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If the Scottish people voted for independence next month, it would create a lot of uncertainty andprobably weaken investors’ appetite for Gilts, UK equities and sterling. Admittedly, the directeconomic and market consequences would probably be quite …
14th August 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How would the markets react if Scotland voted to go it alone? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How low can Bund yields go? …
13th August 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will a weaker euro ever provide a boost to euro-zone equities? …
12th August 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fading inflation concerns help to lower Gilt yields …
11th August 2014
Although developed market equities have performed poorly over the pastmonth, in general we do not expect them to continue to struggle. Europeanequities were the worst performers, dragged down by the escalation of thesituation in Ukraine and some …
8th August 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fundamentals still encouraging for equities outside the US …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Sterling’s decline has further to run …
7th August 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Lower-rated US corporate bonds at risk from higher volatility …
6th August 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Emerging market credit spreads likely to creep up gradually …
5th August 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Developed market equities to do well despite rise in volatility …
4th August 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … A repeat bond market "conundrum" seems unlikely …
1st August 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … ECB still needs to do more to weaken the euro …
31st July 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Russian markets likely to struggle as EU prepares further sanctions …
30th July 2014
The yields of dollar-denominated emerging market government bonds have been broadly flat over the past month after having declined by over one percentage point between the end of January and the end of June. There has been a small increase in credit …
29th July 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Data to highlight contrasting fortunes of the US and euro-zone …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Markets continue to shrug off the gradual shift in Fed policy …
28th July 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Divergence at heart of the euro-zone to undermine the euro …
25th July 2014
Although purchasing managers surveys for July, released earlier today, suggest that the economicrecovery in the euro-zone as a whole is regaining momentum, they also still show a large gap betweenthe performances of Germany and France. This could spell …
24th July 2014
The crisis in Ukraine is continuing to have very little effect on the financial markets in most other emerging countries, with the notable exception of Russia. In the past month or so, the MSCI Eastern Europe Index (in which Russia’s weighting exceeds …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will most EM equities remain immune to events in Ukraine? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Winners and losers from Fed tightening …
23rd July 2014
The received wisdom is that Fed tightening is bad news for many assets. But in the last three cycles, this was not always the case. Next time around, our view is that the US stock market will shrug off more restrictive monetary policy, while equities …
22nd July 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Ten-year German Bund yield unlikely to keep on falling …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Geopolitical risks set to weigh further …
21st July 2014
The relatively muted reaction in the financial markets so far to the latest tragic turn in the crisis inUkraine – as well as the escalation of the conflict in Gaza and the gains by ISIS in Iraq – might suggestthat investor sentiment is largely immune to …
18th July 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will a shift in US monetary policy boost the dollar? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How will emerging market assets cope with Fed tightening? …
17th July 2014
The rally in the US government bond market this year has coincided with a pick-up in China’s netpurchases of long-term Treasury securities, which some have attributed to intervention to weaken therenminbi. But coincidence does not prove causation and …
Emerging market (EM) assets sold off sharply last year after the former Chairman of the US central bank hinted that unconventional policy stimulus was on borrowed time. But another rout is by no means a foregone conclusion once interest rates begin to …
The persistently low level of Japanese government bond (JGB) yields is not necessarily a sign that“Abenomics” is failing. Indeed, a premature surge in borrowing costs could put the whole project atrisk, given the mountain of public debt. Instead, low …
16th July 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Unfair to judge Bank of Japan by breakeven rates alone …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US Treasuries look set to underperform Gilts and Bunds …
15th July 2014
Continuing the pattern seen this year, the decline in the yield of 10-year Treasuries over the past month appears to have resulted from a fall in the term premium according to one set of unofficial Federal Reserve data. By contrast, the portion of the …
14th July 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Emerging market dollar bonds do not appear to be in a bubble …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Europe's financial woes far from over …
11th July 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What’s really “priced in” for US interest rates? …
10th July 2014
Ignoring term premiums, the yield of a “risk-free” government bond is a reflection of the short-term rates that are expected until it matures. So if the Fed raises the federal funds rate, there ought to be no effect on Treasury yields provided the change …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Slide in the Swedish krona against the euro unlikely to last …
9th July 2014
Emerging market dollar-denominated corporate bonds outperformed similarly-rated US corporate bonds in the second quarter of this year. We expect this outperformance to continue. Admittedly, bonds issued by emerging market companies are arguably more …
8th July 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US Stock Market may not be phased by Fed tightening …
The US stock market has tended to fare quite well during previous Fed tightening cycles. Although we think its performance in the next cycle will be below average, we still expect it to creep higher. … How will the US stock market handle Fed …
7th July 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Strong US labour data not all good news for the markets …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rise in Treasury yields has probably only just begun …
4th July 2014
Japanese equities outperformed their peers in June and have continued to do well so far in July. We believe there is still plenty of scope for further gains in the Nikkei 225 even if, as we expect, the rally in the US S&P 500 starts to falter due to …
Additional easing by the ECB in June has failed to generate further downward pressure on the euro. Indeed, the euro has strengthened since the Governing Council met last month. However, while the ECB decided to keep policy on hold at its latest meeting on …
3rd July 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will bolder Fed tightening rattle the markets? …
We now think that the US FOMC will tighten monetary policy sooner, and by more, than we had previously envisaged. Our revised view is that the federal funds rate will end 2016 at 3.0%, rather than 2.5%. (See our US Economics Update , “Fed to raise rates …
2nd July 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rally in Italy’s government bonds has probably come to an end …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Outperformance of emerging market equities likely to continue …
1st July 2014
