Filtered by Subscriptions: Bonds & Equities Use setting Bonds & Equities
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Strong S&P 500 earnings growth on borrowed time …
31st October 2018
Although the valuations of emerging market (EM) equities have tumbled compared to those of their developed market (DM) peers, we are not convinced that they will deliver much higher returns over the next year as a result. There is more evidence that they …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Growth concerns finally catching up with US equities …
30th October 2018
While this month’s slump in the US stock market can’t be blamed on bad economic news, it can be attributed – at least in part – to concerns about the prospects for economic growth. We think that these worries are justified and forecast that the S&P 500 …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Optimism following Brazil’s election is likely to fade …
29th October 2018
A handful of the more vulnerable Frontier Markets, including Ukraine, Pakistan and Bahrain, have received (or are close to getting) IMF or bilateral funding, but external risks remain a key concern. For one thing, meeting the conditionality of these …
26th October 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Treasury yields likely to fall much further …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Where to weather another stock market storm …
25th October 2018
Although we expect Italian bonds to remain under pressure over the coming years as the country’s fiscal and economic outlook continues to deteriorate, we think that European bond markets are generally less vulnerable to contagion than during the Greek …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … PMI weakness may not last, but upside for the euro still limited …
24th October 2018
Although October’s EU summit has come and gone without a Brexit deal in place, implied probabilities of a “no deal” do not seem to have increased very much, which is reflected in the resilience of sterling. But with many hurdles to overcome before any …
Even stepping back from the volatility in stock markets around the world this week, global equities have clearly been weakening for a while, and are likely to do so again by the end of next year in our view. Three developments from their recent slump shed …
23rd October 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Three key patterns in the latest drop in global equities …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Prospects for EM equities poor despite Shanghai Composite surge …
22nd October 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Surge in US dollar Libor remains a puzzle …
19th October 2018
We think that the S&P 500, Treasury yields and the US dollar will all fall by the end of next year, as a sharp slowdown in the US economy prompts the Fed to stop hiking rates sooner than investors are anticipating. We expect equities outside the US to …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Shanghai Composite likely to head lower again …
18th October 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Joint rebound in the US stock market and dollar unlikely to last …
17th October 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Gold set to shine brighter as economic storm clouds gather …
16th October 2018
Even though emerging market (EM) currencies have fallen a long way against the US dollar in recent months, in most cases their valuations do not yet appear particularly low. This pours cold water on the idea that low valuations will provide significant …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Brexit stalemate likely to weigh more heavily on sterling …
15th October 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Surprising EM currency resilience not likely to last …
12th October 2018
Although the Norwegian krone has been one of the best-performing currencies during the past couple of months, we expect it to weaken over the next two years as oil prices fall, economic growth slows, and the Norges Bank ends its tightening cycle sooner …
The 5% drop in the S&P 500 so far this week suggests that investors are starting to factor in the prospect of the US economy slowing in response to tighter monetary policy. We think that this will start to happen in 2019, causing equities in the US and …
11th October 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Equity investors right to fear the effects of rising rates …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Global bond yields unlikely to keep rising sharply …
10th October 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US economy, not oil prices, the key for Treasuries …
9th October 2018
The surge in Italian government bond yields in recent months has brought back to the forefront the vulnerability of the banking sector to falls in bond prices. Given our view that Italian bond yields will continue to trend higher over the coming years and …
Although we have raised some of our bearish forecasts for developed market equities, we still think that they will fall a long way in 2019 as the US economy falters. And while we have also made a couple of tweaks to our projections for currencies and …
8th October 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Monetary easing doesn’t alter gloomy outlook for China’s equities …
Although the 10-year government bond yield in Italy has already climbed by about 60bp since plans were announced for an EU-defying budget deficit, we think that it will rise by a similar amount between now and the end of next year. If so, the stock market …
5th October 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US employment report bolsters case for further Fed tightening …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … 10-year Treasury yield likely to end next year much lower …
4th October 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Reasons to remain gloomy about EM currencies …
3rd October 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Surge in the price of oil likely to go into reverse …
2nd October 2018
Increases in the prices of industrial commodities have helped to drive a rebound in some emerging market (EM) currencies since early September. But that rebound is already showing signs of faltering. We suspect that it will unwind, as commodity prices …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Strength in the loonie likely to be short-lived …
1st October 2018
While the recent shift towards tighter monetary policy in many emerging markets (EMs) is likely to continue, this is largely priced in to markets already. But we think that local currency government bond yields will resume their rise in most cases …
28th September 2018
Italian bonds have come under renewed pressure after the government announced plans to loosen fiscal policy by more than markets anticipated over the coming years. We think that Italian bond yields will continue to trend higher as we expect the budget …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What to make of the euro’s slide in the wake of Italy’s problems …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … BTPs to remain under pressure even if budget passes without fuss …
27th September 2018
Sovereign balance sheets in most of the large emerging economies are in reasonable shape, but those in a few of the smaller Frontier Market economies are very fragile. And investors’ concerns have ratcheted up in recent weeks. The political importance …
26th September 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What future Fed policy is likely to mean for the markets …
The Japanese yen is the only “major” currency to have fared worse than the US dollar since the middle of August. Nonetheless, we think that its fortunes will improve against the greenback. Our forecast is that the exchange rate will drop back from around …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed, rather than ECB, policy likely to boost the euro next year …
25th September 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Worse to come for US corporate bonds in 2019 …
24th September 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Too soon to sound the all-clear for global equity markets …
21st September 2018
Even though emerging market (EM) assets generally weakened again over the past month, and some have now fallen a very long way, we still forecast that there is considerably more pain to come. … Trouble for EM assets probably far from …
20th September 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Peak in US Treasury yields may not be very far away …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Relief for equities from trade concerns just a lull in the storm …
19th September 2018
