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This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US monetary policy outlook points to more upside for Treasuries …
30th January 2019
We think that the reactions in bond markets to Brazil’s and Mexico’s new leaders have gone too far. Investors in Brazil look overly optimistic about President Bolsonaro’s ability to turn the public finances around, while investors in Mexico seem too …
29th January 2019
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Strong start to the year for EM currencies not likely to last …
In this Focus , we consider how sterling, Gilts and UK equities will be affected by the outcome of negotiations over Brexit and the global economic slowdown that we are anticipating. Our judgement is that the UK’s currency and 10-year government bond …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The future doesn’t look very bright for the FTSE 100 …
28th January 2019
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … PM May’s Brexit deal still unlikely to pass …
25th January 2019
We think that the darkening prospects for the global economy favour high-grade bonds over equities this year. Our forecasts are for the Chinese and euro-zone economies to lose more momentum, and for a sharp slowdown in the US economy. This will hit …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Peripheral euro-zone bonds to struggle despite loose ECB policy …
24th January 2019
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Accommodative BoJ likely to keep JGB yields low …
23rd January 2019
We have long forecast that the Australian dollar would weaken against the US dollar in 2019 owing to our bearish view of commodity prices and China’s economy. But changes to our outlook for monetary policy mean that we have now become even more negative. …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Investors’ worries about global growth likely to get worse …
22nd January 2019
We think that government bonds in the euro-zone “periphery” will fare quite poorly in the next two years – particularly in Italy and Greece – as growth disappoints and deficits overshoot expectations; European elections raise concerns; and the ECB …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Gauging the near-term outlook for sterling …
21st January 2019
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Outlook for Chinese equities poor despite trade war optimism …
18th January 2019
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Investors still seem too optimistic about S&P 500 earnings …
17th January 2019
We expect EM currencies to weaken against the US dollar in 2019, with the South African rand and Colombian peso likely to fall by more than most. The Argentine peso and Turkish lira will probably be among the worst performers too, even though collapses on …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Still more upside risk for sterling …
16th January 2019
We think that loose monetary policy and safe-haven flows will keep the German 10-year government bond yield around its current level this year and next. Yields in most other “core” countries are also likely to remain low, although we expect them to rise a …
The outlook for the euro-zone economy has deteriorated sharply in recent months, prompting us to revise down our growth forecasts for the region. In this Update we discuss the implications of these changes for euro-zone bonds, equities and the euro. … New …
15th January 2019
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Sterling scenarios in tonight’s crucial Brexit vote …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Reaction to China trade data may provide a template for 2019 …
14th January 2019
We think that EM Asian equities are set for more pain in 2019 despite their generally positive start to the year, and suspect that they will again be among the worst performers in the MSCI EM Index. We don’t expect MSCI’s EMEA or Latin America indices to …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Brexit risks to sterling are skewed to the upside …
11th January 2019
We remain of the view that slower growth in the US and Chinese economies will push stock markets down sharply again this year, and prevent the yields of high-grade bonds from rising much, if at all. Nonetheless, we have made some tweaks to our key market …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bund yields likely to remain low as euro-zone economy slows …
10th January 2019
Lower prices of commodities have weighed on the currencies of those countries whose fortunes depend heavily on them. Although we generally do not anticipate further large falls in prices in 2019, we think that the Australian and New Zealand dollars remain …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … A trade deal probably wouldn’t give equities long-lasting relief …
9th January 2019
Three big “non-consensus” calls for 2019 on our Global Markets service are i) developed market government bonds will outperform developed market equities; ii) emerging market equities won’t bottom out before developed market equities; and iii) the US …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Safe-haven assets likely to remain in demand in 2019 …
8th January 2019
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Why this isn’t likely to be a 2016 re-run for equity markets …
7th January 2019
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US employment report suggests that tightening cycle is not over …
4th January 2019
The S&P 500 has already fallen to around 2,450, a bit below our once-bearish end-2019 forecast of 2,500. This is causing us to question whether it will even end the year that high. … Putting the slump in the S&P 500 into …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Downside risks to the dollar appear to be fading …
3rd January 2019
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Renminbi’s resilience not likely to last …
2nd January 2019
Growth in frontier economies eased over the course of 2018 and we expect activity to be soft in 2019. At a regional level, we think that growth will slow further in frontier economies in Emerging Asia and Emerging Europe next year – the latter will be led …
21st December 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What to make of the rise in UK inflation compensation …
20th December 2018
Even if the domestic situation in France has calmed down, the underlying causes of the recent unrest linger. What’s more, we think that France has become more vulnerable to contagion risks from Italy. … French bonds likely to remain under pressure in …
19th December 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … “Dovish” Fed hike not likely to turn the tide for the S&P 500 …
Although corporate credit spreads in the euro-zone have already risen a long way, we think that they will continue to increase as concerns about growth in the region intensify. … Euro-zone corporate credit spreads likely to rise …
18th December 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Weakness of US equities unlikely to be reversed next year …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Making sense of the jump in the USD 3m LIBOR-OIS spread …
17th December 2018
EM equities have had a torrid year, and we doubt that things will get any better in 2019. Indeed, we forecast that the MSCI EM Index will end next year around 10% below its current level, a similarly-large fall to the one that we are forecasting in …
We think that there is more upside, than downside, risk for sterling when we weigh up the potential outcomes that could result from the chaos surrounding the UK’s scheduled departure from the EU. … Weighing up the Brexit risks for …
14th December 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … EM equities unlikely to turn the corner soon …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Loose monetary policy shouldn’t hold European currencies back …
13th December 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Inflation prospects suggest that Treasuries will continue rallying …
12th December 2018
Although the S&P 500 has already fallen by roughly 10% since early October, we don’t expect it to rebound in 2019. Given the outlook for the US economy, we think that it will end next year even lower. … Don’t bank on the US stock market recovering in …
The yield of the JP Morgan EMBI Global has edged up over the past month as a whole, despite a slump in underlying Treasury yields. We expect this pattern to be repeated next year. … EM dollar bond yields likely to rise even …
11th December 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Further fall in Treasury yields unlikely to shore up EM currencies …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Sterling’s slump won’t necessarily deepen …
10th December 2018
