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We now think that, rather than remaining broadly stable, the spreads of euro-zone “peripheral” bonds will widen somewhat over the next two years as the ECB gradually normalises monetary policy. That said, we still expect spreads to remain low by …
17th November 2021
The UK labour market probably weathered the end of the furlough scheme well (07.00 GMT) We think Hungary’s central bank will raise its policy rate by 30bp (13.00 GMT) US industrial production may have rebounded by 0.7% last month (13.30 GMT) Key Market …
15th November 2021
High inflation may have lifted US retail sales values in October (Tuesday) UK inflation probably rose sharply last month (Wednesday) We expect a 100bp rate hike from Turkey’s central bank (Thursday) Key Market Themes After its most recent surge on the …
12th November 2021
In contrast with our expectations for sovereign bond yields to rise around the rest of the world, we think that the 10-year Chinese government bond (CGB) yield will decline over the next couple of years as the country’s central bank loosens monetary …
We think expectations for corporate earnings in the US and most of Europe are unlikely to improve much further. One exception is the UK, where earnings expectations look a bit less upbeat . Back in July, we showed that expectations for corporate earnings …
We expect central banks in Mexico and Peru to hike rates by 25bp and 75bp, respectively Supply chain issues may have hampered euro-zone industry in September (10.00 GMT) We think US consumer confidence remained low this month (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes …
11th November 2021
The precipitous decline in Sri Lanka’s foreign exchange reserves means the risk of a near-term sovereign debt default is increasing. Elsewhere, Tunisia also stands out on account of its public debt problems. Fiscal challenges look severe in Ghana, Oman …
We think UK GDP rose by just 0.1% m/m in September (07.00 GMT) Mexico’s central bank likely to raise its policy rate by 25bp, to 5.0% (19.00 GMT) Australia’s unemployment rate probably edged up in October (01.30 GMT) Key Market Themes US Treasury yields …
10th November 2021
Inflation in China probably picked up to 1.3% in October (01.30 GMT) The Bank of Thailand is likely to keep rates on hold at 0.5% (07.05 GMT) We think US inflation reached 5.9% in October (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes The weakness in China’s real estate …
9th November 2021
We expect Romania’s central bank to raise its policy rate by 50bp Inflation in Mexico probably rose further above target last month (12.00 GMT) US producer price data likely to show costs continuing to rise rapidly (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes Last …
8th November 2021
China’s trade surplus probably fell in October (Sun.) US headline CPI inflation likely to have risen to nearly 6% last month (Wed.) We think policy rates will rise in Romania, Mexico and Peru next week Key Market Themes The decline in long-dated Treasury …
5th November 2021
While Brazil’s bond and stock markets have struggled lately, we don’t think either are set for a significant rebound any time soon, and suspect both will remain under pressure in the run-up to next year’s election. The falls in Brazil’s financial markets …
German industrial production probably increased only slightly in September (07.00 GMT) We forecast a 300,000 gain in US non-farm payrolls last month … … but think that the monthly pace of hiring slowed substantially in Canada (12.30 GMT) Key Market Themes …
4th November 2021
Fed set to announce the start of asset purchase tapering (Wednesday 18.00 GMT) We expect the BoE to hike its policy rate by 15bp, to 0.25% (Thursday 12.00 GMT) We think the composite PMIs for Italy and Spain fell in October (Thursday) Key Market Themes We …
3rd November 2021
While the recent rise in the yields of short-dated developed market (DM) government bonds looks overdone to us, we still think that the yields of long-dated bonds will resume their rise . Charts 1 and 2 show that DM yield curves have flattened …
We expect Poland’s central bank to hike rates by 25bp The euro-zone’s unemployment rate probably fell in September (10.00 GMT) The Fed is likely to announce the start of asset purchase tapering (18.00 GMT) Key Market Themes Although near-term inflationary …
2nd November 2021
