Filtered by Subscriptions: Bonds & Equities Use setting Bonds & Equities
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Policy outlook should limit sterling’s slide …
5th October 2017
Corporate America has been masquerading as a major “foreign” investor in US government bonds in recent years. This Focus considers whether its healthy appetite will continue and anchor Treasury yields. … Will Corporate America shore up the Treasury …
4th October 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Are investors right to be very bearish on Treasuries this time? …
Although the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index has rallied by more than 20% this year, this gain has primarily been driven by expectations of faster earnings growth. As a result, its valuation is no higher than it was at the end of 2016, and remains quite …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Healthy economic growth is buoying global equities …
3rd October 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Are markets right to shrug off political events in Catalonia? …
2nd October 2017
We do not think that the recent dip in emerging market (EM) currencies and equities signals the start of a larger downturn in their fortunes. … Pull-back in EM equities and currencies unlikely to …
29th September 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Monetary policy outlook shouldn’t weigh too heavily on the euro …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Latest pull-back in EM equities should prove temporary …
28th September 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Trump’s tax plan could be bad news for Treasuries …
27th September 2017
The jump in oil prices, from $51pb at the start of September to around $59pb at the time of writing, should provide a fillip to the large frontier oil economies, such as Saudi Arabia, Nigeria and Kazakhstan. If sustained, we estimate that this would …
26th September 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Recent falls in EM currencies unlikely to be the start of a trend …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Markets weather German election, but political risk lingers …
25th September 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Economic strength should continue to support the euro …
22nd September 2017
Risky asset markets took the Fed’s unexpectedly-hawkish tone on Wednesday in their stride. We think that they will remain resilient over the next year and a half or so, even though we forecast that the Fed will hike rates once a quarter between now and …
21st September 2017
US FOMC participants’ median estimate of the level of the federal funds rate in the “longer run” has fallen by 25bp, to a new low of 2.75%. This compares to a median estimate of 4.25% in early 2012. Our view is that such a decline in the longer-run level …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Lower longer-run interest rates underpin higher asset valuations …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How will Treasury yields react to the Fed? …
20th September 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Another reason to worry about risky asset valuations? …
19th September 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … As good as it gets for US equities? …
18th September 2017
We have revised some of our key market forecasts for currencies, bonds and equities, partly because we no longer expect the FOMC to raise its target range for the federal funds rate again this year. … Some new market …
15th September 2017
Emerging market (EM) corporate bond spreads are around their lowest since the onset of the global financial crisis. We think that they will remain low for the next year and a half or so – but expect them to rise sharply further ahead. … How vulnerable are …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How much further will Gilt yields rise? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How vulnerable is the FTSE 100 to tighter UK monetary policy? …
14th September 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What next for currencies, bonds and equities? …
13th September 2017
We have revised some of our key market forecasts for currencies, bonds and equities, partly because we no longer expect the FOMC to raise its target range for the federal funds rate again this year. … Some revisions to our key market …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What’s behind the surge in the MSCI China Index? …
12th September 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What next for the ailing US dollar? …
11th September 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How much Fed tightening is really priced into markets? …
8th September 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Draghi gives the euro another boost …
7th September 2017
Emerging market (EM) credit spreads ticked down again over the past month and generally appear low by the standards of the past. We think that they will pick up only a little this year and next, but expect them to rise sharply further ahead. … How long …
6th September 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will Draghi talk the euro down? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the end of summer breathe new life into the markets? …
5th September 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … North Korea crisis to have limited impact on safe havens …
4th September 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Treasury yields likely to rise despite underwhelming payrolls …
1st September 2017
In our view, EM assets are likely to weather the gradual tightening of monetary policy in advanced economies this year and next. But the effects of this tightening may start to bite further ahead. … How vulnerable are EM assets to tighter DM monetary …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The renminbi’s rally has much further to run …
31st August 2017
In a quiet month for economic news across frontier markets, politics has provided a regular stream of headlines. Investors were buoyed by results from Argentina’s primary elections which showed that support for President Macri’s coalition had held up …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japanese yen still likely to weaken …
30th August 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … ECB may try to temper euro’s rise before long …
29th August 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Yellen soothes markets, but could ruffle Trump …
25th August 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … We don’t think that the rally in US Treasuries will last …
24th August 2017
Although policymakers are unlikely to give very much away, Friday’s Jackson Hole speeches will still be scrutinised for any hints about the timing of ECB “tapering” and Fed balance sheet “normalisation”. Worries about the scaling back of quantitative …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What should we read into the poor performance of US small-caps? …
23rd August 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Should EM investors fear the scaling back of QE? …
22nd August 2017
We think that the prospects for German large-cap equities during the remainder of 2017 are quite bright, despite their pull-back over the past two months. Admittedly, we are revising down our end-year forecast for the DAX 30, from 13,500 to 12,750. But …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Germany’s stock market unlikely to keep on falling …
21st August 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Respite for S&P 500 unlikely to be a lull in a storm …
18th August 2017
Although China’s holdings of US Treasuries increased by more in June than in any other month in the past six years, we doubt that renewed Chinese buying of Treasuries will keep their yields low in the same way that it arguably did in the mid-2000s. We …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Renewed Chinese buying unlikely to keep Treasury yields down …
17th August 2017
