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This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro continues to plunge …
30th September 2014
Since the end of August, emerging market currencies have generally depreciated against the US dollar. The Brazilian real has been the worst performer among those that we track. Although the real effective exchange rate is now almost 15% below its ten-year …
29th September 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will there be a wider fall-out from events in Hong Kong? …
Rather than being a sign that global growth is faltering, the recent decline in international oil prices mainly reflects improving supply conditions. As such, it should provide a modest boost to global demand. It will also help to keep headline inflation …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … EM equity sell-off unlikely to turn into a rout …
26th September 2014
Although the US dollar has already strengthened significantly against the other major currencies during the third quarter, we expect it to appreciate further as the monetary policy of the Fed diverges from that of central banks elsewhere. … Dollar likely …
25th September 2014
Although the US dollar has already strengthened significantly against the other major currencies during the third quarter, we expect it to appreciate further as the monetary policy of the Fed diverges from that of central banks elsewhere. … Are Italian …
24th September 2014
The recent slide in the Bloomberg index of spot commodity prices to its lowest level since 2010 has caught the attention of many commentators. But the underlying picture is far more nuanced than the headlines might suggest and it is actually encouraging, …
23rd September 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Are share buy-backs really still boosting the US stock market? …
22nd September 2014
The US non-financial corporate sector is no longer generating enough savings at home to finance its capital spending. The US government is therefore now reliant on funding from other sources. Should investors in the Treasury market be worried? … US …
19th September 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … All eyes on Scotland …
18th September 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Och Aye – or No thanks? …
17th September 2014
The yield of 10-year Gilts has fallen clearly below that of 10-year Treasuries for the first time since the spring. Whilst it would be premature to talk of a significant decoupling, we suspect that UK government bonds will continue to outperform their US …
16th September 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the Fed amend its "considerable time" pledge? …
This Thursday, the Federal Reserve will publish its latest Financial Accounts of the United States for Q2. These are likely to show that the market value of equities issued by US non-financial companies at the end of June was considerably more than those …
15th September 2014
The S&P 500 has been struggling to break decisively above 2,000 in recent weeks. This is hardly surprising given the outlook for Fed policy. However, we doubt monetary tightening will drive US equity prices significantly lower. And those expecting a major …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Consensus still too sanguine on timing of first US rate hike …
12th September 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Aussie dollar likely to come under further pressure …
11th September 2014
Most emerging market (EM) countries have become more competitive over the past year. This bodes well for equity returns in these countries in the long run. However, other factors are as likely to have an influence on returns in the short run. Overall, we …
Emerging market equities are on track to outperform both developed and frontier market equities in Q3 for the first quarter in seven. We would not be surprised if emerging market equities continued to fare well over the next few years. … Emerging market …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What next for EM local currency government bonds? …
10th September 2014
The renewed slide in the yen (to 106) against the dollar has helped to revive investors’ interest in the Nikkei, which closed today at its highest level since January. We remain comfortable with our longstanding Nikkei forecasts of 17,000 and 18,500 for …
9th September 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Further evidence that weak US payrolls data were just a blip …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Would Scottish independence drive sterling down even further? …
8th September 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US economy going strong despite disappointing Employment Report …
5th September 2014
Despite edging up a little over the summer, the yield of US 7-10 year B-rated corporate bonds remains close to its lowest level in at least a quarter of a century. We think that this is a bubble and that there is a significant risk of it bursting soon, …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro likely to fall even further …
4th September 2014
The US dollar is close to the strongest it has been against the other major currencies in over a year. But we doubt its rally is over given the relative prospects for monetary policy in the US and elsewhere. … US dollar seems likely to strengthen …
3rd September 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … ECB to loosen policy further – if not this week, then very soon …
The dollar is now the strongest it has been against a basket of seven other major currencies in more than a year. We doubt the rally is over given the relative prospects for monetary policy in the US and elsewhere. Admittedly, the dollar weakened against …
2nd September 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Do falling bond yields reflect changing interest rate expectations? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Dollar’s rally has further to run …
1st September 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … All eyes on some of the world’s major central banks …
29th August 2014
The strong performance of emerging market equities over the past month has driven the price/12m forward earnings ratio further above its five-year average. In fact, on this measure, equity valuations in Latin America now look almost as stretched as those …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Time to batten down the hatches again? …
28th August 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The final frontier? …
27th August 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The US stock market is unlikely to go from strength to strength …
26th August 2014
Although the S&P 500 has broken above 2,000 this week for the first time, we doubt that the stock market will go from strength to strength. For now, we are sticking with our forecast that the index will end next year roughly where it is now. … What next …
The weakness of the euro-zone economy and the persistent threat of deflation should keep German government bond (Bund) yields relatively low. However, any scaling back of fiscal austerity and the adoption of quantitative easing (QE) by the ECB are now …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Yellen fails to rock the boat …
22nd August 2014
Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and the prospect of a shift in Fed policy, emerging market equities are on track to outperform developed market equities for the second quarter in a row. Their healthy performance is reflected in renewed demand from …
21st August 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone falls further behind US (and UK) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Oil prices have further to fall …
20th August 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Which emerging equity markets are likely to fare better than others? …
If tomorrow’s minutes of the UK Monetary Policy Committee’s latest meeting reveal that some members voted to raise interest rates earlier this month, short-term Gilt yields may rise and sterling strengthen. But over the next few years, we think that Gilt …
19th August 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Tightening US labour market to weigh on equity prices …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German equities much more attractively valued than bonds …
18th August 2014
The sharp decline in the yields of local currency government bonds in developed countries has boosted the relative appeal of those in emerging countries. Admittedly, we expect yields in most developed countries to drift higher in the next few years. But …
15th August 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What to make of the growing gap between DM & EM bond yields …
When comparing sterling’s real effective exchange rate to its ten-year average,the currency appears to be around 12% overvalued – which is the largest degreeof misalignment among the developed market currencies that we track. What’s more, in its latest …
14th August 2014
