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The FOMC’s latest “dot plot” is likely to be the focus of today’s announcement We expect Norges Bank to be the first G10 central bank to hike rates … (09.00 BST) … and the Bank of England to keep rates and asset purchases unchanged (12.00 BST) Key Market …
22nd September 2021
Probably too soon for a Fed tapering announcement (19.00 BST) China’s loan prime rate (LPR) likely to be steady for now, but to fall before long (02.30 BST) We expect Brazil’s central bank to hike its policy rate by 100bp (22.00 BST) Key Market Themes …
21st September 2021
We think that UK public sector net borrowing remained elevated in August (07.00 BST) Policymakers in Sweden look likely to leave rates on hold … (08.30 BST) … but we expect Hungary’s central bank to hike its policy rate by another 30bp (13.00 BST) Key …
20th September 2021
Probably too soon for the Fed to announce tapering; new 2024 rate projections due (Wed.) Brazil’s central bank likely to raise its policy rate by a further 100bp (Wed.) We think Norway’s central bank will begin its tightening cycle with a 25bp hike (Thu.) …
17th September 2021
While we expect the yields of long-dated sovereign bonds to increase further across developed markets over the next two years, we think they will rise by more in the US than in the euro-zone and the UK. This is based on our view that inflation will prove …
We don’t expect the recent surge in Japan’s stock market to last, and think it will make much smaller gains over the next couple of years . The remarkable rally in Japan’s stock market over the past couple of weeks, following the resignation of the …
Despite the fall in oil prices that we expect over the coming years, we forecast the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) EMEA Index to make further gains and continue to outperform the broader MSCI EM Index. The recent strong performance of equities in EMEA adds …
We think that UK retail sales rebounded last month (07.00 BST) US consumer confidence probably remained subdued during September (15.00 BST) See our latest research on inflation from the CE Spotlight series here Key Market Themes Although we doubt the …
16th September 2021
We think lockdowns weighed on employment in Australia in August (01.30 BST) US retail sales probably fell again last month (13.30 BST) See our latest top-line forecasts across economies and markets here Key Market Themes The renewed rise in consumer price …
15th September 2021
The UK unemployment rate probably declined in July … … but the annual pace of earnings growth is likely to have dropped too (07.00 BST) We forecast that US core inflation fell from 4.3% in July to 4.1% in August (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes Despite …
13th September 2021
We expect a smaller rise in US core consumer prices in August (Tuesday)… …but think that inflation rose sharply in the UK last month (Wednesday) China’s activity data may suggest that its economy is losing further momentum (Wednesday) Key Market Themes …
10th September 2021
While uncertainty remains about the implications of the resignation of Japan’s PM Suga for the country’s equities, we think the big picture is that they will see relatively small gains over the next couple of years. The resignation of Japan’s Prime …
We think the UK economy lost some momentum in July (07.00 BST) We expect Russia’s central bank to hike by 50bp at its meeting on Friday (11.30 BST) US producer prices for August may show further inflationary pressure (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes The ECB …
9th September 2021
We think that factory-gate inflation in China reached a new high in August (02.30 BST) The ECB is likely to prepare the ground for tapering its emergency asset purchases (12.45 BST) Inflation last month probably remained above central bank targets in both …
8th September 2021
We think that the increase in long-dated Treasury yields which we forecast will push up the yields of equivalent emerging market (EM) local-currency (LC) bonds. Based on historical relationships, we expect yields to rise by less than in the US in most …
We think CPI inflation in China held broadly steady at around 1% last month (02.30 BST) We expect the Bank of Canada to leave its policy settings unchanged (15.00 BST) Inflation in Russia probably rose further above the central bank’s target in August …
7th September 2021
