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The Bank of England is likely to keep policy unchanged at its upcoming meeting… (12.00 BST) … but we expect central banks in Brazil and Czechia to hike rates We think inflation rose further in Russia (17.00 BST) Key Market Themes The share prices of most …
4th August 2021
US ADP report will give first clues about the health of the labour market in July (13.15 BST) We expect Brazil’s central bank to hike its policy rate by 100bp, to 5.25% (22.30 BST) Euro-zone retail sales probably rose by around 2% m/m in June (10.00 BST) …
3rd August 2021
We expect the RBA to push back tapering its asset purchases to November (04.30 BST) We forecast that headline inflation in Turkey rose to 19% y/y in July (08.00 BST) Read our highest conviction macroeconomic forecasts and their market implications here …
2nd August 2021
We think that US non-farm payrolls rose by about 650,000 in July (Friday) Early end to the BoE’s assets purchases looks unlikely (Thursday) RBA may delay the tapering of its asset purchases in light of recent lockdowns (Tuesday) Key Market Themes Although …
30th July 2021
While long-dated government bond yields have plummeted in recent months, we suspect that high inflation and the prospect of tighter monetary policy will see them turn a corner before long. We forecast long-term yields to rise across most major economies, …
We think that inflation edged up in the euro-zone last month … (10.00 BST) … while Q2 GDP data are likely to show that the recovery there accelerated (10.00 BST) Personal spending in the US probably rose in June even as income dropped back (13.30 BST) Key …
29th July 2021
Sweden’s GDP likely to have risen back above pre-pandemic level (08.30 BST) We think the euro-zone’s ESI rose to a 22-year high this month (10.00 BST) US GDP growth probably accelerated in Q2, but Q3 looks less promising (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes The …
28th July 2021
In the early 2000s, a ‘glut’ of global saving may have helped restrain rises in long-term US bond yields, even as investors began to discount tighter monetary policy. We don’t think that similar factors explain the latest fall in yields, nor do we expect …
Fed unlikely to be ready to issue tapering guidance (19.00 BST) Canada’s headline inflation probably fell from 3.6% to about 3.2% in June (13.30 BST) We are now anticipating a faster tightening cycle in Hungary Key Market Themes Although equity indices in …
27th July 2021
While we no longer expect peripheral spreads to narrow this year, we still think that they will remain close to their current levels, which are close to the lowest since the Global Financial Crisis. Around a year ago, we argued that the spreads of 10-year …
23rd July 2021
We think UK retail sales fell further in May as consumption shifted to services (07.00 BST) Markit PMIs for the euro-zone are likely to indicate a continued expansion in July (09.00 BST) Russia’s central bank is likely to raise its policy rate by 100bp …
22nd July 2021
Though we think that the recent decline in the 10-year Bund yield is an overreaction, we expect it to rise only a little over the next couple of years, and by less than yields in many other developed markets . To recap, after rising for most of this year, …
We think central banks in Indonesia and South Africa will leave policy on hold tomorrow Inflation in Mexico probably remained high in the first half of July (12.00 BST) The ECB will probably amend its policy statement to account for its new target (12.45 …
21st July 2021
UK government borrowing probably undershot the OBR’s forecast in June (07.00 BST) We think Korea’s exports levelled off in the first 20 days of June (00.00 BST) Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their implication here Key Market Themes We …
20th July 2021
Inflation in Japan may have turned positive in June (00.30 BST) China’s benchmark loan prime rate unlikely to change despite RRR cut (02.30 BST) US housing starts probably rebounded in June (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes In recent weeks, it has often …
19th July 2021
ECB unlikely to change policy settings, but may amend forward guidance (Thu.) We expect Russia’s central bank to hike its policy rate by 100bp (Thu.) Flash composite PMIs probably rose in the euro-zone, but fell in the UK, this month (Fri.) Key Market …
16th July 2021
Although we expect a significant fall in the price of oil to put some pressure on the energy sector of the US corporate bond market, we expect spreads more generally to remain quite low in the next few years. Since their sharp rise at the onset of the …
We expect a 25bp policy rate hike in Chile later on Wednesday (23.00 BST) We think that activity data will point to a further slowdown in China’s economy (03.00 BST) Supply constraints may have caused US manufacturing output to fall in May (14.15 BST) Key …
14th July 2021
New Zealand’s central bank is likely to strike a hawkish tone (02.00 BST) UK headline inflation probably edged up last month (07.00 BST) We think that the Bank of Canada will taper its asset purchases further (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes While the …
13th July 2021
We think that US core CPI inflation rose above 4% last month (13.30 BST) China’s June trade data should show how much disruption port closures caused Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key Market Themes The …
12th July 2021
We don’t expect the latest tumble in long-dated US Treasury yields to continue, and still think yields will rise significantly over the next few years. But given developments over the past couple of months, we have pared back our expectations for …
9th July 2021
While we don’t think that risky assets are in a systemic bubble, we suspect there is limited scope for further large increases in valuations to drive their prices higher over the next few years . Despite the fall in equity markets this week, the …
ECB announces revamp of its policy framework, including new inflation target China’s June inflation data may point to easing price pressures (02.30 BST) UK GDP probably grew strongly in May as COVID-19 restrictions lifted (07.00 BST) Key Market Themes …
8th July 2021
We expect Poland’s central bank to stay on hold but revise up its forecast for GDP and inflation Inflation probably remained unchanged in Mexico last month (12.00 BST) … … while inflation is likely to have edged up in Brazil and Chile (13.00 BST) Key …
7th July 2021
