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We expect the Bank of Japan to leave policy unchanged Russia’s central bank may cut its policy rate by another 50bp… (11.30 BST) …while we expect a 100bp rate hike in Colombia (19.00 BST) Key Market Themes Despite some dovish elements in today’s ECB …
27th October 2022
We expect another big hike from the ECB on Thursday (13.15 BST) We think US GDP rebounded in the third quarter (13.30 BST) Sign up for our Asia Drop-In on China’s Congress, yen weakness and more Key Market Themes The rebound across major bond , equity , …
26th October 2022
As the recent breakdown of the UK Gilt market illustrates, policymakers face an increasingly difficult trade-off between combating inflation, supporting economic growth and maintaining financial stability. With core bond and currency markets facing very …
We think CPI inflation in Australia accelerated to 7.2% in Q3 (01.30 BST) We expect another 75bp rate hike from the Bank of Canada (15.00 BST) But Brazil’s central bank is likely to leave its policy rate on hold (22.30 BST) Key Market Themes Recent …
25th October 2022
German Ifo may point towards a deep recession (09.00 BST) We expect Hungary’s central bank to leave its main policy rate on hold (13.00 BST) Clients can sign up here for a Drop-In on the outlook for the euro-zone (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes Given all …
24th October 2022
We don’t think the valuations of emerging market (EM) equities will continue to hold up better than those in developed markets (DMs) if, as we expect, the global economy slips into recession. The valuations of emerging market equities – as measured by …
21st October 2022
We think the ECB will raise its policy rate by 100bp… (Thu.) …and we expect large rate hikes in Canada and Colombia too But we think policymakers in Brazil, Hungary, and Japan will leave rates on hold Key Market Themes China’s stock markets have fallen …
We expect to see a fall in retail sales volumes in the UK in September… (07.00 BST) … and a rise in Poland over the same period… (09.00 BST) … but we think retail sales values were broadly unchanged in Canada in August. (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes UK …
20th October 2022
Although the extra risk premia on the UK’s sovereign bonds and currency that emerged in the wake of the UK’s “mini”-budget have partly unwound, this doesn’t necessarily mean Gilts and sterling are set to return to where they were before Liz Truss’s …
China’s central bank will probably keep its Loan Prime Rate unchanged… (02.15 BST) …but we think Indonesia’s will hike by 50 bp (08.20 BST) We expect Turkey’s central bank to cut interest rates by 50 bp (12.00 BST) Key Market Themes Although corporate …
19th October 2022
UK headline inflation may have surpassed 10% in September… (07.00 BST) … but CPI inflation in Canada probably dropped back (13.30 BST) We think US housing starts slumped last month (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes The yen ’s latest weakness has pushed its …
18th October 2022
While the latest change of plans by the UK government takes, in our view, a lot of the upside risk out of Gilt yields, we suspect stubborn risk premia remain that may take some time to fade completely. The latest U-turn in UK fiscal policy seems to have …
Germany’s ZEW indicator probably plunged again in October (10.00 BST) US industrial production appears to be flatlining (14.15 BST) Sign up here for our final CE Spotlight Drop-In to discuss commodities and green transitions Key Market Themes While …
17th October 2022
We think industrial production in the US flatlined in September (Tue.) UK CPI inflation probably rose above 10% last month... (Wed.) ...but inflation probably edged lower in Japan (Fri.) Key Market Themes We think that we could see a small boost for …
14th October 2022
We think benchmark equity indices in Taiwan, Korea and India will fall a bit further over the remainder of this year and into 2023, as the global economy slips into a recession. Although they have generally fallen alongside global equity markets this …
Despite the hot September US CPI print from yesterday, we still expect Treasury yields to drop back over time. And we think the drop will mostly be driven by falls in the real yield, rather than inflation compensation. Our US Economics Service is the …
We think China’s PBOC will keep its policy rate on hold… (02.20 BST) …with CPI exceeding the PBOC’s target for the first time since 2020 (02.30 BST) Rewatch today’s Drop-in on the latest US CPI figures and the US economic outlook here Key Market Themes …
