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This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will a weaker yen continue to propel the Nikkei? …
16th December 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Plenty of reasons to expect US Treasury yields to keep on rising …
15th December 2016
We are revising up our forecasts for the 10-year Treasury yield for three key reasons. The first relates to the outlook for interest rates. The second relates to compensation for uncertainty. And the third reflects a view about the balance between the …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the Fed rock EM currencies? …
14th December 2016
Financial markets in the emerging world have generally stabilised since the initial shock of Donald Trump’s election victory last month. But with Trump yet to take office, investors are likely to remain on edge for some time. … EM markets regain their …
13th December 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Are we bearish enough on US Treasuries? …
The Trumponomics of the future may resemble the Reaganomics of the past, by being characterised by looser fiscal and tighter monetary policies. With this in mind, how is the performance of the US stock market in the next couple of years likely to compare …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the US stock market heading for a re-run of the early 1980s? …
12th December 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed policy still a risk for EMs …
9th December 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Policy divergence likely to drive the euro down further …
8th December 2016
Although we expect the US dollar to continue to strengthen, we doubt that it will climb as high as it did in the early 1980s. Admittedly, the Trumponomics of the future may resemble the Reaganomics of the past. But any shift in the policy mix is unlikely …
7th December 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How much will the dollar benefit from a shift in the policy mix? …
Since Donald Trump won the race to the White House, investors have had to adjust to the prospect of looser fiscal and tighter monetary policy. Not surprisingly, the prospect has caused the dollar to strengthen, but Treasuries to come under fire. Looking …
6th December 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will EM equities remain immune to Italian politics? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Italian bond market unlikely to enjoy much respite …
5th December 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US Employment Report doesn’t change the outlook for the Fed …
2nd December 2016
The backstops that have been put in place to hold the euro-zone together could limit extra upward pressure on Italian – and other euro-periphery – government bond yields if voters in Italy reject constitutional reforms in Sunday’s referendum and this …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Further depreciation of the renminbi unlikely to rock EM markets …
1st December 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Are equities in commodity-exporting EMs ripe for a rally? …
30th November 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will OPEC fall at the final hurdle? …
29th November 2016
Yields of emerging market (EM) dollar-denominated bonds have risen since the US elections, but are still generally lower than the forward earnings yields of equities. This is one reason why we believe relatively low valuations will ensure that equities …
28th November 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What next for Italian government bonds? …
Frontier financial markets came under pressure in the wake of Donald Trump’s US election victory, with currencies weakening against the dollar and bond yields rising. The losses have been relatively modest and in some cases have already started to …
The Japanese yen remains on course for our long-held forecast of 120 against the dollar next year, which is based largely on our view that the Fed will raise US interest rates more aggressively than most anticipate. This in turn should boost Japanese …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Yen on course for 120 against the dollar …
25th November 2016
Emerging market currencies have been one of the major casualties of the global sell-off since the November 8th US elections. Some, including the Turkish lira and South African rand, are likely to depreciate further next year. But we think other currencies …
24th November 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How vulnerable is the US stock market to the strong dollar? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Further rise in US bond yields unlikely to blow equities off course …
23rd November 2016
While Donald Trump’s plan to tax retained corporate income held offshore at 10% could encourage US multinationals to repatriate funds, we doubt that it would provide a big boost to the S&P 500. … Would Trump’s repatriation tax boost the US stock …
More emerging market (EM) central banks may step in to support their currencies by selling reserve assets if risk appetite takes another turn for the worse. But unless China is forced into aggressive action to protect the renminbi, there is unlikely to be …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Trump’s fiscal stimulus won’t be a game-changer for US equities …
22nd November 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Boost from infrastructure spending may prove a damp squib …
21st November 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will markets continue to take Trump in their stride? …
18th November 2016
Dollar-denominated government bonds have suffered disproportionately during the emerging market sell-off since Donald Trump won the US presidential election. We expect dollar-denominated bonds to continue to underperform equities and currencies. … Will EM …
We think that the resilience of US corporate bonds since Donald Trump won the race to the White House is a sign of things to come, even as the Fed tightens monetary policy significantly. … What next for US corporate …
17th November 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Yellen indicates Fed could raise rates “relatively soon” …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Too soon to give up on gold …
16th November 2016
The rout in the US bond market since the elections there is a logical response to the prospect of a substantial fiscal expansion. Indeed, the results have prompted us to revise up our already-bearish forecasts for Treasury yields. Although we have also …
15th November 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … No need to panic over bond sell-off …
The slump in emerging markets (EMs) since Donald Trump pulled off the shock of the century has so far been relatively mild, and we are not making wholesale changes to our forecasts. Trump’s victory increases the likelihood of the sell-off in …
In the wake of Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election, we are nudging up our forecasts for government bond yields in Europe. But we still don’t expect that they will rise as fast as in the US. … Will European bonds fare better than US …
14th November 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will European bond yields follow US Treasuries higher? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … We expect the sell-off in the US Treasury market to continue …
11th November 2016
We are revising our forecasts for US Treasuries in response to the possibility of a large fiscal stimulus under a Trump administration. We are, however, retaining our forecasts for the S&P 500. … New – even more bearish – forecasts for …
Financial markets in Mexico have slumped since Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election was confirmed on Wednesday, but losses in many other emerging markets (EMs) have so far not been particularly alarming. Nonetheless, with the outlook for …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the US stock market banking too much on Trump? …
10th November 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Why were markets so quick to shrug off Trump’s victory? Capital …
9th November 2016
The initial reaction in the markets to Donald Trump’s victory has not been as large as we expected and many of the moves have now been largely unwound. Nonetheless, the rebounds that we have seen are broadly consistent with our medium-term forecasts. … …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What would a Trump victory mean for the markets? …
8th November 2016
A victory for Hillary Clinton in today’s presidential election is now heavily discounted. As a result, it would trigger far less of a response in the markets than a surprise win for Donald Trump. In this Update, we provide some specific forecasts in the …