Fed minutes may shed more light on officials’ latest thinking about tapering (14.00 BST) We expect Germany’s industrial production to have edged up in May (07.00 BST) Russia’s headline inflation probably rose last month (17.00 BST) Key Market Themes …
6th July 2021
EZ retail sales for May likely to underline the strength of economic recovery (Tue.) FOMC minutes may provide detail on tapering discussion (Wed.) Reopening probably boosted UK GDP in May (Fri.) Key Market Themes Although the 10-year Treasury yield hardly …
2nd July 2021
Although oil prices and inflation compensation have historically moved in lockstep, we don’t think our projection that oil prices will fall over the next couple of years is inconsistent with our forecast for long-term Treasury yields to rise quite a bit. …
We think that there is more scope for earnings expectations to improve outside, than inside, the US. In both cases, though, we are not anticipating upward revisions on the scale seen over the past year . A significant degree of optimism about the economic …
We expect US non-farm payrolls to have risen by around 500,000 in June (13.30 BST) The US trade deficit probably widened again in May (13.30 BST) Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key Market Themes The US …
1st July 2021
We think Sweden’s Riksbank could signal a rate hike in late 2023 (08.30 BST) June’s ISM Manufacturing Index may provide insight on recent supply shortages (15.00 BST) Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key …
30th June 2021
We expect that China’s manufacturing PMIs edged down in June (02.00 BST) The flash estimate of euro-zone HICP inflation probably fell slightly in June (10.00 BST) Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key Market …
29th June 2021
We think investors may be overestimating how much monetary policy tightening is on the way in emerging markets (EMs), but still expect long-dated EM government bond yields to rise a bit from here. Over the past month the tightening cycle among EM central …
UK consumer credit likely to have increased as the economy reopened (09.30 BST) We think economic sentiment in the euro-zone continued to improve (10.00 BST) Colombia’s central bank will probably stay on hold, but sound more hawkish Key Market Themes …
28th June 2021
Euro-zone inflation likely to have risen above 2% as the economy re-opened (Wed.) June PMIs for Asia may suggest that demand for the region’s exports has peaked (Thu.) We think labour supply shortages continued to limit gains in US payrolls this month …
25th June 2021
We think that US real consumption fell slightly in May… … while change in the core PCE deflator remained high, at 0.6% m/m (13.30 BST) Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key Market Themes The yield of 10-year …
24th June 2021
Although the 10-year Treasury yield has eased back following last week’s FOMC meeting, we still expect it to increase again before too long. To recap, after surging following the FOMC meeting, the 10-year Treasury yield has since given up its gains . At …
The hawkish surprise delivered by the Fed at its latest meeting and the subsequent market reaction have not changed our view that the 10-year US Treasury yield will end the year higher and that the “rotation trade” in equity markets will resume before …
Germany’s Ifo survey likely to rise again this month (09.00 BST) We don’t expect BoE to suggest it is any closer to tightening policy (12.00 BST) Banxico likely to look through rising inflation (19.00 BST) Key Market Themes As the dust finally begins to …
23rd June 2021
Fed Chair Powell may comment on the FOMC apparent hawkish shift in House testimony Q&A PMIs could reveal whether shortages continued to weigh on manufacturing output in June We expect the Czech central bank to hike its policy rate by 25bp, to 0.5% (13.30 …
22nd June 2021
Euro-zone and UK composite PMIs probably rose further in June (Wed.) BoE meeting should provide clues as to how concerned it is about rising inflation (Thu.) We think US durable orders rose in May, but real consumption declined Key Market Themes We think …
18th June 2021
The yields of 10-year US Treasuries and German Bunds have moved in lockstep since the latest Fed meeting, but we doubt that this will continue. While we expect the Treasury yield to rise sharply between now and the end of 2022, we think that the Bund …
Wednesday’s hawkish surprise from the Fed adds weight to our views that i) the US stock market will see only limited gains between now and the end of 2023, even as the economy generally continues to power ahead and ii) the stock market ‘rotation trade’ …
We think UK retail sales rose further above their pre-pandemic level in May (07.00 BST) The Bank of Japan may extend its emerging lending facility Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key Market Themes The market …
17th June 2021
We expect both the SNB and Norges Bank to leave interest rates on hold… (8.30/9.00 BST) … and Turkey’s central bank is likely to also stand pat, for now (12.00 BST) Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key Market …
16th June 2021
Fed may begin discussion of how to eventually begin tapering its asset purchases (19.00 BST) We think industrial production growth in China slowed last month (03.00 BST) We expect the central bank of Brazil to raise its policy rate by 75bp to 4.25% (22.30 …
15th June 2021
UK unemployment rate probably fell while wage growth rose in April (07.00 BST) We think that US retail sales fell back from a high level in May (13.30 BST) US industrial production may have risen at a slower pace last month (14.15 BST) Key Market Themes …
14th June 2021
While we think that inflation in the US will prove more persistent than both the Fed and investors appear to anticipate, we still expect the S&P 500 to make some further gains over the next couple of years . The past few months have brought increasing …
11th June 2021
The rise in commodity prices has boosted some commodity-heavy stock markets, but we suspect that it will run out of steam before long, limiting those stock markets’ gains over the next couple of years. The surge in commodity prices over the past few …
10th June 2021
US consumer confidence and inflation expectations probably picked up in April (15.00 BST) We think UK GDP expanded by 3% m/m in April (07.00 BST) Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key Market Themes Despite the …
ECB may prepare the ground for gradual tapering of PEPP purchases later this year (12.45 BST) US core CPI inflation probably hit a 28-year high in May (13.30 BST) Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key Market …
9th June 2021
