Filtered by Subscriptions: Bonds & Equities Use setting Bonds & Equities
We don’t expect ongoing tightening by the Federal Reserve will see the valuations of emerging market (EM) equities or bonds plunge, even if they are unlikely to rebound much either. Sharp rises in bond yields in developed markets this year – amid …
21st April 2022
Final HICP print should shed some more light on drivers of eurozone inflation (10.00 BST) Fed Chair Jerome Powell may strike hawkish tone at IMF discussion panel tomorrow Clients can sign up for tomorrow’s drop-in on France’s presidential election here …
20th April 2022
We expect a small cut in China’s Loan Prime Rate (02.15 BST) Canada’s inflation may have reached a fresh multi-decade high last month (13.30 BST) Sign up for our Drop-In on the potential consequences of France’s election here Key Market Themes Growing …
19th April 2022
Chinese activity data will reveal a sharp slowdown in March … (Mon.) … which reinforces our view that the PBOC will cut the Loan Prime Rate (Wed.) Register for our Drop-In on the key implications of the French election here Key Market Themes While the ECB …
14th April 2022
An analysis of the behaviour of the yield of 10-year US Treasuries during the eight major Fed tightening cycles since the 1970s suggests to us that the current sell-off in long-dated US government bonds may have further to run if the Fed hikes rates by a …
We expect Korea’s central bank to hike its policy rate by 25bp (02.00 BST) Australia’s unemployment rate may have fallen to a multi-decade low in March (02.30 BST) We think the ECB will leave policy unchanged tomorrow (12.45 BST) Key Market Themes While …
13th April 2022
We expect an above-consensus 50bp rate hike in New Zealand (03.00 BST) UK inflation probably rose even further last month (07.00 BST) Canada’s central bank may also raise rates by 50bp (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes While we think US inflation peaked in …
12th April 2022
We suspect the sectors of the equity market where valuations are the lowest will continue to weather the storm of rising bond yields a bit better than others. We highlighted in our previous DM Valuations Monitor how rising bond yields were taking a toll …
We think the UK unemployment rate remained at 3.9% in February (07.00 BST) We forecast US CPI inflation reached a new high of 8.4% in March (13.30 BST) Sign-up for our Drop-In on global inflation here Key Market Themes Even if the US earnings season – …
11th April 2022
US CPI inflation looks set to have hit a new high in March, but this could be the peak (Tue.) We expect rate hikes in Canada, Korea, New Zealand and Israel next week... ... but think China’s central bank may announce an unscheduled rate cut Key Market …
8th April 2022
Earnings expectations for listed euro-zone companies look, as a whole, a bit optimistic to us given the economic impact of the Russia-Ukraine war and Western sanctions. This feeds into our view that the region’s benchmark equity indices will, in general, …
While the prospect of a euro-zone break-up looks more remote than during the 2017 French presidential campaign, the possibility of Marine Le Pen taking power is still a major risk to euro-zone financial markets. As we discussed here and here , the recent …
7th April 2022
We expect India’s central bank to leave rates on hold for now (05.30 BST) We think CPI inflation rose slightly in Brazil and Chile last month... ... while it may have reached nearly 20% in Russia (17.00 BST) Key Market Themes While the gold price has been …
Euro-zone retail sales probably rose slightly in February (10.00 BST) We think Mexico’s inflation rose further in March, paving the way for a rate hike (12.00 BST) Canada’s federal budget may unveil a small increase in spending Key Market Themes We think …
6th April 2022
FOMC minutes may provide a clearer steer on plans for balance sheet reduction (19.00 BST) We expect Poland’s central bank to hike its policy rate by 75bp Sign up for our Drop-In on the global inflation outlook here Key Market Themes The recent polling …
5th April 2022
This tightening cycle looks set to be much more synchronised across developed market economies than the last one, which we think creates more scope for rises in bond yields across countries but could limit any further flattening of the US yield curve. …
We expect Australia’s central bank to keep its policy rate at 0.1% (05.30 BST) The US trade deficit is likely to have narrowed in February... (13.30 BST) ...while the ISM services index may have rebounded in March (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes Although …
