Filtered by Subscriptions: Bonds & Equities Use setting Bonds & Equities
Bond markets have reacted positively to election results in Argentina which effectively mean that the incumbent, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, will be unable to serve beyond her current term ending in 2015. Indeed, the prospect of a more …
27th November 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK economic recovery will probably start to broaden out …
The People’s Bank of China (PBC) recently asserted that its intervention in the currency market would “basically” end. If this proves to be the case, it would represent a significant change of heart given that the central bank appears to have accumulated …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK growth in Q3 probably strong but unbalanced …
At first glance the UK stock market still appears to be attractively valued, despite a double-digit price rise so far this year. But its valuation has been flattered by strong earnings growth in certain heavily-weighted sectors. If this growth is …
26th November 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Deal with Iran should eventually help oil prices to fall …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … A shift in Fed's policy mix could reassure bond investors …
25th November 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … China currency liberalisation unlikely to affect US Treasuries …
22nd November 2013
Labour’s share of income has plummeted in the United States during the past decade. This has provided an important prop to the stock market because its flipside has been a surge in the share of income paid to the owners of capital, which includes …
21st November 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed minutes may shed light on unemployment threshold debate …
EPFR Global data reveal that ETF and mutual fund portfolio flows into emerging market (EM) bonds were negative in October for the fifth month running. By contrast, flows into EM equities were marginally positive for the second month in a row. … Bonds …
20th November 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Underperformance of EM equities unlikely to persist …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Reform package unlikely to boost China's stock market for long …
19th November 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … No evidence of large bubbles in US stock or housing markets …
18th November 2013
There is significant cross-country variation in the price/earnings ratios of euro-zone stock markets. This variation appears to be at least partly justified by differences in the average credit ratings of the companies in those markets. … Credit …
15th November 2013
The Nikkei closed back above 15,000 today, helped by a renewed decline in the yen past 100 to the dollar. We expect Japanese equities to advance further and the currency to continue to weaken, due largely to domestic fiscal and monetary developments. …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Weak euro-zone growth to weigh on the euro …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone economy probably expanded in Q3, but only just …
14th November 2013
The earnings yield of a stock market index should be closely related to the average real yield of long-dated bonds issued by its constituents. In the US, we think the latter is likely to rise significantly during our forecast window. Although the gap …
13th November 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Inflation Report could temporarily raise rate expectations …
The small rise in most emerging market equities over the past month was eclipsed by the 4% or so rise in developed market equities. So far in 2013, emerging equity markets have underperformed developed markets by over 15%. This is a greater degree of …
12th November 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CPI inflation probably dropped sharply in October …
There is growing speculation that when the Fed eventually announces a tapering of its asset purchases, it will simultaneously lower its unemployment rate threshold. A commitment to keep rates lower for longer might have some success in anchoring long-term …
11th November 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed taper may not be the watershed that many assume …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … More downside ahead for the euro …
8th November 2013
Financial repression - official policies that lower artificially a government's cost of borrowing - is likely to play an important ongoing role in liquidating high levels of public debt in advanced economies. It is also set to distort the prices and …
7th November 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … ECB likely to soften stance but refrain from action …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Recovery in UK industrial production is likely …
6th November 2013
The extension of the debt ceiling and continued indications that the Fed will not reduce the pace of its asset purchases for a while helped buoy a range of assets in October. Equities benefited more than bonds: the S&P 500 rose by around 5%, while the …
5th November 2013
The question of exactly when the US Fed will start to taper its asset purchases under QE3 has understandably been the focus of much analysis and speculation (including by ourselves). There are six reasons why the timing of the first reduction – and even …
The US stock market has performed strongly since the end of August, with the S&P 500 posting a total return of nearly 9%. However, we think the index will struggle to make further headway and forecast it to edge up to just 1,800 by the end of this year …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Monetary easing cycle nearing its end in much of Emerging Europe …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … ECB is likely to adopt a softer stance …
4th November 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed tapering still likely to start in March, but earlier is possible …
1st November 2013
The extent of its fall so far this year has made the South African rand appear undervalued when the current real effective exchange rate is compared both to its long-run average and to its long-run trend. However, South Africa's large current account …
31st October 2013
The Fed now looks as if it will start to scale back its asset purchases next spring, although the tone of the FOMC's late-October statement suggests that the process might even begin earlier. As the central bank gradually becomes less accommodative over …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed not the only central bank in the game …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … FOMC decision unlikely to alter expectations for tapering …
30th October 2013
The Bank of Japan is likely to maintain its current policy settings at its Board meeting tomorrow. But in contrast to the US Fed, the question is whether the Japanese central bank will eventually have to increase its asset purchases, rather than when it …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Future less bright for EM local currency government bonds …
29th October 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US dollar's reserve currency status not at serious risk …
28th October 2013
The crisis over the debt ceiling, the prospect of “QEternity”, and some recent evidence that foreign investors have been selling US assets have all revived talk that the dollar is facing a prolonged decline. However, in several important respects the …
25th October 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK economy probably expanded at ahealthy rate in Q3 …
The depressed level of euro-zone aggregate corporate earnings largely reflects the weakness of the region’s economy. While we continue to think that the recovery in GDP will be unspectacular, a cyclical rebound in the profit margin could nonetheless …
24th October 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro's strength is likely to be short-lived …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Limited upside for the US stockmarket …
23rd October 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fiscal uncertainty may not stop Fed from tapering QE3 in December …
22nd October 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … China's Q3 GDP growth probably as good as it gets …
21st October 2013
EPFR Global data reveal that ETF and mutual fund portfolio flows into emerging market (EM) equities were positive in September for the first month since February. And separate daily data from six countries in Emerging Asia show that foreigners' appetite …
18th October 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Focus shifts to China GDP …
