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This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … China likely to continue with large-scale currency intervention …
8th January 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Deflation remains a risk for the euro-zone …
7th January 2014
The fact that the valuation of the US stock market is already high compared to its long-run averages on the cyclically-adjusted price/earnings (CAPE) measure is a good reason to be wary of forecasting further large gains in equity prices. Nonetheless, the …
6th January 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Dollar likely to strengthen during 2014 …
The onset of Fed tapering has not been the game-changer for bond andequity markets that many had predicted. Indeed, in the weeks following theannouncement, equity prices continued to gain and bond yields in mostmajor markets only rose by around 10bp or …
3rd January 2014
A high-level corruption scandal has taken its toll on Turkey’s financial markets over the past month. The stock market has been the second worst performer among those of the emerging economies that we track. Turkey’s dollar-denominated and local currency …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Gold finds support again at $1,200 per ounce …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Markets likely to end 2013 on a strong note …
23rd December 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Markets shrug off announcement of Fed tapering …
20th December 2013
Although the timing of the Fed’s decision to taper its asset purchases came as surprise to the majority (although not to us), the announcement has not proved so far to be the turning point for markets that some have suggested. On the contrary, the stock …
19th December 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the FOMC surprise markets? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … All eyes on the FOMC …
18th December 2013
Investors in emerging market assets clearly remain concerned about the consequences of a tapering of the Fed’s asset purchases. EPFR Global data reveal that there were net ETF and mutual fund portfolio outflows from emerging market (EM) bonds in November …
17th December 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Weakness in Japan's stock market unlikely to last …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed taper unlikely to cause a rout in long-term US Treasuries …
16th December 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Prospects for the UK stock market appear favourable …
13th December 2013
Developed market equities have been one of the top-performing asset classes so far this year, but the UK’s FTSE 100 index has lagged well behind its peers. We think a weaker pound and a cyclical rebound in profits will see this pattern reversed over the …
12th December 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Recovery in euro-zone's industrial sector to remain elusive …
We have revised some of our key forecasts for emerging market (EM) bonds and equities. On average, we now expect larger increases in credit spreads and smaller gains in stock prices than before. Our end-2015 projection for the JP Morgan EMBI+ spread is …
11th December 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US Treasury yields unlikely to surge when the Fed tapers …
Emerging market assets have suffered since mid-October from renewed speculation that the US Fed will taper its asset purchases sooner rather than later. Both equities and bonds have sold off over the past month, particularly in Latin America. But the …
10th December 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … India’s outperformance unlikely to be sustained …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US Employment Report likely to prompt December Fed taper …
9th December 2013
Fears that the end of the Fed’s purchases will lead to a further surge in Treasury yields are almost certainly overdone. What’s more, even if long-term interest rates do continue to climb in the US, there is at least some scope for decoupling in …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US Employment Report could prompt Fed to taper later this month …
6th December 2013
Sterling has been the best performing major currency in recent months, rising from $1.50 in the summer to $1.63 now. Nonetheless, we expect it to come under pressure again before too long and ultimately to reverse its recent gains. … Will sterling’s …
5th December 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … OPEC production quota already being undermined by Iran and Iraq …
4th December 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bank of Japan in no hurry to ease again …
Sterling has been the best performing major developed market currency over the past few months, appreciating to more than 1.64 dollars, compared to an exchange rate of 1.50 during the summer. The strengthening has been driven by a rise in relative …
3rd December 2013
The Australian dollar was the second-worst performing of the G-10 currencies in November behind the Japanese yen, shedding nearly 4% of its value against the US dollar. We expect the Aussie to remain under pressure and now forecast the currency to fall to …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Strong ISM manufacturing index gives Fed further food for thought …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will US payrolls prompt the Fed to taper later this month? …
2nd December 2013
29th November 2013
Bond markets have reacted positively to election results in Argentina which effectively mean that the incumbent, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, will be unable to serve beyond her current term ending in 2015. Indeed, the prospect of a more …
27th November 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK economic recovery will probably start to broaden out …
The People’s Bank of China (PBC) recently asserted that its intervention in the currency market would “basically” end. If this proves to be the case, it would represent a significant change of heart given that the central bank appears to have accumulated …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK growth in Q3 probably strong but unbalanced …
At first glance the UK stock market still appears to be attractively valued, despite a double-digit price rise so far this year. But its valuation has been flattered by strong earnings growth in certain heavily-weighted sectors. If this growth is …
26th November 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Deal with Iran should eventually help oil prices to fall …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … A shift in Fed's policy mix could reassure bond investors …
25th November 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … China currency liberalisation unlikely to affect US Treasuries …
22nd November 2013
Labour’s share of income has plummeted in the United States during the past decade. This has provided an important prop to the stock market because its flipside has been a surge in the share of income paid to the owners of capital, which includes …
21st November 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed minutes may shed light on unemployment threshold debate …
EPFR Global data reveal that ETF and mutual fund portfolio flows into emerging market (EM) bonds were negative in October for the fifth month running. By contrast, flows into EM equities were marginally positive for the second month in a row. … Bonds …
20th November 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Underperformance of EM equities unlikely to persist …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Reform package unlikely to boost China's stock market for long …
19th November 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … No evidence of large bubbles in US stock or housing markets …
18th November 2013
There is significant cross-country variation in the price/earnings ratios of euro-zone stock markets. This variation appears to be at least partly justified by differences in the average credit ratings of the companies in those markets. … Credit …
15th November 2013
The Nikkei closed back above 15,000 today, helped by a renewed decline in the yen past 100 to the dollar. We expect Japanese equities to advance further and the currency to continue to weaken, due largely to domestic fiscal and monetary developments. …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Weak euro-zone growth to weigh on the euro …