We think that the RBA will press ahead with tapering its asset purchases (04.30 BST) Supply bottlenecks probably continued to weigh on German industrial production (07.00 BST) We think South Africa’s economy barely expanded in Q2 (10.30 BST) Key Market …
6th September 2021
We don’t think tapering by the Fed will cause long-term Treasury yields to rise sharply, although it may contribute some upward pressure. But we do think those yields will rise quite a bit anyway, mainly because of the outlook for inflation in the US. …
3rd September 2021
Weaker demand probably weighed on China’s trade in August (Tue.) Inflation probably remained above target in Brazil, Mexico, Chile & Colombia in August We think the ECB will decide to scale back its emergency asset purchases next week (Thu.) Key Market …
We doubt that a further fall in Turkey’s inflation will prompt rate cuts quite yet (08.00 BST) Euro-zone retail sales probably dipped in July (10.00 BST) We expect a 750,000 rise in US non-farm payrolls in August (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes Although …
2nd September 2021
We expect the US ISM Manufacturing Index fell further in August (15.00 BST) Euro-zone unemployment probably ticked down in July (10.00 BST) We think that Brazil’s GDP growth slowed to 0.2% q/q in Q2 (08.00 BST) Key Market Themes While we think that …
31st August 2021
We think slower growth in China will continue to weigh on the country’s stock market, as well as those of some other emerging markets (EMs). This month’s activity data out of China emphasised how the country’s economy has continued to slow. The latest …
27th August 2021
Sweden’s GDP growth probably increased last quarter (08.30 BST) US real consumption likely to have fallen back in July (13.30 BST) Powell due to speak at virtual Jackson Hole conference (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes The S&P 500 remains within a whisker of …
26th August 2021
A year after the Fed announced its new policy framework, we think that bond markets still don’t fully reflect the likelihood of a prolonged period of above-target inflation. While much of investors’ attention at the Fed’s Jackson Hole conference later …
25th August 2021
We expect the Bank of Korea to start tightening, despite recent virus wave Account of ECB’s July meeting may shed more light on changes to its forward guidance Further rise in Brazil’s inflation probably paves the way for another big rate hike next month …
We think that inflation in Brazil rose further in the first half of this month (13.00 BST) We expect US core durable goods orders increased again last month (13.30 BST) Industrial production growth in Russia probably remained elevated in July (17.00 BST) …
24th August 2021
Mexico’s inflation probably remained well above target in the first half of August (12.00 BST) We expect a 30bp rate hike from Hungary’s central bank (13.00 BST) Read our highest conviction macroeconomic forecasts and their market implications here Key …
23rd August 2021
US durable goods orders probably saw another decent rise in July (Wed.) The account of July’s ECB meeting may reveal views on changes to forward guidance (Thu.) We don’t expect a definitive statement on tapering from the Fed’s Powell at Jackson Hole …
20th August 2021
Progress made by countries in dealing with COVID-19 still seems to have had little bearing, in general, on the relative performance of their stock markets. Instead, swings in sentiment about the virus at a global level appear to have continued to exert a …
We don’t expect emerging market (EM) equities, as a whole, to rack up big gains over the next few years thanks in part to the spillovers of lower growth in China. The latest tumble in EM equities, following the tapering discussion in yesterday’s FOMC …
19th August 2021
We expect China’s central bank to leave its benchmark rate on hold for now (02.00 BST) We think retail sales growth in the UK fell back in July... (07.00 BST) ... but it probably rebounded strongly in Canada in June (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes The muted …
We think employment in Australia fell last month due to lockdowns (02.30 BST) We expect Norway’s central bank to leave policy unchanged until next month (09.00 BST) Housing price gains in Canada probably accelerated in July (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes …
18th August 2021
We expect policymakers in New Zealand to hike rates by 25bp (03.00 BST) We think that inflation in the UK fell back a bit last month (07.00 BST) FOMC minutes from July could provide more details on tapering discussions (14.00 BST) Key Market Themes We …
17th August 2021