4th April 2022
While we suspect the recent recovery in the MSCI China Index may have further to run, we don’t think the stage is set for a big rally either . After falling sharply at the beginning of the year, China’s stock market appears to have turned a corner in …
1st April 2022
FOMC minutes may shed more light on the Fed’s plans to shrink its balance sheet (Wednesday) We think the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep its policy settings unchanged… (Tuesday) …whereas central banks in Poland, Romania and Peru will probably hike …
Euro-zone inflation probably rose to around 7.5% in March (10.00 BST) We anticipate a headline rise in US payrolls of 450,000… (13.30 BST) …and expect the ISM manufacturing index to have rebounded (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes We think China ’s stock …
31st March 2022
China’s official manufacturing PMI may have fallen below 50 this month (02.30 BST) We think euro-zone unemployment declined to a record low in February (09.30 BST) Clients can now view our US Recession Trackers here Key Market Themes While the sell-off in …
30th March 2022
As a result of the Russia-Ukraine war and the Fed’s hawkish pivot, we have tweaked our forecasts for most major emerging market (EM) assets. The big picture, though, is that we still think EM equities will generally make small gains over the remainder of …
The Bank of Thailand will probably stand pat, despite higher inflation (08.00 BST) We suspect business confidence in the euro-zone has fallen sharply this month (10.00 BST) Sign-up for our Drop-In on how the war is affecting the euro-zone economy here Key …
29th March 2022
We think retail sales in Australia rebounded strongly in February (01.30 BST) Consumer confidence in the US probably fell further this month (15.00 BST) We expect Chile’s central bank to deliver another 150bp rate hike (22.00 BST) Key Market Themes Even …
28th March 2022
While we think that the war in Ukraine and Fed tightening will weigh on US corporate earnings, we still expect those earnings to grow in the next two years or so. This underpins our view that US equities will make some further small gains over that time . …
Virus restrictions probably caused China’s PMIs to drop back in March (Thursday) We suspect that US non-farm payrolls rose by 450,000 this month (Friday) Headline inflation in the euro-zone may have picked up to 6.7% in March (Friday) Key Market Themes …
25th March 2022
We think Mexico’s central bank will hike its policy rate by 75bp (19.00 GMT) The rising cost of living probably weighed on UK retail sales in February (07.00 GMT) Clients can view our new China Activity Proxy dashboard here Key Market Themes While not our …
24th March 2022
The reinvestment of oil revenues into US markets probably helped avert a rout in Treasuries during the mid-2000s hiking cycle, but even with oil prices on the rise again we don’t expect so-called “petrodollars” to halt the current slide in Treasuries. …
We expect Norway’s central bank to raise its policy rate by 25bp… (09.00 GMT) …and anticipate a 75bp hike from Mexico’s central bank (19.00 GMT) Clients can view our new China Activity Proxy dashboard here Key Market Themes The yield of 10-year Gilts …
23rd March 2022
The war in Ukraine, as well as the hawkish tone adopted by some developed market (DM) central banks, have led us to revise up our end-22 and end-23 forecasts for government bond yields in some DMs and to lower our projections for DM equities generally . …
Hopes for a large support package from UK Chancellor Sunak may be disappointed… …even though inflation in the UK probably reached a 30-year high last month (07.00 GMT) Sign up for our Drop-In on the impact of war in Ukraine on commodity markets here Key …
22nd March 2022
We expect Hungary’s central bank to raise its base rate by 75bp (13.00 GMT) Read our latest research on the macro and market impacts of the war in Ukraine here Clients can view our new Oil Market Monitor dashboard here Key Market Themes The post-FOMC …
21st March 2022
Flash PMIs for March to give first steer on how the war in Ukraine has impacted DM economies UK chancellor may announce a small support package for households in the spring statement We expect Mexico’s central bank to raise its policy rate by 75bp on …
18th March 2022
