Filtered by Subscriptions: Africa Economics Use setting Africa Economics
Parliamentary discussions on land reform have prompted much breathless commentary. But, while the proposed changes remain unclear, a mushy compromise is more likely than a Zimbabwe-style land grab. … South Africa: Land reform fears are …
8th March 2018
South African Q4 GDP figures were better than even our own above-consensus forecast. We expect that the economy will retain momentum in the coming quarters, and beat consensus expectations in 2018. … S. Africa: Growth already gaining steam in late …
6th March 2018
Kenya’s public debt load is not particularly large, but the recent run-up in debt is clearly not sustainable. Our core view is that the government will tighten policy and that the debt burden will stabilise at about 60% of GDP. But the risk of a messier …
5th March 2018
The rise in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI survey – which jumped to 50.8 in February – supports our view that the economy is gaining momentum. Nigerian surveys released yesterday were less positive. … South Africa Manufacturing PMI …
1st March 2018
The market impact of February’s political drama in South Africa was limited; investors had already priced in Jacob Zuma’s February 14th resignation. Instead, moves in markets across Africa were mostly driven by the sharp fall – and subsequent recovery – …
28th February 2018
The weaker-than-expected pick-up in Nigerian GDP growth in Q4, to 1.9% y/y, masked an encouraging improvement in the non-oil sector. There are signs that the recovery gathered pace at the start of this year and our forecast for growth over 2018 as a …
27th February 2018
Attention over the past month has focused on political developments in South Africa and (to an admittedly lesser extent) Ethiopia. After refusing to heed repeated calls to reign, South African President Jacob Zuma finally agreed to leave office …
26th February 2018
African economies entered a cyclical upturn last year, and we think that they will outperform consensus expectations in 2018 and 2019. But their long-term outlook is less rosy than that of many analysts. Talk of the region as the “next China” are well …
23rd February 2018
South Africa’s budget suggests that President Cyril Ramaphosa is putting a renewed emphasis on narrowing the fiscal deficit. We think that the shortfall will narrow in the short term, but that the government’s longer-term outlook is too rosy. … South …
21st February 2018
Nigeria’s economy finally exited recession in the middle of 2017, but growth remained very weak. The latest figures, however, suggest that the economy accelerated going into the start of this year. This supports our view that growth will exceed consensus …
20th February 2018
The resignation of embattled South African President Jacob Zuma last night has provided a boost to local markets. His successor inherits an economy that is already well into a cyclical upswing. Over the longer-term, we think that the prospects for a big …
15th February 2018
Attention in South Africa is firmly focused on news that the ANC will vote President Jacob Zuma out of office on Thursday. But the political drama has distracted from a marked cyclical improvement in economic growth and the end of last year. … S. Africa: …
14th February 2018
Party leaders’ formal call for President Jacob Zuma to resign will further expedite his replacement by Cyril Ramaphosa. But the precise timing and nature of his removal from office remains unclear. In this Update we explain what will come next, and the …
13th February 2018
South African output data for December were mixed, but we think that the economy held up well in Q4. Strong manufacturing growth probably offset the weaker performance of the mining sector. … S. Africa: Mining slumps, but manufacturing picks …
8th February 2018
The worsening drought in the Western Cape threatens to unleash a humanitarian crisis in Cape Town. But even an acute crisis probably wouldn’t be enough to snuff out South Africa’s economic recovery. … Cape Town: Drought unlikely to derail SA …
5th February 2018
The continued recovery of South Africa’s PMI – which rose to 49.9 in January – supports our view that the economy is in the early stages of a cyclical recovery. … South Africa Manufacturing PMI …
1st February 2018
Angola’s recent devaluation has not gone far enough, and we expect that the kwanza will fall further this year. Currencies elsewhere in Africa had a pretty strong start to the year. … Africa: Angola grabs the headlines in early …
31st January 2018
We expect that economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will continue to accelerate in 2018. This recovery will be driven largely by faster growth in South Africa and Nigeria, the region’s two biggest economies. Indeed, our views on South Africa are …
29th January 2018
Since his election late last year, President João Lourenço has embarked on a surprisingly bold programme of economic reforms. In this Watch we argue that President Lourenço’s reform plans will help to boost medium-term growth, but will push the economy …
25th January 2018
South African inflation edged up to 4.7% in December, but we expect that price pressures will ease in 2018. The next interest rate move will be a cut, though we think this will come after a long pause. … South Africa CPI …
24th January 2018
Most of the data released over the past month suggested that African economies strengthened in late 2017. Q3 GDP figures showed faster growth in Ghana, Zambia, Botswana, and Rwanda – with growth in Ghana hitting a three year-high. More timely activity …
23rd January 2018
Interest rates were kept hold today in Kenya & Ghana, and we expect that both will see rate cuts in 2018. Nigeria’s MPC was unable to meet, but policy there will probably also loosen later this year. … Africa: Cuts on the cards in Kenya, Ghana, & …
22nd January 2018
South African policymakers held their key rate at 6.75% today, but a dovish tone suggests that they have abandoned November’s tightening bias. We expect that the next move will be a 25bp cut in early 2019. … South Africa: SARB walks back its hawkish …
18th January 2018
Recent activity data – particularly today’s November retail sales figures – suggest South African growth stayed robust in Q4. This supports our above-consensus view that growth will remain at 2.0% in 2018. … South Africa: Economy remained strong in …
17th January 2018
Nigerian inflation slipped to a 15-month low in December. We expect that policymakers will keep rates on hold in January and March, but will cut rates by 100bp in May as inflation eases further. … Nigeria Consumer Prices …
