Filtered by Subscriptions: Africa Economics Use setting Africa Economics
South African policymakers are being forced to delay the introduction of a long-planned national minimum wage bill. Overall, we think that the bill is probably a positive step for the country. The government’s failure to implement it on time, however, is …
17th April 2018
After a recent drought-related slowdown, Uganda’s economy will pick up over the next few years as policy becomes more supportive and oil production plans are stepped up. We think that growth will exceed consensus expectations in 2018 and 2019. … Uganda: …
16th April 2018
We expect that economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will continue to accelerate in 2018. This recovery will be driven largely by South Africa and Nigeria, where growth is set to pick up by more than most expect. Performances elsewhere in the region will …
13th April 2018
Inflation in Nigeria slowed sharply last month, and we think that it will continue to ease over the coming months. This will prompt policymakers to cut their key rate from 14.00% to 12.00% by year end. … Nigeria Consumer Prices …
12th April 2018
Growth in South Africa’s manufacturing sector cooled in February, providing another sign that the economy faltered a bit in Q1. Even so, we retain the view that growth will pick up later this year. … South Africa Manufacturing …
10th April 2018
Many analysts now talk of a recovery ‘in Africa’; but faster regional growth this year will be almost entirely due to accelerations in Nigeria & South Africa. Given weak economic links within Africa, this headline figure tells us little about activity …
5th April 2018
Today’s Nigerian MPC press conference supported our view that policymakers will cut rates later this year. We think that the key rate will fall from 14.00% – at which it was left today – to 13.00% in June. … Nigeria: Rates on hold, but cuts likely later …
4th April 2018
South Africa’s March manufacturing PMI was surprisingly weak. We retain the view, however, that growth remained strong in Q1. They survey has, after all, given misleadingly negative readings recently. … South Africa & Nigeria Manufacturing PMI …
3rd April 2018
March was a mixed months for African markets. While most currencies performed well, dollar bonds sold off. Most local markets did, however, gain over Q1 as a whole. … S. African ratings reprieve provides boost for …
29th March 2018
Today’s 25bp interest rate cut does not signal the start of a new easing cycle. We think that policymakers were attempting to seize the opportunity for a quick cut before inflation picks up later this year. … South Africa: Rate cut will be a …
28th March 2018
Today’s unexpectedly aggressive interest rate cut – which took the key rate to 18.00% – suggest that the current loosening cycle has further to run. We expect that the rate will fall to 16.00% by year end. … Ghana: Easing cycle …
26th March 2018
Recently-released GDP figures show that growth strengthened in both Nigeria and South Africa in Q4. The pickup in growth in Nigeria was mostly due to stronger activity in the non-oil sector, which compensated for a softer performance from the oil …
23rd March 2018
South Africa’s seems to have economy slowed in January, but the weakness of recent figures was exaggerated by the comparison with a strong performance at the end of 2017. We think that growth will accelerate over the course of 2018 as a whole. … South …
22nd March 2018
Political leaders from across Africa have gathered in Rwanda to sign an ambitious new trade pact. The African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) has been billed as the first step to creating a single African market that will bring down costs and …
21st March 2018
Africa’s public debt problems are currently concentrated in Mozambique, Angola, Ghana, Nigeria, & Zambia. Elsewhere, however, it would only take a small shock to prompt a crisis (Kenya & South Africa both look fragile). Attention has focused on the threat …
Weaker South African inflation (which slowed to 4.0% y/y in February) will add to calls for an interest rate cut this month. But we think that pending VAT hikes and a widening current account deficit will cause policymakers will probably hold off for now. …
20th March 2018
Today’s rate cut will be followed by another cut later this year. The pace of further easing will depend on when the government amends or abandons its controversial cap on lending rates. … Kenya: Easing cycle restarts, CBK mute on lending …
19th March 2018
Slower inflation and a political breakthrough have opened the way to interest rate cuts in Nigeria. We expect that policymakers will lower their key rate from 14.00% to 13.00% in Q2. … Nigeria Consumer Prices …
14th March 2018
Manufacturing output growth in South Africa jumped to 2.5% y/y in January, supporting our view that the economy retained momentum at the beginning of the year. … South Africa Manufacturing …
13th March 2018
Parliamentary discussions on land reform have prompted much breathless commentary. But, while the proposed changes remain unclear, a mushy compromise is more likely than a Zimbabwe-style land grab. … South Africa: Land reform fears are …
8th March 2018
South African Q4 GDP figures were better than even our own above-consensus forecast. We expect that the economy will retain momentum in the coming quarters, and beat consensus expectations in 2018. … S. Africa: Growth already gaining steam in late …
6th March 2018
Kenya’s public debt load is not particularly large, but the recent run-up in debt is clearly not sustainable. Our core view is that the government will tighten policy and that the debt burden will stabilise at about 60% of GDP. But the risk of a messier …
5th March 2018
The rise in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI survey – which jumped to 50.8 in February – supports our view that the economy is gaining momentum. Nigerian surveys released yesterday were less positive. … South Africa Manufacturing PMI …
1st March 2018
The market impact of February’s political drama in South Africa was limited; investors had already priced in Jacob Zuma’s February 14th resignation. Instead, moves in markets across Africa were mostly driven by the sharp fall – and subsequent recovery – …
28th February 2018
The weaker-than-expected pick-up in Nigerian GDP growth in Q4, to 1.9% y/y, masked an encouraging improvement in the non-oil sector. There are signs that the recovery gathered pace at the start of this year and our forecast for growth over 2018 as a …
27th February 2018
