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Overview – Increased US tariffs will exacerbate a broader slowdown in exports. China’s economy will also face continued drags from the property downturn and wider deflationary dynamics. A sizeable fiscal loosening will provide a partial offset but won’t …
26th March 2025
Overview – China’s leadership has signalled that policy will be loosened further, which will provide a near-term prop to activity. But we still expect China’s growth to slow next year, because of the more challenging external environment and a further …
17th December 2024
Overview – A pivot towards fiscal and monetary stimulus should support China’s growth in the near-term. But the economy continues to be propped up by investment, still elevated levels of construction, and the willingness of trading partners to allow …
27th September 2024
Overview – China’s economy is on course to expand by 5.5% this year, buoyed by policy support and strong exports. But we remain less sanguine about the medium-term outlook. Domestic Demand – A ramp up in fiscal spending should boost domestic demand in …
25th June 2024
Overview – China’s economy has fared better recently and policy support is likely to remain a near-term prop to growth. But we remain less sanguine about the medium-term outlook. Domestic Demand – State investment can make up for lacklustre consumption, …
27th March 2024
Overview – China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue into 2024, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with property construction likely to continue to decline and …
6th December 2023
Overview – China’s economy is regaining some momentum after stalling for a brief period during the summer. A step up in policy support looks set to deliver a modest cyclical recovery but trend growth remains under pressure. Consumer Spending – …
27th September 2023
Overview – China’s reopening recovery is struggling for momentum and quarter-on-quarter growth will be subdued for the rest of the year. But with policymakers likely to step up support soon, the economy should still make some headway. Consumer Spending – …
28th June 2023
Overview – Much of the economic boost from China’s reopening has already happened. While there is still some upside to consumer and services activity, weakened balance sheets and limited policy support mean the recovery will probably fizzle out by …
29th March 2023
Overview – The authorities are making policy changes to address two of the key drags on China’s economy, the zero-COVID policy and the property sector downturn. But it will be a while before these efforts bear fruit. And in the meantime, the economy will …
9th December 2022
Overview - We expect greater stimulus next year. But with the zero-COVID policy here to stay, an abrupt turnaround in property construction unlikely and exports set to fall, policymakers face an uphill battle. Growth will remain depressed. Consumer …
21st October 2022
Overview – Activity has bounced back from lockdowns but China’s economic recovery will become more challenging from here on as exports turn from tailwind to headwind and the property downturn deepens. Policy restraint means that stimulus will not fully …
28th July 2022
Overview - China’s economy rebounded sharply from the initial COVID-19 outbreak. The recovery will be slower and more muted this time, even if the ongoing COVID outbreak is successfully quashed, as less policy support is planned and exporters face a …
26th April 2022
Overview - China will be buffeted in the first half of 2022 by COVID outbreaks and a further slowdown in property construction. Policy support should improve the picture later in the year, but mounting structural headwinds will limit the extent of any …
26th January 2022
Overview - The economy slowed sharply in Q3. Weakness in services is already reversing as virus controls have been relaxed again. But industry and construction are on the cusp of a deeper downturn that could pull down China’s growth to just 3% next year. …
26th October 2021
Overview – China’s economy has been defying gravity thanks to elevated global demand but this support may now be fading. Meanwhile, last year’s policy easing has been fully reversed. An abrupt slowdown is not likely to follow, but highly-indebted firms, …
23rd July 2021
Download the pdf for the full Outlook Overview – After treading water in Q1, activity should pick up again this quarter following the relaxation of domestic travel restrictions. But growth will be more modest than most expect over the next couple of years …
28th April 2021
Overview – China’s economy will continue to beat most expectations in the near term, as households spend more freely. But momentum will soften during the second half of the year as props from stimulus and exports fade. Consumer Spending – Household …
21st January 2021
Download the pdf for the full Outlook Overview – China has become the first major economy to return to its pre-virus growth path, thanks to its rapid containment of COVID-19 and effective stimulus response. The rebound initially leaned heavily on …
12th October 2020
China’s success in containing COVID-19 and the short duration of its lockdown have enabled its economy to rebound rapidly. With policy support set to remain strong, China is on course to return to its pre-virus path by the end of the year, far earlier …
29th July 2020
Overview – After the deepest downturn since the Cultural Revolution in Q1, China’s economy will return to growth this quarter. But with labour market strains holding back domestic demand and external headwinds intensifying, output is still set to contract …
15th April 2020
Overview – Cooling property construction is likely to weigh on economic activity in the coming quarters. But with external demand starting to stabilise, the slowdown should be gradual, as long as the coronavirus outbreak is contained. External Demand – …
23rd January 2020
China Overview – China’s economy has remained resilient in recent months. But with the boom in property construction on borrowed time and headwinds from higher food inflation and cooling global demand likely to intensify further, it is hard to see how a …
10th October 2019
30th September 2019
China Overview – China’s economy has stabilised in recent months thanks to surprisingly resilient property construction. But real estate developers will probably scale back the pace of new projects before long. And with headwinds from US tariffs and …
22nd July 2019
