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This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Dollar in retreat as fears of global trade war abate …
6th March 2018
The reaction in currency markets to President Trump’s proposed tariffs on steel and aluminium suggests that investors are far more concerned that the duties represent the opening salvo of a trade war – with a potentially severe economic fallout – than …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Would the US dollar be a casualty in a trade war? …
5th March 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Italian bond spreads could rise after the election …
2nd March 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Have we seen the last of IT-driven gains in EM equities? …
1st March 2018
Brazil’s stock market has been the best-performing of any major economy this year, soaring by well over 10% despite the turmoil in global equities a few weeks ago. But we suspect that it will come back down to earth again before long as the drivers of the …
The correction in global equities earlier this month coincided with a further rise in US Treasury yields, as higher inflation and the prospect of extra fiscal stimulus led investors to conclude that the Fed will step harder on the brakes. Our forecast …
28th February 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Surge in Brazil’s stock market looks unsustainable …
International bond markets have been inundated with debt issuance from frontier markets over the past couple of years and there’s no sign yet that appetite is waning. Since the start of this year alone Nigeria, Kenya and Argentina have all issued dollar …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Looser fiscal policy means Treasury yields have further to rise …
27th February 2018
The deal done in Congress at the beginning of this month will potentially result in even larger federal budget deficits than those seen during Ronald Reagan’s time as president. This is a key reason why we have decided to revise up our end-2019 forecast …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rebound in EM currencies not likely to be sustained …
26th February 2018
The dollar’s weakness in the face of tighter Fed policy is reminiscent of the mid-2000s. At the time, interest rates and bond yields also moved in favour of the US, but its currency was dragged down by a growing “twin” deficit. Nonetheless, the dollar …
23rd February 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Treasuries are vulnerable to more than just Fed policy …
The recent sell-off in emerging market (EM) equities after the US stock market slumped reiterated how exposed they are to movements in developed market equities. Although EM equities have since recovered a bit, we think that further falls in the S&P 500 …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The outlook for EM local currency bonds remains mixed …
22nd February 2018
After a very strong run, EM bonds, equities and currencies have all faltered recently. Although they have since bounced back a bit, we think that their best days are now over. … Are the best days over for EM financial …
The US initially led the recovery in stock markets around the world from their falls of a few weeks ago. But the S&P 500 faltered a bit earlier this week, and we doubt that it will drive global equities higher again in the coming quarters. … Will the …
21st February 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Relief rally in US equities will probably falter again soon …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How vulnerable is the dollar to a growing US twin deficit? …
20th February 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japan’s stock market unable to shrug off a strong yen …
19th February 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Are EM local currency bond yields about to rise? …
16th February 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Would more market turmoil lift the dollar against other majors? …
15th February 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Any respite for the US stock market likely to be short-lived …
14th February 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … More rate rises than investors expect to drive Gilt yields higher …
13th February 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Valuations of US equities still look high after correction …
12th February 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will even looser fiscal policy really be good for US equities? …
9th February 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Revising our view of the dollar …
8th February 2018
We are abandoning our expectation that the dollar will have a last hurrah this year. We had previously expected it to stage a modest rebound against most other developed market currencies, as the contrast in the monetary policies of the Fed and other …
EM credit spreads remain very tight by historical standards, despite picking up a bit in the wake of the chaos in global equity markets in the past few days. However, their current low levels do not appear justified by changes in EMs’ fundamentals, and we …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the worst now over? …
7th February 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … From complacency to gloom? …
6th February 2018
The severity of any further sell-off in global financial markets may be limited by the general health of the global economy and the scope for policymakers to respond if necessary. Nonetheless, the episode supports our repeated warnings that markets were …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is a Powell “put” coming? …
5th February 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the US yield curve continue to steepen? …
2nd February 2018
The stripped spread of the JP Morgan EMBI Global (which is comprised of sovereign dollar-denominated bonds) has continued to fall this year, and has rarely been lower in the post-financial crisis era. However, we are not convinced that the latest decline …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Have US Treasuries now factored in enough Fed tightening? …
1st February 2018
This month’s Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global Fund Manager Survey revealed that respondents were the most overweight equities relative to government bonds since August 2014. This is not surprising. After all, the global economy is in fine fettle and …
31st January 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the surge in the renminbi continue? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Are overvalued equities starting to lose their appeal? …
30th January 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Flying start to the year for EM equities unlikely to last …
29th January 2018
The recent rally in oil prices has brightened the outlook for the majority of frontier oil exporters. In the Gulf, for example, higher oil prices and strong balance sheets have enabled the authorities to ease back on the harsh fiscal austerity of the past …
26th January 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the Fed spoil the party? …
The party in the markets has remained in full swing while the Fed has emptied its punchbowl slowly. This year, though, the US central bank is likely to drain it more quickly. And in some other major economies, monetary policy is also likely to be …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the only way up for the euro? …
25th January 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Could irrational exuberance propel the S&P 500 towards 5,000? …
24th January 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What effect is Trump’s repatriation tax having on the markets? …
23rd January 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Trying, in vain, to rationalise the decline in the dollar …
22nd January 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Are Treasuries partly suffering from waning foreign demand? …
19th January 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is China’s economy a threat to global stock markets? …
18th January 2018
