Filtered by Subscriptions: Bonds & Equities Use setting Bonds & Equities
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fears of sterling crisis look overdone …
9th July 2013
The recent weakness in the pound against the US dollar has produced the usual flurry of headlines about an imminent sterling crisis. However, while the relative prospects for monetary policy in the US may continue to support the dollar, we don’t expect …
8th July 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US Treasuries spooked by strong payroll data …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Forward guidance gets the green light …
5th July 2013
One notable development this year has been the poor showing of emerging market equities, which have significantly underperformed developed market equities despite the absence of a major financial or economic crisis. However, we think the worst of the …
4th July 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone periphery’s troubles far from over …
The US S&P 500 fell by more than 1% in June in response to growing concerns about the Fed’s policy stance. We forecast the index to end this year at 1,600, which is close to its current level, but project that it will then climb to 1,750 by the end of …
3rd July 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … A cautious Fed should provide some support for Treasuries …
We think the US federal funds rate will have been raised to about 4% by the end of 2017. However, based on a decomposition of the Treasury yield curve, it looks like the bond market is more or less braced for such an outcome already. What’s more, we …
2nd July 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US passes first of this week’s “QE3 tapering tests” …
The slump in the price of gold to less than $1,200 per ounce on Friday forced us to take a more cautious view of the prospects for the precious metal. Nonetheless, our revised forecasts assume a bit of a bounce in the second half of the year and a slow …
1st July 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Calm after the storm …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK recession deeper than previously thought …
28th June 2013
Japanese investors are perhaps more likely to follow global trends than to lead them, but the Bank of Japan will help keep global monetary conditions loose even when the Fed starts to taper QE3. … How far can the Bank of Japan's QE replace the …
27th June 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Pressure on most LATAM currencies may not relent for long …
The plunge in emerging market equity prices has driven the price/earnings ratios of the MSCI Emerging Asia Index and MSCI EMEA Index down towards their lowest levels since late 2011 and the earlier financial crisis. As a result, they are now much further …
26th June 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Market turmoil yet to take its toll on US consumer confidence …
There has not been much differentiation between bond markets during the recent US-led sell-off. But over time we expect local economic conditions and domestic monetary policy to play a larger role, allowing UK gilts in particular to outperform. Japanese …
25th June 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … No reason to expect a “bloodbath” in the US Treasury market …
The recent surge in long-term US Treasury yields will certainly have raised a few eyebrows. However, if the Fed’s forthcoming approach to unwinding unconventional monetary policy stimulus bears any resemblance to its strategy in the wake of the …
24th June 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the worst soon be over for emerging equity markets? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed to tread cautiously …
21st June 2013
In the light of the changing prospects for US monetary policy and recent improvements in the outlook for the advanced economies, we are revising our bond yield forecasts higher. However, we continue to expect yields to remain relatively low. What’s more, …
20th June 2013
Emerging market equities have come under further pressure today after last night’s FOMC statement. Although the prospect of a tapering of the US central bank’s quantitative easing could continue to bear down on prices, we think the worst of the sell-off …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What’s really behind the spike in China’s interbank rates? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed likely to refrain from tapering its asset purchases for now …
19th June 2013
Recent data suggest that net capital inflows into emerging markets (EMs) fell significantly in May and in the first half of June amid renewed concerns about a potential tapering of the Fed’s asset purchases. Although the scaling back of the US central …
18th June 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Focus on the Fed …
17th June 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed taper fears (mostly) overdone …
14th June 2013
We will be reviewing all our key market forecasts in the coming days, but recent developments have underlined several of the global and regional themes that we have been stressing for some time. … Making sense of the market …
13th June 2013
The rebound in the yen and associated weakness in Japanese equities reflect fears about the outlooks for monetary policy in both Japan and the US. However, these fears look increasingly overdone. … What's behind the rebound in the …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US retail sales should have been healthier in May …
We expect the Fed to start tapering its asset purchases around September 2013 and halt them in H1 2014. Given the large amount of Treasuries – not to mention mortgage-backed securities – the central bank has bought since the inception of QE3, who will …
12th June 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How big a deal is the tapering of QE3? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … EM currencies come under further fire …
11th June 2013
Emerging market currencies have generally been hit hard over the past month, with sentiment further souring in the wake of the latest US FOMC minutes. We think many will remain under pressure this year as concerns about a scaling back of QE build and …
10th June 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bond market bloodbath unlikely …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japanese investors continue to sell foreign bonds …
7th June 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US labour market shows some signs of faltering …
6th June 2013
The markets’ honeymoon with the Abe government has ended, but it seems premature to consider filing for divorce. Indeed, the worst of the correction in the Nikkei may soon be over. … What next for the …
5th June 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Worst could be over for the Nikkei …
The 10-year Treasury yield leapt by more than 45bp in May, breaching the 2% level. US government bonds were partly undermined by the minutes of the FOMC’s latest meeting, which suggested a number of Fed officials may be willing to trim the pace of the …
4th June 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Political unrest drives down Turkey's stock market …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US non-farm payrolls should show a solid gain for May …
3rd June 2013
The first estimate of Q1 US corporate profits published yesterday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis is another warning sign that the second half of 2013 may be much tougher for equities than the first. … Falling "narrow" profit share a warning sign …
31st May 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Oil prices to fall further (regardless of OPEC) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Too soon to call the turn in global bond yields …
30th May 2013
The recent surges in the yields of US Treasury and Japanese government bonds have led some to ask whether this might be the beginning of a prolonged bear market. Yields should of course rebound to more normal levels, eventually. But we think they are more …
29th May 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US consumer confidence surges to a five-year high …
Despite the global rally over most of the past month, emerging market equities have continued to underperform developed market equities. We expect this pattern to persist. … EM equities set to underperform …
28th May 2013
