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We think that most risky assets will make further gains next year as policymakers continue to anchor safe bond yields around their current levels and the US dollar weakens further. After a pandemic-driven rollercoaster of a year in financial markets, …
22nd December 2020
Monthly UK gov’t borrowing will probably reach its highest level since May (07.00 GMT) We expect existing home sales in the US dropped back in November (15.00 GMT) A selection of key data and events through year-end are shown in the calendar below Key …
21st December 2020
We think that euro-zone consumer confidence fell back in December (Monday) US November personal spending figures likely to point to a drop in consumption (Wednesday) We expect Turkey’s central bank to hike its one-week repo rate by 150bp (Thursday) Key …
18th December 2020
Positive vaccine news has not changed our view that monetary policy in many emerging markets (EMs) will generally remain loose for some time yet. That is a key reason why we still expect EM local currency government bonds yields to stay low by historical …
We expect Mexico’s c. bank to hold fire for now, but cut again in 2021 (Thu., 19.00 GMT) UK retail sales probably fell last month (Fri., 07.00 GMT) We think that the German Ifo will have declined again in December (Fri., 09.00 GMT) Key Market Themes …
17th December 2020
While the real yield differential between the US and the euro-zone has moved against the euro recently we doubt that this trend will continue. And, in any case, we think that factors other than changes in real yield differentials will continue to push the …
16th December 2020
Fed set to unveil new guidance on its large-scale asset purchases (Wed., 19.00 GMT) BoE may give some clues as to how it would react to a no-deal Brexit (Thu., 12.00 GMT) Mexico’s central bank likely to hold fire for now, but cut again in 2021 (Thu., …
We think there is scope for global equities to make more headway over the next couple of years, against the backdrop of a recovering global economy and supportive monetary and fiscal policy. November saw the biggest monthly increases in MSCI’s World Index …
Frontier economies will receive only a relatively small direct economic boost from the roll-out of vaccines next year. But the indirect benefits via higher commodity prices, capital inflows and tourism spending will be more substantial. These indirect …
15th December 2020
We think that activity in China continued to improve in November (02.00 GMT) The UK unemployment rate probably ticked up in October (07.00 GMT) The US industrial recovery is likely to have continued last month (15.15 GMT) Key Market Themes The Australian …
14th December 2020
Although we have revised up our forecasts for economic growth in many emerging markets (EMs), we generally still expect monetary policy to remain loose, or be loosened further, to the benefit of local currency government bonds. Indeed, we think 10-year …
Sunday the new deadline as Brexit talks go down to the wire China’s industrial production and consumer spending probably rose strongly again (Tue.) Fed likely to update its guidance on large-scale asset purchases (Wed.) Key Market Themes With the currency …
11th December 2020
Peru’s central bank will probably keep interest rates on hold later today (23:00 GMT) We expect Korean trade data to show a continued pickup in global demand Consumer confidence in the US may have declined this month (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes The …
10th December 2020
While US corporate credit spreads are now close to their pre-pandemic levels, we think that they will fall further in general as the global economy recovers with the help of vaccines. Back in the summer, when the option-adjusted spreads (OAS) of ICE BofA …
We think that the inverse relationship between the dollar and risk appetite will remain strong over the next couple of years, against a backdrop of low and stable interest rates. We expect that the dollar will weaken further and risky assets continue to …
We expect the recent rise in US inflation compensation to continue as the economy recovers, but doubt that it will be matched by a similar increase in nominal bond yields. As such, we think real yields may fall further. To recap, the 10-year US Treasury …
We expect the ECB to extend and increase the PEPP and announce more TLTROs (12.45 GMT) We think US core CPI inflation rose only a little in November (08.30 GMT) Read our highest-conviction macro and financial market forecasts on our dedicated new page Key …
9th December 2020
Headline consumer price inflation in China probably fell to its lowest since 2010 … … but only due to falling pork prices – core inflation likely to have risen (01.30 GMT) Read our highest-conviction macro and financial market forecasts on our dedicated …
8th December 2020
US fiscal policy in the spotlight with a bipartisan deal on the table We think that South Africa’s economy grew by around 10% q/q in Q3 (09.30 GMT) Read our highest-conviction macro and financial market forecasts on our dedicated new page Key Market …
7th December 2020
We think UK October GDP data will show the recovery stalled prior to lockdowns (Thu.) We expect the ECB to announce an extension to pandemic stimulus measures (Thu.) US fiscal negotiations in the spotlight again next week, with another relief deal on the …
4th December 2020
We think that the spreads of “peripheral” government bonds in the euro-zone are likely to fall next year to levels not seen since before the region’s sovereign debt crisis and that they will stay low over the next decade. This reflects our view of the …
New restrictions probably meant a smaller rise in November’s non-farm payrolls (13.30 GMT) An uptick in Russia’s inflation might take further rate cuts off the table for now (16.00 GMT) Ireland’s and Greece’s Q3 GDP data likely to show rebounds, but …
3rd December 2020
With positive news on COVID-19 vaccines increasing the chances of a strong global economic recovery next year, risky assets have rallied over the past month. While we think the stage is set for them to continue to do so, in this Update we identify five …
We think that the limited reaction of developed market government bonds to positive vaccine news is a sign of things to come. While the introduction of effective vaccines should help drive a stronger economic recovery early next year, it does not …
2nd December 2020
Brazil GDP data likely to show the economy was only 3.5% smaller than pre-virus in Q3 We think that the US ISM services index dropped back in November (14.45 GMT) Read our highest-conviction macro and financial market forecasts on our dedicated new page …