US retail sales for July likely to be consistent with slower Q3 consumption growth (13.30 BST) We expect that Euro-zone employment growth picked up in Q2 (10.00 BST) In the UK, underlying wage pressures probably remained subdued in June (07.00 BST) Key …
16th August 2021
Euro-zone employment probably rebounded in Q2 (Tue.) FOMC minutes may provide some clarity on the central bank’s plans for tapering (Wed.) We expect the RBNZ to surprise with a 50bp hike (Wed.) Key Market Themes In our view, most ‘ risky’ assets are …
13th August 2021
We think tapering by the Fed will remove an obstacle in the way of higher long-term yields, supporting our view that their latest rebound will continue, in general, over the next couple of years. Recent commentary by Fed officials has brought a slowing of …
Given our forecasts for the paths of monetary policy across developed markets, we expect a general ‘bear steepening’ of sovereign yield curves in the near term, particularly in the US, Canada and Australia. As it stands, our forecasts imply that most …
We expect Mexico’s central bank to hike its policy rate by 25bp later today (19.00 BST) Sweden’s core inflation was probably very weak in July (08.30 BST) Virus concerns likely to have weighed on US consumer confidence in August (15.00 BST) Key Market …
12th August 2021
US headline and core consumer prices probably rose at a slower pace last month (13.30 BST) US Senate on the cusp of passing the bipartisan infrastructure package Brazil’s tightening cycle probably has much further to go, as inflation hits 9% Key Market …
10th August 2021
The disbursement of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) from the IMF later this month is a boon for some Frontier Markets that face very high borrowing costs. But beyond this, it is hard to find many positives for Frontiers. The spread of the Delta variant, …
We think that core inflation fell further below target in Norway in July (07.00 BST) Headline inflation in Brazil probably rose again, to nearly 9% (13.00 BST) US Senate moving closer to passing bipartisan infrastructure package Key Market Themes Our …
9th August 2021
US July CPI data likely to point to another strong monthly rise in prices (Wednesday) China’s headline inflation probably eased further last month (Monday) We expect the central bank of Mexico to hike its policy rate by 25bp, to 4.5% (Thursday) Key Market …
6th August 2021
While the earnings of firms in the S&P 500 have generally surprised to the upside in the second quarter of this year (Q2), we think the scope for further positive earnings surprises from here is limited . With around 80% of companies in the S&P 500 now …
We expect US non-farm payrolls to have risen by about 650,000 in July (13.30 BST) We think Germany’s industrial production rose by 2% m/m in June (07.00 BST) Wage growth in Japan probably edged up to around 2% in June (08.30 BST) Key Market Themes The …
5th August 2021
While measures of the valuation of China’s stock market have fallen recently, we don’t expect them to rebound soon. This helps to underpin our fairly downbeat forecasts for the country’s stock indices. After getting close to its highest levels in over a …
The Bank of England is likely to keep policy unchanged at its upcoming meeting… (12.00 BST) … but we expect central banks in Brazil and Czechia to hike rates We think inflation rose further in Russia (17.00 BST) Key Market Themes The share prices of most …
4th August 2021
US ADP report will give first clues about the health of the labour market in July (13.15 BST) We expect Brazil’s central bank to hike its policy rate by 100bp, to 5.25% (22.30 BST) Euro-zone retail sales probably rose by around 2% m/m in June (10.00 BST) …
3rd August 2021
We expect the RBA to push back tapering its asset purchases to November (04.30 BST) We forecast that headline inflation in Turkey rose to 19% y/y in July (08.00 BST) Read our highest conviction macroeconomic forecasts and their market implications here …
2nd August 2021
We think that US non-farm payrolls rose by about 650,000 in July (Friday) Early end to the BoE’s assets purchases looks unlikely (Thursday) RBA may delay the tapering of its asset purchases in light of recent lockdowns (Tuesday) Key Market Themes Although …
30th July 2021
While long-dated government bond yields have plummeted in recent months, we suspect that high inflation and the prospect of tighter monetary policy will see them turn a corner before long. We forecast long-term yields to rise across most major economies, …
