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A number of equity markets in Emerging Europe – Poland’s in particular – have proved relatively resilient during the recent emerging market sell-off. We think they may continue to outperform equities in other emerging market regions, even when prices …
27th August 2013
By 2014, the Netherlands will have seen an unprecedented fall in household spending. The resulting weakness in the Dutch economy will undermine attempts to address euro-zone imbalances, while beleaguered Dutch voters may harden their opposition to …
26th August 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US Treasuries stabilise after FOMC minutes …
23rd August 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … FOMC minutes may have shed more light on timing of QE3 taper …
22nd August 2013
We doubt the recent significant underperformance of Brazil’s local currency government bonds will last. A surge in yields has been mainly driven by expectations of much more aggressive monetary tightening, which we do not expect to materialise. … Has …
21st August 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … A full-blown crisis is unlikely in India’s equity and bond markets …
The respite enjoyed by emerging markets (EMs) during the first half of July has not lasted. Indeed, net portfolio inflows remained negative over the course of the month as a whole according to EPFR Global. That being said, the picture was mixed at the …
20th August 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the future really that much brighter for US equities than bonds? …
The year-to-date returns from US equities and (7-10 year) US Treasuries are plus 18% and minus 6%, respectively. Judging by recent shifts in asset allocation, many expect the superior performance of equities to continue. While possible, we doubt this …
19th August 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Investors’ focus turns to Jackson Hole …
Euro-zone equities have staged something of a revival so far in the second half of 2013, returning over 10% and outperforming US equities. Relatively low valuations have probably played an important role in fuelling the growing demand for equities in an …
16th August 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japan’s likely policy mix points to renewed yen weakness …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the future bright for euro-zone equities? …
15th August 2013
Today’s euro-zone GDP data provided a further small boost to the region’s stock markets, which have been enjoying something of a revival in the second half of 2013. However, the economic outlook in the euro-zone remains challenging and the debt crisis is …
14th August 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Are UK Gilts set to benefit from falling inflation? …
13th August 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK consumer price inflation may fall to 2% by year-end …
There are many factors behind the recent partial recovery in the yen and associated weakness in the Nikkei, but perhaps the most important is fading expectations of more aggressive monetary easing by the Bank of Japan. However, we continue to expect …
12th August 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK MPC was probably united over forward guidance …
Dollar-denominated emerging market government bonds have recovered some poise over the past month. This has been driven primarily by a decline in credit spreads, which have fallen significantly from their recent peaks. However, emerging market …
8th August 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK MPC’s forward guidance has little initial impact …
The UK MPC’s "forward guidance" had little initial impact on Gilts on Wednesday but we still think it will help them to outperform US Treasuries over time. That being said, we do not expect the 10-year Gilt yield to fall throughout our forecast window. …
7th August 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Have US GDP revisions affected the valuation of the stock market? …
The recent change to the accounting treatment of some types of "intellectual property products" in the US national income and product accounts has resulted in a decline in the price/earnings ratio of the US stock market. (We suggested this would happen in …
6th August 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What next for EM dollar-denominated corporate bonds? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed still likely to taper QE3 in September …
5th August 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the decoupling of government bonds continue? …
2nd August 2013
A slow but steady removal of monetary stimulus in the US over the next few years is likely to have important implications for a wide variety of financial market instruments. It should buoy the dollar, put gradual upward pressure on the yields of …
1st August 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed to tread cautiously in “tapering” its bond purchases …
Dollar-denominated emerging market government bonds underperformed similarly-rated US dollar corporate bonds significantly in the recent sell-off. Most of this underperformance has not been unwound, even though sentiment towards emerging markets has …
31st July 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US economy probably slowed sharply in Q2 …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Recent weakness in the dollar unlikely to be sustained …
30th July 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Major central banks unlikely to make radical policy shifts …
29th July 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Sterling unlikely to suffer from forward guidance …
26th July 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the rally in US equities set to run out of steam? …
25th July 2013
Net capital inflows into emerging markets (EMs) were significantly negative in June as investors fretted about a change in the Fed’s monetary policy. Although the selling continued in the early part of July, it appears to have subsided in the past week or …
23rd July 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What to make of mixed signals on Emerging European rates …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Gold and sterling benefit from dollar weakness …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … From Detroit to China… …
22nd July 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Abe-led coalition heading for Upper House majority …
19th July 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bernanke keeps Fed's options open …
18th July 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Three central banks in focus …
17th July 2013
Our research has consistently emphasised that monetary conditions in the major advanced economies are likely to remain exceptionally loose for several years even after the US Fed ends its asset purchases under QE3. The consensus has now swung around to …
16th July 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Still no sign of rebalancing in China …
We are often asked for examples of bold non-consensus calls that have been proved right. This Update provides a selection from the last few months across a range of our services. The publications referred to are available to clients of the individual …
15th July 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bernanke has another chance …
Many of the criticisms of the US Fed’s recent communications on monetary policy are, in our view, unfair. However, the difficulty that the media and markets have found in drawing clear conclusions from FOMC statements and Chairman Bernanke’s speeches is …
12th July 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the post-FOMC minutes respite for Treasuries set to last? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Industrial commodity prices have further to fall …
11th July 2013
Yields of dollar-denominated emerging market government bonds have surged since late May, reflecting increases in both underlying US Treasury yields and credit spreads. But while Treasury yields have remained high in recent weeks, credit spreads have …
10th July 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Earnings are unlikely to provide a boost to the US stock market …