16th January 2018
The mooted “nationalisation” of South Africa’s Reserve Bank has prompted significant opposition. But the move – which would bring the Bank in line with global norms – would have little economic effect. … S. Africa: SARB nationalisation would have little …
10th January 2018
The election of Cyril Ramaphosa as head of the ANC this week sparked a rally in South African financial markets. Over the region as a whole, Sub-Saharan African assets performed well in 2017 with equities posting strong returns and most currencies either …
20th December 2017
After rallying yesterday ahead of the election of Cyril Ramaphosa as head of the ANC, the rand fell back this morning as investors appreciated the depth of divisions within the ruling party. The currency may weaken further in the coming weeks as the …
19th December 2017
This year saw a tepid, stop-start economic recovery across most of Africa, and figures from recent months suggest that 2017 ended with a whimper rather than a bang. Growth seems to have picked up modestly in the region’s two largest economies, with …
15th December 2017
The narrowing of South Africa’s current account deficit in Q3 (which slipped to 2.3% of GDP) and the weakening of inflation should ease pressure on the South African Reserve Bank to tighten policy. … South Africa Current Account …
14th December 2017
Headlines in South Africaare firmly focused on the country’s political drama, but the most recent activity data suggest that the country’s economy accelerated at the start of Q4. … South Africa: Economy gathered pace at start of …
13th December 2017
Mining production rose by a stronger-than-expected 5.2% y/y in October. This provides the first solid sign that the economy retained momentum as it entered the fourth quarter. … South Africa Mining …
7th December 2017
Long simmering political tensions within the African National Congress (ANC) will come to the boil next week when the ruling party meets for its national conference. But while the summit has cast a long shadow over South Africa this year, we think that …
6th December 2017
Growth in South Africa’s economy remained strong in Q3, suggesting that the country’s recovery is gaining traction. This supports our view that growth will surprise to the upside in 2018. … South Africa: Economy getting into …
5th December 2017
The small pick-up in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI last month, coming on the back of an improvement in October, suggests that the sector’s slump eased further in Q4. … South Africa Manufacturing …
1st December 2017
South Africa’s latest ratings downgrade wasn’t as bad as the markets had expected; the rand rallied after the country’s local currency debt was cut to junk by S&P but left as investment grade by Moody’s. Over the longer term, we doubt that the latest …
30th November 2017
November was a pretty bad month for both Nigeria and South Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa’s two largest economies. Economic growth in Nigeria remained very weak in Q3, and entirely dependent on the recent increase in oil output. Despite the government’s …
29th November 2017
Fears that bond yields could jump sharply and that the rand could sell off if Moody’s and S&P cut South Africa’s local currency debt to junk status later today look a bit overblown. Much of the bad news already appears to be priced into the market. … …
24th November 2017
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) made it pretty clear at today’s MPC meeting, at which the policy rate was left unchanged at 6.75%, that any additional easing is off the cards. As a result, we have taken the rate cuts that we had previously expected …
23rd November 2017
The decline in South African headline inflation last month, to 4.8% y/y, and softening core price pressures may temper expectations in the market for interest rate hikes in the next few months. But with inflation set to rise this month on the back of the …
22nd November 2017
The weaker-than-expected pick-up in Nigerian GDP growth in Q3, to 1.4% y/y, was driven entirely by a rebound in oil production, while the non-oil sector weakened. We don’t think these data will affect tomorrow’s central bank interest rate decision (at …
20th November 2017
The military takeover in Zimbabwe last night has drawn attention to the escalating political crisis in the country. In this Update, we look at the economic angle and explain why the latest developments are unlikely to have a substantial impact on the rest …
15th November 2017
South African activity data for September were disappointing, but it looks like the economy expanded by a decent 2% q/q saar over Q3 as a whole. More timely figures for October suggest that the economy has since strengthened. And while events in Zimbabwe …
Last month’s Nigerian inflation reading of 15.9% y/y means that, although the central bank has signalled that it intends to cut interest rates, this is unlikely to come at next week’s meeting. We think monetary easing is more likely to begin in early …
An improved performance by several African economies – notably Nigeria – on the World Bank’s Doing Business index has resulted in some very positive headlines. But we would caution against assigning too much weight to the annual index. … Africa’s business …
10th November 2017
South African output data for September were disappointing. But a stronger performance earlier in Q3 probably kept headline growth pretty robust – by local standards – over the course of last quarter. … South Africa: Output data held up in …
9th November 2017
The first draft of Nigeria’s 2018 budget suggests that the government will – yet again – set itself a spending target that is unlikely to be met. Borrowing will remain pretty limited, but the shift towards external debt will increase exchange rate risks. …
7th November 2017
South Africa’s manufacturing PMI recovered a bit in October, but remained very low. Given that it has overstated the weakness of the economy in recent quarters, we wouldn’t read much into today’s reading. … South Africa Manufacturing …
1st November 2017
Political shocks hit markets in South Africa and Kenya in recent weeks. Markets elsewhere in Sub-Saharan Africa also performed pretty poorly over the course of October, though they remain up on the year. … South Africa budget, Kenya election jolt …
31st October 2017
Kenya’s ongoing political crisis is drawing attention to its fragile balance sheet. Our core view is that policymakers should be able to manage the situation. Even if the currency were to weaken sharply, the resulting rise in the country’s FX debt burden …