RBA likely to announce end of its short-term yield target (03.30 GMT) Inflation in Switzerland probably remained low last month (07.30 GMT) We think New Zealand’s labour market recovery stalled last quarter (21.45 GMT) Key Market Themes While the spreads …
1st November 2021
Fed likely to announce start of tapering, and signal concerns about inflation (Wed.) We think that the BoE will be the next DM central bank to hike rates (Thu.) Labour shortages probably continued to limit US employment growth (Fri.) Key Market Themes …
29th October 2021
Japan’s industrial production may have fallen sharply last month (00.50 BST) We think that the euro-zone inflation rose even further, to 3.6% in October (10.00 BST) Colombia’s central bank will probably hike its policy rate by 25bp (19.00 BST) Key Market …
28th October 2021
While long-dated government bond yields have risen quite a bit in recent months, we suspect that continued inflationary pressure and the prospect of tighter monetary policy means they still have some way to climb. We expect yields to rise by the most in …
27th October 2021
Brazil’s central bank likely to up the pace of its tightening cycle (Wednesday 22.30 BST) BoJ may revise down growth forecasts, but policy unlikely to change; ECB to stand pat too We think US GDP rose by around 2% q/q annualised in Q3 (Thursday 13.30 BST) …
The UK government is likely to announce stringent new fiscal rules (12.30 BST) The Bank of Canada will probably call time on quantitative easing (15.00 BST) We think Brazil’s central bank will hike its policy rate by a further 150bp (22.30 BST) Key Market …
26th October 2021
We think that Korea’s recovery gathered a little momentum in Q3 (00.00 BST) Inflation in Brazil likely to have remained well-above target in mid-October (13.00 BST) We expect that US consumer confidence weakened this month (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes …
25th October 2021
ECB and BoJ likely to stick to their guns; rate hikes likely in Brazil and Colombia US GDP growth probably slowed significantly in Q3 (Thu.) We think surging energy prices have driven euro-zone inflation higher this month (Fri.) Key Market Themes While …
22nd October 2021
Flash composite PMIs for the euro-zone and the UK probably dropped back in October We expect the central bank of Russia to hike its policy rate by 50bp, to 7.25% (11.30 BST) Inflation in Mexico likely to have stayed above target in mid-October (12.00 BST) …
21st October 2021
Although slowing growth in China has probably weighed on US Treasury yields in the past, we don’t expect it to prevent them from rising over the next couple of years. The latest activity data out of China emphasise how much the country’s economy – which …
UK public borrowing may have fallen by more than expected in September (07.00 BST) We anticipate a 100bp rate cut from Turkey’s central bank (12.00 BST) Read our highest conviction macroeconomic forecasts and their market implications here Key Market …
20th October 2021
We expect Indonesia’s central bank to leave rates on hold tomorrow... (08.20 BST) ... while Hungary’s may deliver a 15bp hike (13.00 BST) Read our highest conviction macroeconomic forecasts and their market implications here Key Market Themes Rather than …
18th October 2021
We don’t think the low valuations of emerging market (EM) equity indices relative to those of developed markets (DMs) is reason to expect EM equities to outperform over the next couple of years. Equity market valuations, as measured by price/forward …
China’s September activity data may point to further economic slowdown (Mon.) We think US industrial production fell sharply in September (Mon.) Turkey’s central bank will probably cut its policy rate by 100bp (Thu.) Key Market Themes We doubt that …
15th October 2021
Sacking of MPC members at Turkey’s central bank paves the way for more loosening A drop in car sales may have hit growth in US retail sales last month (13.30 BST) We think that US consumer confidence remained subdued in early October (15.00 BST) Key …
14th October 2021
While the yields of long-dated government bonds in the euro-zone, UK and US have dropped back a bit in recent days, we think they will rise between now and the end of 2023. We expect increases in yields to be particularly large in the US given our view …
FOMC minutes may shed more light on the Fed’s tapering plans (Wed. 19.00 BST) We expect Chile’s central bank to hike its policy rate by 100bp (Wed. 22.00 BST) China’s producer price inflation probably rose to a record high last month (Thu. 02.30 BST) Key …
13th October 2021
