Filtered by Subscriptions: Bonds & Equities Use setting Bonds & Equities
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Treasuries unlikely to be undone by surging term premia …
15th May 2014
The prospect of a new government delivering economic reform in India has provided a substantial boost to the country’s stock market. Although we are also optimistic that a new government will make more progress than the current one, it will probably …
14th May 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the S&P 500 go from strength to strength? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will India's stock market continue to outperform? …
13th May 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What next for EM dollar-denominated government bonds? …
12th May 2014
The “stripped” spread of the JP Morgan EMBI+ Index has dropped below 300 basis points for the first time in about a year. However, we forecast the spread to rebound as less accommodative US monetary policy ultimately diminishes investors’ appetite for …
9th May 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … ECB signals further easing …
The cost of corporate equity is much lower than the cost of corporate debt in the US. This is very different to the situation that prevailed during the dot com bubble and is a reason to think that the stock market will not be especially rattled by the …
8th May 2014
One reason to be relatively optimistic about emerging market equities is their low valuation relative to their developed market counterparts. For example, price/12m forward earnings ratios are around their five-year averages in emerging markets, on …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Sterling’s strengthening against the euro has further to run …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US Treasury yields more likely to drift higher than surge …
7th May 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed to continue gradual taper despite strong payroll gains …
5th May 2014
In April, major stock indices edged higher in the US and Europe but fell further in Japan. We think equities in the US are likely to struggle as the Fed becomes less accommodative, and our end-2015 forecast for the S&P 500 remains 1,900. We do not believe …
2nd May 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Markets to continue taking shift in Fed policy in their stride …
We forecast a fairly small rise in the 10-year US government bond yield by end-2015 despite a shift in Fed policy. We also think the BoE will raise rates later and more slowly than the US central bank, while both the ECB and the BoJ are likely to ease …
1st May 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Strong UK growth probably insufficient to prop up sterling …
30th April 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What next in the Ukraine crisis? …
29th April 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Less accommodative Fed policy to restrain the US stock market …
25th April 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Commodity prices could be buffeted by El Niño …
Net selling by global ETFs and mutual funds dedicated to investing in equities in China was larger in March than in any other month on record according to EPFR Global. This presumably reflected growing concerns about the health of the world’s second …
24th April 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the renewed enthusiasm for EM Asia equities continue? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will QE be a game-changer for the euro-zone? …
23rd April 2014
The ECB looks increasingly willing to implement some form of explicit quantitative easing (QE) soon. However, the market impacts may be smaller and more varied than widely hoped. … ECB’s QE unlikely to be the panacea that markets …
22nd April 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Russia at real risk of recession …
18th April 2014
One reason for the sell-off in the US stock market in the first half of this month appears to have been concern that valuations in the technology sector are stretched. But there is little evidence to corroborate this fear, while claims that the market as …
17th April 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What to make of China’s GDP data …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … ECB will probably do too little, too late …
16th April 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Ukraine crisis flares up again …
15th April 2014
Much of the recent pull-back in the US stock market appears to have reflected a concern that valuations in the technology sector are frothy. But we are a long way from the situation that prevailed at the peak of the dot com bubble. In March 2000 – the …
14th April 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … No valuation bubble in the US tech sector …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Gilts likely to decouple from US Treasuries …
11th April 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Where are global real rates and yields heading? …
10th April 2014
One development that is likely to cap future rises in long-term government bond yields in some of the major advanced economies is the persistence of exceptionally loose monetary policy. But this is more likely to be the case in the euro-zone and Japan …
9th April 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japanese equities likely to outperform again …
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has returned nearly 3% in local currency terms since this time last month. At least three factors may explain why emerging market equities have been on the mend. First, investors’ fears of a hard landing in China may have …
8th April 2014
There are good reasons to be cautious on the near-term prospects for the Nikkei, but we expect equities in Japan to outperform those in other major developed markets over the rest of the year. … Better second half in store for the …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is a bubble emerging in US corporate bonds? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed still on course for gradual taper …
7th April 2014
At around 170bp, the spread over Treasuries of US corporate bonds with a 7-10 year maturity and BBB rating is now less than its average of the last quarter of a century and the smallest since before the financial crisis. It is probably premature to talk …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Revisiting US Treasury and German Bund decoupling Capital …
4th April 2014
The credit spreads of US corporate bonds fell further in March. At around 1.7%, the spread over Treasuries of those with a 7-10 year maturity and BBB rating is now below its average of the last quarter of a century and the smallest since before the …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Planned Greek debt issuance is not a game changer …
3rd April 2014
The Australian dollar has been one of this year’s best performing major currencies. But given the outlook for monetary policy and the prices of some of Australia’s major exports, we think that it will fall against the US dollar this year and next. … Is …
2nd April 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the Australian dollar set to fall? …
The “stripped spread” over US Treasuries of the JP Morgan EMBI Global Latin America Index fell by 30bp in March, bringing its decline since the start of February to almost a full percentage point. Although the spread remains larger than those for the …
1st April 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Too soon to sound the "all clear" on Ukraine …
The spread between the yields of 10-year US and German government bonds is close to the largest it has been since the start of EMU. But we think the spread will continue to grow. With this in mind, we have lowered our end-2014 and end-2015 forecasts for …
31st March 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Wedge between US & German bond yields likely to grow …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will foreigners' enthusiasm for Spanish government debt wane? …
28th March 2014
At first sight, many of our views now look close to the consensus. However, this is typically because other analysts have swung round to our long-held positions, which have mostly been proved right, rather than because we have shifted. What’s more, even …
27th March 2014