The unemployment rate in the euro-zone probably edged up in October (10.00 GMT) We expect the November ADP report to show US employment growth slowing (13.15 GMT) Read our highest-conviction macro and financial market forecasts on our dedicated new page …
1st December 2020
The RBA looks set to leave monetary policy on hold tomorrow (03.30 GMT) We think Swiss and Canadian GDP rebounded strongly in Q3 The US ISM Manufacturing Index probably fell in November (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes The euro has risen to its highest level …
30th November 2020
We expect Australia’s central bank to keep policy unchanged (Tuesday) We think that Brazil’s economy rebounded strongly in Q3 (Thursday) Spread of COVID-19 probably meant smaller gains in November’s non-farm payrolls (Friday) Key Market Themes Given this …
27th November 2020
Equities and bonds in emerging markets (EMs) rallied sharply on the vaccine news earlier this month, particularly outside of Asia. We think they will continue to fare well as the global economy recovers. The reaction of EM assets to the vaccine news …
Lighter UK restrictions from 2 nd December unlikely to improve economic outlook much Euro-zone economic sentiment indicator probably fell in November (10.00 GMT) ECB minutes reiterate that more easing is likely in December Key Market Themes Although this …
26th November 2020
Minutes from the ECB could indicate its plans for the upcoming December meeting … … while we expect the Riksbank will increase the size of its QE programme (08.30 GMT) US markets are closed tomorrow for the Thanksgiving Day holiday Key Market Themes We …
25th November 2020
We continue to think that stock markets will make further headway against a backdrop of a recovering global economy and continued accommodative monetary policy, as investors increasingly focus on the rollout of effective vaccines rather than on rising …
The UK’s OBR may revise down its economic forecasts (13.00 GMT) US durable goods orders probably continued to recover in October… (13.30 GMT) … but we suspect consumption didn’t hold up quite as well (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes Although the US dollar …
24th November 2020
We think Germany’s Ifo business climate indicator fell in November (09:00 GMT) US consumer confidence may have declined further this month as well (15:00 GMT) Mid-month data likely to show inflation in Brazil and Mexico around 4% Key Market Themes We …
23rd November 2020
Zambia became the first African government to default during the current crisis and debt risks are high in several other Frontier Markets, including Ghana and Kenya. The G20’s recently-announced ‘Common Framework’ to provide debt relief is a step in the …
Although India’s economy has struggled more than most in the COVID-19 pandemic, its equity market has performed relatively well lately. We expect the contrast between the economy and the equity market in India to continue over the next couple of years. …
20th November 2020
We have revised up our forecast for the euro against the US dollar, as we expect that conditions driving the euro’s appreciation will persist over the next few years despite near-term headwinds. The euro has appreciated more than 10% against the greenback …
More easing likely from central banks of Indonesia and the Philippines after rate cuts today We think that UK retail sales growth slowed prior to November’s lockdown (07.00 GMT) EZ consumer confidence probably fell this month (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes …
19th November 2020
After underperforming the MSCI USA Index for most of 2020, the MSCI Japan Index has started to outperform it in recent days. Provided COVID-19 is brought under control in most major economies, we think that this trend will continue over next couple of …
US initial jobless claims probably continued their gradual decline last week (13.30 GMT) We think Turkey’s central bank will appease investors with a 450bp rate hike (11.00 GMT)… …but expect central banks in Indonesia and the Philippines to cut rates …
18th November 2020
We suspect that UK CPI inflation remained around 0.5% in October (07.00 GMT) GDP data likely to show Chile’s economy on the road to recovery (11.30 GMT) US housing starts probably rose again in October (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes Long-term inflation …
17th November 2020
GDP data likely to show that Norway’s economy bounced back strongly in Q3 (07:00 GMT) We expect Hungary’s central bank to leave its policy rate unchanged (13:00 GMT) US retail sales probably made further gains in October (13:30 GMT) Key Market Themes …
16th November 2020
We think that Japan’s GDP rebounded more strongly than consensus expects (Sun.) US retail sales and industrial production will probably show further gains in October (Tue.) We expect Turkey’s central bank to hike rates in order to stabilise the lira …
13th November 2020
We continue to think that risky assets will gain more ground and that the US dollar will weaken against a backdrop of a recovering global economy and continued accommodative monetary policy. In our view, the outcome of the recent US elections and the news …
UK GDP growth probably slowed in September (07.00 GMT) We think policymakers in Egypt and Peru will keep interest rates on hold… … but we expect Mexico’s central bank to cut rates (19.00 GMT) Key Market Themes While emerging market (EM) currencies have …
11th November 2020
We think that the RBNZ will pave the way for negative rates next year (01.00 GMT) Korea’s export values probably rose further above their pre-crisis levels in early November ECB’s Forum may reveal policymakers’ thinking about the impact of an early …
10th November 2020
All major news outlets have called the US presidential election for Joe Biden Chinese inflation for October may show a significant decline (01:30 GMT) We think there were significant job losses in the UK in September (07:00 GMT) Key Market Themes Most “ …
9th November 2020
We expect the RBNZ to announce a lending programme to prepare for negative rates (Wed.) UK GDP data will probably show the recovery slowed even before new restrictions (Thu.) We think slowing inflation in India & Mexico will raise prospects of more easing …
6th November 2020
While there could still be more twists and turns to come after this week’s elections in the US, in general we expect equities there to outperform Treasuries between voting day and the end of 2022. The S&P 500 has risen significantly since voting day, even …
US presidential election hinges on outstanding results in a few key states We doubt that the Fed will announce any major policy changes (19.00 GMT) … … but expect the Bank of England to expand QE, with more to come in 2021 (12.00 GMT) Key Market Themes …
4th November 2020
