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This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How long until the next big correction in the US stock market? …
23rd November 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What is the bond market telling us about the stock market? …
22nd November 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is there a bubble in Chinese equities? …
21st November 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Prospects for Treasuries still look quite bleak …
20th November 2017
We doubt that the fall in the dollar seen in the past few weeks will continue, especially as we think that the Fed will tighten by more than most anticipate next year. … Recent setback for the dollar should prove …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … We expect the rally in the dollar to resume before long …
17th November 2017
It is tempting to attribute the 20% surge in the S&P 500 since the US elections last November to the prospect of tax reform. But while this may have played a role, it does not appear to have been the main factor. So if, as seems possible, Congress fails …
16th November 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Tax reform not the be-all and end-all for the S&P 500 …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How worried should we be about “overvalued” equities? …
15th November 2017
We think that Central and Eastern European (CEE) currencies and the euro will weaken against the dollar next year. But we judge that CEE currencies will fall by less, given the prospects for monetary policy. … Will CEE currencies continue to track the …
14th November 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will healthy economic growth continue to buoy the euro? …
Risky assets have come under some pressure for the first time since the summer, when they were rattled by rising tensions between the US and North Korea. Nonetheless, we still don’t think that a major sell-off is likely until 2019, given the economic …
13th November 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the recent sell-off in the markets a sign of things to come? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the rise in US high-yield credit spreads a worrying sign? …
10th November 2017
The recent increase in the price of oil has added further fuel to the rally in emerging market (EM) equities. Although we think that some of this support will unwind as oil prices slip back, we still expect the MSCI EM Index to climb further between now …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How are higher oil prices affecting US bonds and equities? …
9th November 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the US stock market fall out of love with Trump? …
8th November 2017
The MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index of equities set another record high on Tuesday, and is some way above its pre-global financial crisis peak. Although the MSCI Brazil Index – the fifth-largest constituent of the overall index – has fallen back since …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rally in EM equities probably has further to run …
7th November 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will Bunds benefit most from the ECB’s reinvestment policy? …
6th November 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Risky assets likely to withstand tighter-than-expected Fed policy …
3rd November 2017
Although the valuations of most risky assets have risen further above their long-run averages during the past quarter, we still don’t expect them to come crashing down any time soon. As we argued in the previous edition of The Capital Markets Analyst, we …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Sterling likely to recover, as BoE proves not so dovish after all …
2nd November 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Markets bet on dovish BoE rate hike …
1st November 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will rate expectations continue to boost the US dollar? …
31st October 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Price of Brent unlikely to remain above $60 for long …
30th October 2017
Emerging market (EM) assets have prospered this year despite the Fed continuing to raise rates. We think that they will also cope well as unconventional policy from several major central banks becomes less accommodative in the coming quarters. … EM assets …
27th October 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Strong US GDP growth bolsters case for Fed tightening …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … ECB’s reduction in QE to have limited market impact …
26th October 2017
The raft of GDP data released over the past month or so showed that the recovery in frontier markets strengthened in Q2. According to our GDP-weighted measure of growth, frontier economies expanded by 2.4% y/y in Q2, up from 1.9% y/y in the previous …
25th October 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Can the ECB pull off a dovish taper? …
We expect the US Treasury yield curve to continue to flatten, as the Fed raises rates further. But we don’t think that the curve will begin to invert – and flag up the risk of a recession – until 2019. … Will the US yield curve continue to …
24th October 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … EM assets likely to weather the withdrawal of QE …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Are investors right to be taking events in Catalonia in their stride? …
23rd October 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the party in the financial markets remain in full swing? …
20th October 2017
After a big rally earlier in the year, emerging market (EM) currencies have weakened against the dollar recently as US rate expectations have picked up. We doubt that much larger falls are around the corner, even though we think that the Fed will hike by …
19th October 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the global upswing in corporate earnings last? …
If the Republican’s proposed tax reforms are enacted, a large proportion of overseas income held by US multinational enterprises (MNEs) could be returned to the US. We anticipate that a sizeable share of this repatriated income would be used for share …
18th October 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Monetary policy outlook suggests that the rally in Gilts won’t last …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Should investors fear a Taylor-led Fed? …
17th October 2017
This year’s rally in global equities has been driven primarily by an increase in investors’ expectations for corporate earnings. In general, we expect earnings to continue to support equities in 2018. … Will earnings growth continue to buoy global …
16th October 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is a flatter Treasury curve a sign of trouble ahead? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Are Treasury investors complacent about the inflation outlook? …
13th October 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will Japan’s stock market remain on a tear? …
12th October 2017
Healthy economic growth is providing ongoing support to equities, which have performed well over the past month. Indeed, the vast majority of the rise in the MSCI World Index of developed market equities so far in 2017 has been due to an increase in …
Although the yields of US Treasuries have rebounded recently, those of emerging market (EM) local currency sovereign bonds have typically increased by less. We suspect that this will continue as Treasury yields climb further in the coming quarters. … EM …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will EM sovereign bonds continue to outperform Treasuries? …
11th October 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Pullback in EM currencies probably not a sign of things to come …
10th October 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is a boost from tax reform already discounted in the S&P 500? …
9th October 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the worst still to come for Treasuries? …
6th October 2017