Attention over the past month has focused on political developments in South Africa and (to an admittedly lesser extent) Ethiopia. After refusing to heed repeated calls to reign, South African President Jacob Zuma finally agreed to leave office …
26th February 2018
African economies entered a cyclical upturn last year, and we think that they will outperform consensus expectations in 2018 and 2019. But their long-term outlook is less rosy than that of many analysts. Talk of the region as the “next China” are well …
23rd February 2018
South Africa’s budget suggests that President Cyril Ramaphosa is putting a renewed emphasis on narrowing the fiscal deficit. We think that the shortfall will narrow in the short term, but that the government’s longer-term outlook is too rosy. … South …
21st February 2018
Nigeria’s economy finally exited recession in the middle of 2017, but growth remained very weak. The latest figures, however, suggest that the economy accelerated going into the start of this year. This supports our view that growth will exceed consensus …
20th February 2018
The resignation of embattled South African President Jacob Zuma last night has provided a boost to local markets. His successor inherits an economy that is already well into a cyclical upswing. Over the longer-term, we think that the prospects for a big …
15th February 2018
Attention in South Africa is firmly focused on news that the ANC will vote President Jacob Zuma out of office on Thursday. But the political drama has distracted from a marked cyclical improvement in economic growth and the end of last year. … S. Africa: …
14th February 2018
Party leaders’ formal call for President Jacob Zuma to resign will further expedite his replacement by Cyril Ramaphosa. But the precise timing and nature of his removal from office remains unclear. In this Update we explain what will come next, and the …
13th February 2018
South African output data for December were mixed, but we think that the economy held up well in Q4. Strong manufacturing growth probably offset the weaker performance of the mining sector. … S. Africa: Mining slumps, but manufacturing picks …
8th February 2018
The worsening drought in the Western Cape threatens to unleash a humanitarian crisis in Cape Town. But even an acute crisis probably wouldn’t be enough to snuff out South Africa’s economic recovery. … Cape Town: Drought unlikely to derail SA …
5th February 2018
The continued recovery of South Africa’s PMI – which rose to 49.9 in January – supports our view that the economy is in the early stages of a cyclical recovery. … South Africa Manufacturing PMI …
1st February 2018
Angola’s recent devaluation has not gone far enough, and we expect that the kwanza will fall further this year. Currencies elsewhere in Africa had a pretty strong start to the year. … Africa: Angola grabs the headlines in early …
31st January 2018
We expect that economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will continue to accelerate in 2018. This recovery will be driven largely by faster growth in South Africa and Nigeria, the region’s two biggest economies. Indeed, our views on South Africa are …
29th January 2018
Since his election late last year, President João Lourenço has embarked on a surprisingly bold programme of economic reforms. In this Watch we argue that President Lourenço’s reform plans will help to boost medium-term growth, but will push the economy …
25th January 2018
South African inflation edged up to 4.7% in December, but we expect that price pressures will ease in 2018. The next interest rate move will be a cut, though we think this will come after a long pause. … South Africa CPI …
24th January 2018
Most of the data released over the past month suggested that African economies strengthened in late 2017. Q3 GDP figures showed faster growth in Ghana, Zambia, Botswana, and Rwanda – with growth in Ghana hitting a three year-high. More timely activity …
23rd January 2018
Interest rates were kept hold today in Kenya & Ghana, and we expect that both will see rate cuts in 2018. Nigeria’s MPC was unable to meet, but policy there will probably also loosen later this year. … Africa: Cuts on the cards in Kenya, Ghana, & …
22nd January 2018
South African policymakers held their key rate at 6.75% today, but a dovish tone suggests that they have abandoned November’s tightening bias. We expect that the next move will be a 25bp cut in early 2019. … South Africa: SARB walks back its hawkish …
18th January 2018
Recent activity data – particularly today’s November retail sales figures – suggest South African growth stayed robust in Q4. This supports our above-consensus view that growth will remain at 2.0% in 2018. … South Africa: Economy remained strong in …
17th January 2018
Nigerian inflation slipped to a 15-month low in December. We expect that policymakers will keep rates on hold in January and March, but will cut rates by 100bp in May as inflation eases further. … Nigeria Consumer Prices …
16th January 2018
The mooted “nationalisation” of South Africa’s Reserve Bank has prompted significant opposition. But the move – which would bring the Bank in line with global norms – would have little economic effect. … S. Africa: SARB nationalisation would have little …
10th January 2018
The election of Cyril Ramaphosa as head of the ANC this week sparked a rally in South African financial markets. Over the region as a whole, Sub-Saharan African assets performed well in 2017 with equities posting strong returns and most currencies either …
20th December 2017
After rallying yesterday ahead of the election of Cyril Ramaphosa as head of the ANC, the rand fell back this morning as investors appreciated the depth of divisions within the ruling party. The currency may weaken further in the coming weeks as the …
19th December 2017
This year saw a tepid, stop-start economic recovery across most of Africa, and figures from recent months suggest that 2017 ended with a whimper rather than a bang. Growth seems to have picked up modestly in the region’s two largest economies, with …
15th December 2017
The narrowing of South Africa’s current account deficit in Q3 (which slipped to 2.3% of GDP) and the weakening of inflation should ease pressure on the South African Reserve Bank to tighten policy. … South Africa Current Account …
14th December 2017
Headlines in South Africaare firmly focused on the country’s political drama, but the most recent activity data suggest that the country’s economy accelerated at the start of Q4. … South Africa: Economy gathered pace at start of …
13th December 2017