Bank of Korea probably on hold this week, but could signal November rate hike UK unemployment rate likely to have fallen in August (07.00 BST) JOLTS & NFIB surveys may provide further evidence of labour shortages in the US Key Market Themes We expect the …
11th October 2021
Shortages and rise in energy prices probably boosted US CPI inflation in September (Wed.) China’s producer price inflation may have hit an all-time high last month (Thu.) We think US retail sales were dragged down by a plunge in auto sales in September …
8th October 2021
We forecast that the valuation of the US stock market will deflate a bit further over the next couple of years, though we are not expecting a sharp decline . To recap, the valuation of the S&P 500, as measured by its blended 12-month forward …
We think the prices of most commodities will fall over the next couple of years, and that this will prove to be a headwind for many countries’ stock markets. But the strength of that headwind will vary significantly, in our view, even among the most …
7th October 2021
We expect a 50bp rate hike from Peru’s central bank (00.00 BST) Inflation in Brazil probably rose again in September (13.00 BST) US non-farm payrolls likely to have increased by around 500,000 last month (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes Emerging market (EM) …
We expect the yields of 10-year emerging market (EM) local-currency (LC) government bonds to rise over the coming years. But, in most EMs, we think yields will rise by less than the 10-year US Treasury yield. While EM LC government bond yields have …
6th October 2021
We expect the RBNZ to hike rates by 25bp, after delaying in August (02.00 BST) We think euro-zone retail sales will remain unchanged (10.00 BST) We expect Poland’s central bank to keep rates on hold despite rising inflation Key Market Themes The longer …
5th October 2021
RBA likely to keep its policy settings unchanged (04.30 BST) Romania’s central bank may lay the foundations for a rate hike next month US ISM services index probably fell again in September (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes Even if concerns about potential …
4th October 2021
RBNZ likely to hike its policy rate by 25bp (Wednesday) Germany’s industrial production probably faltered in August (Thursday) We think that US non-farm payrolls rose by around 500,000 last month (Friday) Key Market Themes We think that three recent …
1st October 2021
We think euro-zone inflation picked up this month to its highest level since 2008 (10.00 BST) US real consumption probably rose slightly in August... (13.30 BST) ... but supply shortages may have weighed on the ISM index in September (15.00 BST) Key …
30th September 2021
While financials and real estate have been among the worst-performing sectors in the MSCI China Index this year we think that there may be scope for them, as well as the energy sector, to outperform the materials and health care sectors and “technology” …
29th September 2021
We think industrial production in Japan increased last month (00.50 BST) China’s PMI data will probably point to further loss of momentum in September (02.00 BST) Central banks in Czechia, Mexico, and Colombia likely to hike rates Key Market Themes …
We doubt ‘tapering’ of the Fed’s asset purchases over the next year or so would weigh heavily on the US stock market, and forecast that it will make small gains over the next couple of years. At last week’s FOMC meeting, Fed officials gave, among other …
Speeches from Fed officials could give details on what drove hawkish shift in rate projections Australia’s retail sales probably fell by around 2.5% m/m in August (02.30 BST) Read our new CE Spotlight series for an in-depth look at the global inflation …
27th September 2021
US House of Representatives may vote on bipartisan infrastructure bill Lengthy coalition negotiations likely to follow German elections (Sunday) We think the US ISM manufacturing index dropped back in September (Friday) Key Market Themes We expect the …
24th September 2021
We expect Germany’s Ifo index to have declined again in September (09.00 BST) Brazil’s inflation probably rose to around 10% in the first half of September (13.00 BST) Read our latest reports on Evergrande’s collapse and its macro & market implications …
23rd September 2021
Even if the current concerns around Evergrande abate, we think China’s stock market will continue to underperform many of those elsewhere over the next couple of years. Worries about Evergrande have continued to weigh on stock markets in China and …
22nd September 2021
