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Judging by what has happened in recent months, President Trump’s attitude to global trade could remain a more important driver of the US dollar than the prospects for monetary policy in the US and elsewhere. With this in mind, we might need to revise our …
19th September 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Faltering US dollar could be a sign of things to come …
18th September 2018
The fact that emerging market (EM) equities have dropped a long way recently does not mean that they cannot fall much further, or that they are likely to perform much better than their US peers in the future. … Will EM equities fall much …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … More pain to come for EM Asian equities …
17th September 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … 10-year Treasury yield likely to rise decisively above 3% soon …
14th September 2018
Ten years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, there are concerns that the financial markets will bring the global economy to its knees again. We do not think, however, that they will be a major cause of the next recession, despite claims that the …
Although they have recovered a touch in the past couple of days, emerging market (EM) currencies have generally slumped against the dollar since mid-April. These falls shed light on which are most vulnerable in the next two years given the outlook for US …
13th September 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Domestic monetary policy taking a back seat for euro and sterling …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Risks to EM equities and currencies look quite different …
12th September 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … No respite around the corner for EM equities …
11th September 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rally in Italian government bonds unlikely to persist for long …
10th September 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Friday’s sell-off in Treasuries is probably a sign of things to come …
7th September 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … EM currencies likely to weaken further, but risks unevenly spread …
6th September 2018
Worries about protectionism have clearly weighed on equity markets in much of the world recently, and this will probably remain the case. What’s more, we suspect that protectionism concerns will start to take a toll on the US stock market, which has …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Outlook for equities is poor across the emerging world …
5th September 2018
Large-cap equities have generally continued to make headway in the US since the end of July, despite the fact that they have fallen in much of the rest of the developed world. Historically, equities in the US and other advanced economies have rarely moved …
4th September 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Sterling buffeted by growing uncertainty about Brexit …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US stock market unlikely to buck the global trend for long …
3rd September 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Protectionism worries likely to hit equities harder before long …
31st August 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Sustained recovery in sterling unlikely until next year …
30th August 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Relief for EM currencies proves fleeting, more pressure to come …
29th August 2018
Frontier financial markets have endured a torrid 2018, but this hasn’t been accompanied by a deterioration in the hard activity data. Admittedly, growth in the largest frontier economy, Nigeria, slowed in Q2. But that was due to weakness in the oil …
Despite rising since January, emerging market (EM) corporate credit spreads remain very tight by past standards and relative to those of their counterparts elsewhere in the world. We think that this reflects cyclical, not structural forces, and expect …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US-Mexico trade deal not the end of wider protectionism worries …
28th August 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Treasury yield curve inversion is probably only a matter of time …
24th August 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US stock market’s strength masks a sign of weakness …
23rd August 2018
The S&P 500 has not fallen by more than 20% since it began to climb after the last recession. As a result, the index has remained in a “bull market” that is about to become the longest ever, surpassing its winning streak before the dot com bubble burst in …
22nd August 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Economics still matters more than politics for the S&P 500 …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rally in the S&P 500 to go into reverse before long …
21st August 2018
We suspect that, due to technical reasons, the ECB will increase its purchases of Italian government bonds in October. This might help to prevent yields from shooting up if Italy’s Government submits a very expansionary Budget to the European Commission …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Monetary policy prospects to support the dollar until 2019 …
20th August 2018
The main factor weighing on EM assets recently has been worries about contagion from the crisis in Turkey. But even if these fears subside, there are plenty of other reasons to be pessimistic about the outlook. … Turkey’s crisis just one of many threats …
17th August 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Peak in Italian bond yields probably a long way off …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The future still looks bleak for China’s stock market …
16th August 2018
There is a widely-held view that the prices of many financial assets are bound to come crashing down sooner or later, because their valuations have risen far above the long-run averages to which they must inevitably revert. We think that this is bunkum, …
15th August 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Respite for the Turkish lira doesn’t mean relief for other EMs …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Why is gold so weak given the recent turmoil in Turkey? …
14th August 2018
Emerging market (EM) currencies have weakened against the dollar again today on worries about Turkey. While the pressure from this source might not last long, we think that the outlook is fairly poor regardless. … What the crisis in Turkey means for EM …
13th August 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Prospects for EM currencies poor regardless of Turkey’s crisis …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Chaos in Turkey another headwind for EMs and the euro …
10th August 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Lira and ruble far from the only vulnerable EM currencies …
9th August 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Calm in the US stock market not likely to last …
8th August 2018
Aside from a brief drop in July, emerging market (EM) credit spreads have generally been rising in recent months and are well above their January troughs. Nonetheless, corporate credit spreads in particular still appear very low by past standards. We …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Slide in the renminbi may not go much further …
7th August 2018
While we still assume that the UK and the EU will reach some sort of agreement over Brexit before the deadline next spring, there is clearly a significant possibility of no deal. In this scenario, we would expect sterling to fall a lot further, but UK …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fears of a no-deal Brexit continue to weigh on sterling …
6th August 2018
The Italian Treasury’s latest debt buyback has helped to contain a rise in yields related to concerns over Budget plans. But such operations can offer only temporary respite. We see the Italian 10-year yield rising to 3.5% by year-end, even assuming that …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Dollar strength likely to last into next year …
3rd August 2018
Equities in China and other parts of Emerging Asia have slumped since mid-June. But unusually, those in Latin America have surged at the same time. There are already signs that the rally in Latin America equities is faltering, though, and we expect them …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Monetary policy to support sterling despite post-rate-hike dip …
2nd August 2018
