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This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … A cautionary note on Japanese equities …
9th April 2013
The much more ambitious policy stance adopted by the Bank of Japan should keep the yen on a weakening trend, but the scope for a further boost to Japan’s stock market may be limited. … More downside for yen than upside for …
8th April 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … A further significant fall in the yen probably lies ahead …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US non-farm payrolls probably registered a healthy gain in March …
5th April 2013
Emerging market assets continued to underperform in March. The "stripped" spread of the JP Morgan EMBI+ Global Index over Treasuries rose to its highest level since late September 2012, while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index of equities dropped by 1% in …
4th April 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Spring slowdown in the US economy would be no cause for alarm …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US dollar's popularity continues to grow …
3rd April 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bank of Japan unlikely to meet high expectations …
29th March 2013
The two-day meeting of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board which concludes next Thursday (4th April) will be the first under Haruhiko Kuroda’s leadership. Unfortunately, the markets’ expectations of the new Governor are so high that they will be almost …
28th March 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Germany’s labour market weathering the euro-zone recession …
We doubt that the US stock market will fare well in the run-up to, and during the early stages of, the next tightening of monetary policy. Admittedly, this would buck the trend since 1970, when, on average, the market peaked after first rate hike. And …
27th March 2013
Although the profit share in the US corporate sector is likely to have remained at a very high level in Q4 2012, we continue to expect margins to be squeezed this year. Further gains in the stock market would then depend on a continued rise in its …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US outperforming as Cyprus uncertainty holds back Europe …
The events in Cyprus provide another very visible – albeit extreme – illustration of the financial problems which are holding back the global recovery. Indeed, even though the Cypriot economy itself is tiny, the ramifications could still be felt …
26th March 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Divergence of developed and emerging equities grows …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Low market volatility may only be a temporary lull …
25th March 2013
There are several possible explanations for the declines in volatility in financial markets over the last year or so. Some have argued that volatility has simply returned to historical norms. Others have gone further and suggested that volatility might …
22nd March 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … FOMC in no hurry to taper asset purchases …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … BoE's updated remit should pose no threat to UK gilts …
21st March 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Budget should be a fairly gloomy affair …
20th March 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will there be more contagion from the crisis in Cyprus? …
19th March 2013
The negative reaction in Europe’s financial markets to the decision to "bail in" depositors in Cyprus has been fairly muted so far. Admittedly, the euro fell below $1.30 against the dollar on Monday, banking shares in Spain posted declines of up to 5%, …
18th March 2013
A further escalation of the crisis in tiny Cyprus may have global implications well beyond the immediate market reactions today. It could influence the course of fiscal policy in the UK and monetary policy in the US, sap appetite for the “Abe trade” in …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the pound continue to rebound? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Don't bank on further strong gains in the US stock market …
15th March 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What next for emerging market equities? …
14th March 2013
While the recent underperformance of emerging market (EM) equities has been surprising given the strength of developed market (DM) equities, we think it may continue for a while yet. … Is the underperformance of EM equities set to …
13th March 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Commodity prices not the only signal of economic fragility …
The divergence between the strength of the prices of equities and the weakness of the prices of industrial metals, including copper, does not necessarily tell us anything new about the sustainability of the stock market rally or the health of the global …
12th March 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … China’s economy may be faltering even sooner than we thought …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Strong US Employment Report gives the dollar a lift …
11th March 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rebound in the euro unlikely to last …
8th March 2013
Today’s Flow of Funds report published by the Federal Reserve suggests that the stock market is significantly overvalued by historical standards. We think the degree of overvaluation is much less than meets the eye. However, we suspect that other factors …
7th March 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How vulnerable is sterling to a resumption of QE? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … JGB rally may soon draw to a close …
6th March 2013
The yen’s safe haven status has been challenged by expectations of aggressive monetary expansion by the Bank of Japan and the swing in Japan’s trade balance from surplus to deficit. However, even if some overseas investors struggle to see Japan as a safe …
5th March 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bernanke highlights the risks to bondholders …
The 10-year US Treasury yield fell back in February, reversing about half of its rise in January. The drop was partly prompted by safe-haven demand following the inconclusive result of the Italian general election. It was also aided by the Fed Chairman’s …
4th March 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US labour market slowly strengthening …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rally in euro-zone equities may not last …
1st March 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Over to you, Mr Kuroda …
28th February 2013
The partial rebound in the yen and latest wobble in the Nikkei may simply be a pause in the trends of weakness in the Japanese currency and associated strength in equities, which would not be unusual following moves as big as those seen since last …
27th February 2013
We think the biggest falls in the pound may now be behind us. Granted, Moody’s decision to strip the UK of its AAA rating drove the currency down even further early on Monday. But sterling was fairly stable yesterday and could benefit soon from a shift in …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Italian government bonds come under further fire …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How worried is Bernanke about the costs of quantitative easing? …
26th February 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Attention turns to Bernanke …
25th February 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US and China indicate growing caution on monetary stimulus …
22nd February 2013
Despite the uncertainty created by the latest FOMC minutes, we do not believe that the Fed will be in any hurry to halt its additional asset purchases completely. Nonetheless, the reaction in the markets to the possibility of an early end to QE3 has …
21st February 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Sterling’s slide not just due to the “Carney short” …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Three-way split at the Bank of England? …
20th February 2013
