Filtered by Subscriptions: Bonds & Equities Use setting Bonds & Equities
The yield of 10-year government bonds in Italy has moved in the opposite direction to the yields of 10-year government bonds in Spain and Portugal recently. While we don’t expect that to continue, we do think that their yields will continue to diverge …
23rd May 2019
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Gold likely to regain its lustre before the year is out …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The US/China trade war doesn’t pose a big risk to Treasuries …
22nd May 2019
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Sterling still at the mercy of Brexit developments …
21st May 2019
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Equities in India may continue to outperform those in Asia …
20th May 2019
We suspect that the European Parliament (EP) elections will not cause much reaction on bond markets, even if populist parties perform even better than expected. Recent elections in the EU suggest that politics trigger sell-offs only when those parties …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Aussie dollar may fall further, particularly against the yen …
17th May 2019
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bund yields likely to stay negative for much longer than in 2016 …
16th May 2019
The 2% fall in the renminbi since the US-China trade war flared up again reflects market pressure more than a deliberate policy choice – Chinese policymakers have actually been trying to slow its slide. If trade talks break down entirely, they would have …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … BTPs likely to continue underperforming other peripheral bonds …
15th May 2019
Although the rebound in US equities since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) contrasts starkly with their protracted slump after the Great Crash, it has been largely justified by a rebound in corporate profits that did not materialise then. This also …
Although equities in the euro-zone have fallen sharply in the past week as the US-China trade dispute has flared up again, they are still much higher than they were at the start of the year. This suggests that a lot of good news about trade is still …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Renminbi still a casualty, not a weapon, in trade war …
14th May 2019
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Renewed curve inversion suggests slide in S&P 500 is not over …
13th May 2019
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Post-tariff bounce in China’s stock markets unlikely to last …
10th May 2019
We think the assumption in markets that looser policy in the US and China will revive the global economy before very long is too optimistic. We are forecasting further weakness, regardless of whether a trade deal between the two countries is ultimately …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Safe havens likely to remain in demand regardless of trade deal …
9th May 2019
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Outperformance of US equities may be coming to an end …
8th May 2019
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US economy a bigger risk than renewed trade conflict to S&P 500 …
7th May 2019
While the average EM 10-year local currency sovereign bond yield has followed the equivalent US Treasury yield very closely recently, we doubt that this will last much longer. Indeed, we forecast that the Treasury yield will decline over the rest of 2019, …
We haven’t been surprised by this year’s rise in the US dollar’s value against other “majors”, despite investors’ dovish reassessment of the outlook for Fed policy. Despite its pull-back today, we forecast that the greenback will appreciate further this …
3rd May 2019
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed still likely to cut rates this year, pushing Treasury yields down …
We doubt that bond markets will be negatively affected by the European Parliament (EP) elections this month, as the rise of anti-EU parties is already widely anticipated and would not necessarily complicate EU policymaking. In fact, a strong showing by …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Powell’s inflation talk doesn’t alter our bullish view of Treasuries …
2nd May 2019
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Dovish Fed unlikely to sustain S&P 500 rally …
1st May 2019
Aggregate frontier market GDP growth probably slowed to its weakest pace since early 2017 in Q1 and, while we think that this should mark the bottom of the cycle, activity in most frontiers will remain sluggish over the next couple of years. … Growth in …
30th April 2019
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Investors still banking on an unlikely revival in China’s economy …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Politics will soon take the centre stage in European bond markets …
29th April 2019
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Dollar’s rise likely to continue, even if US GDP growth slips back …
26th April 2019
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Monetary policy may not be the key driver of DM currencies …
25th April 2019
We expect the yield of 10-year German government bonds to continue to drop this year, as investors factor in the prospect of even looser monetary policy in the euro-zone and demand for safe havens increases. But we think that the yield will rebound next …
Despite the 35% surge in oil prices this year, some of the EM currencies traditionally regarded as “petro-currencies” have hardly risen. That is not all that surprising – the influence of oil prices on them is often overstated. Our view that most EM …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Economic outlook suggests US stock market will falter again …
24th April 2019
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Oil prices unlikely to keep pushing bond yields up …
23rd April 2019
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Underperformance of German and Japanese equities may not last …
18th April 2019
The rally in EM equities has continued over the past month, seemingly driven by the view that recent weakness in the global economy will not last, as policymakers in the US and China in particular engineer a recovery. But we are sceptical, and forecast …
17th April 2019
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Chinese equities likely to fare badly, even if economy stabilises …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Italy verging towards becoming as risky as Greece …
16th April 2019
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Investors still seem too optimistic about reform in Brazil …
15th April 2019
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Hopes for a rebound in China likely to be disappointed …
12th April 2019
As earnings season kicks off today in the US, we think that investors remain too optimistic about the global outlook for earnings per share (EPS) growth, given the prospects for the world economy. That is the key reason why we forecast stock markets …
We think that euro-zone stock markets will generally fall in the rest of 2019 as global growth remains weak and appetite for risk wanes. Equities in Germany and Italy will fare particularly poorly, in our view, as the downturn in global trade continues to …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Second Brexit delay keeps sterling in limbo …
11th April 2019
Equities in the US have continued to rise in the past month, but the recent inversion of parts of the Treasury yield curve and weak economic data doesn’t bode well for the US stock market. We forecast that the S&P 500 will fall sharply over the rest of …
10th April 2019
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bund yields and the euro are likely to fall much further this year …
Although the Fed’s dovish shift is likely to continue, we are sticking with our pessimistic view of the outlook for EM sovereign dollar bonds. That is because we expect credit spreads to rise sharply later this year, as hopes that the recent soft patch in …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Tougher times ahead for EM currencies …
9th April 2019
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Earnings season the first real test for this year’s equity rally …
8th April 2019
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rise in US payrolls does not alter our bullish view of Treasuries …
5th April 2019
We think that the best-performing countries in the MSCI EM Index so far this year will end up nearer the bottom of the class over the rest of 2019. That is because we expect the key factors driving the recent rally in global equities, namely optimism …