We think the war in Ukraine and a more hawkish Fed will cause the yield of 10-year US Treasuries and the US dollar generally to end 2022 and 2023 a bit higher than we had previously anticipated. We now also expect DM equities to be a bit lower by the end …
Bank of Japan may push back against speculation about policy tightening We suspect that Russia’s central bank will stand pat (10.30 GMT) Strong growth in Q4 may be as good as it gets for Chile’s economy (11.30 GMT) Key Market Themes The pound gave back …
17th March 2022
We think the Fed’s tightening cycle will lead to the 10-year Treasury yield ending this year and next a bit higher than we had previously anticipated, although we still expect it to rise only gradually. The Fed has started its tightening cycle in a …
The Fed is widely expected to begin its tightening cycle (18.00 GMT) We think the BoE will continue its own hiking cycle with another 25bp rate rise (12.00 GMT) US industrial production data may show output rose fairly strongly in February (13.15 GMT) Key …
16th March 2022
Some of the effects of the war on markets have begun to unwind in recent days, but we think a few of the changes it has brought about will last even if the mood in markets continues to improve. While the situation remains volatile, at the time of writing …
We think that US retail sales rebounded in February (12.30 GMT) The Fed is widely expected to deliver its first rate hike of this cycle (18.00 GMT) Brazil’s central bank may hike its policy rate by another 100bp (21.30 GMT) Key Market Themes With several …
15th March 2022
We expect the PBOC to cut its Medium-term Lending Facility Rate by 10bp We think unemployment in the UK continued to edge lower in January (07.00 GMT) Producer price inflation in the US probably remained elevated last month (12.30 GMT) Key Market Themes …
14th March 2022
We expect the Fed and the BoE to raise their policy rates by 25bp… (Wed. & Thu.) … and Brazil’s central bank to hike interest rates by 100bp, to 11.75% (Wed.) In contrast, policymakers in Japan, Russia and Turkey will probably leave rates unchanged Key …
11th March 2022
Although a gap between euro-zone corporate and peripheral sovereign spreads opened up after the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, it has begun to close recently and we think that it will shrink further . The spreads between the yields of long-dated …
The war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russian oil trade have increased oil prices by as much as 40% so far this year, but we don’t think higher energy costs will derail the US stock market as they might have at times in the past. Oil prices have surged in …
We think UK GDP will have reversed all of December’s drop in January (07.00 GMT) Higher oil prices probably weighed on US consumer confidence this month (15.00 GMT) Clients can view our new Oil Market Monitor dashboard here Key Market Themes While the ECB …
10th March 2022
We estimate that US headline inflation reached 7.7% last month (13.30 GMT) Lagarde will probably try to strike a reassuring tone after tomorrow’s ECB meeting Korea’s presidential election too close to call ahead of final results tomorrow morning Key …
9th March 2022
The US stock market has so far held up fairly well despite the Russia-Ukraine war. We think it will probably manage to make small gains over the rest of the year, although there are clear downside risks. The Russia-Ukraine war has sent tremors through …
Consumer price inflation in China probably remained subdued last month (01.30 GMT) … … while we think headline inflation in Mexico rose to almost 8% (12.00 GMT) Clients can view our new Oil Market Monitor dashboard here Key Market Themes We doubt that …
8th March 2022
We expect a 50bp rate hike in Poland, but there is a risk of a larger increase Clients can view our new Oil Market Monitor dashboard here Read our latest research on the economic impact of the war in Ukraine here Key Market Themes History suggests that …
7th March 2022
China’s FX reserves data may reveal PBOC intervention (Mon.) We think the Russia-Ukraine war will mean the ECB delays its plans to normalise policy (Thu.) Core consumer prices in the US may have risen by less in February than January (Thu.) Key Market …
4th March 2022
This Update discusses three ways in which the outbreak of war in Ukraine has called into question our asset allocation views. While the situation is fluid and the outlook especially uncertain, it also provides our initial thoughts on how things might play …