13th October 2022
Chile’s central bank is likely to hike by 50bp later today (22.00 BST) We think consumer price inflation in Sweden climbed higher in September… (07.00 BST) … but headline CPI probably eased in the US last month (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes A generous …
12th October 2022
Central banks have the tools to deal with liquidity crises arising from rising interest rates and falling asset prices. Instead, the bigger threat is that higher interest rates produce large and simultaneous falls in asset prices that threaten the …
11th October 2022
September FOMC minutes may shed light on where rates will peak (19.00 BST) We expect central banks in Korea and Chile to hike interest rates Clients can sign up here for tomorrow’s Drop-in previewing China’s Party Congress Key Market Themes While the …
Note: This report has been updated in the 6th paragraph to reflect 11th Oct. comments from BoE Governor Andrew Bailey. Given that the surge in gilt yields that has forced the Bank of England to intervene in the market was initially driven by the …
We think the UK labour market loosened a bit in August (07.00 BST) Headline inflation in Brazil probably fell further in September (12.00 BST) US small business survey is likely to show the labour market cooled last month (16.00 BST) Key Market Themes …
10th October 2022
We think the September US CPI report will provide better news for the Fed (Wed.) Central banks in Chile and Korea likely to hike rates next week (Wed.) Clients can register here for a special series of Drop-Ins on our Spotlight 2022 report Key Market …
7th October 2022
With the Fed seemingly still in a hawkish mood and the US and global economies struggling, we now expect the S&P 500 to decline further than we’d previously thought. Much of the volatility in the S&P 500 lately seems to be due to shifts in expectations …
China’s September FX reserves data may show signs of currency intervention We think US non-farm payrolls rose by 275,000 last month (13.30 BST) Check out our major new project, The Fracturing of the Global Economy , here Key Market Themes Although the …
6th October 2022
We think euro-zone retail sales fell by 0.5% m/m in August (10.00 BST) Peru’s central bank is likely to hike by 25bp on Thursday (00.00 BST) Sign up here for our Drop-In on Thursday to discuss the risks to EMs from a stronger dollar Key Market …
5th October 2022
With monetary tightening cycles approaching their ends in many emerging markets (EMs), we think local-currency (LC) sovereign bond yields will, in general, be much lower in a couple of years than they are now. But we anticipate a significant amount …
4th October 2022
Italy’s composite PMI probably fell in September below the 50 “no change” mark (08.45 BST) We think the US trade deficit fell sharply in August, as exports continued to surge (13.30 BST) We expect Romania’s and Poland’s central banks to hike their …
Manufacturing PMI for Korea may shed light on the state of global trade (01.30 BST) We expect the RBA to hike by 50bp (04.30 BST) We doubt US JOLTS data will show much of a rebound in labour market slack (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes Even though recent …
3rd October 2022
What Lula could mean for Brazil’s financial markets Investors seem to have taken the prospect of a second Lula presidency positively so far, but we suspect returns from the country’s dollar bonds and equities will disappoint over the next couple of years. …
Euro-zone September final PMIs may signal further weakness (Wed.) We think US non-farm payrolls rose by a further 275,000 in September (Fri.) We expect rate hikes in Australia, New Zealand, Israel, Peru and Romania Key Market Themes Investors have so far …
30th September 2022
China’s manufacturing PMI may have weakened further this month (02.30 BST) We think India’s central bank will raise its policy rate by another 50bp (04.30 BST) US PCE inflation probably dropped in August due to lower energy prices (13.30 BST) Key Market …
29th September 2022
While the Bank of England’s temporary U-turn on its balance sheet has caused Gilts to rally strongly, we suspect their yields will remain high for some time yet. The Bank of England dramatically intervened in the Gilt market on Wednesday in response …
European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicator may have fallen this month (10.00 BST) US GDP data may partly revise away Q1 decline (13.30 BST) We expect rate hikes in Mexico, Colombia, and Thailand Key Market Themes The plunge in the stock …
28th September 2022
With developed market (DM) central banks clearly in hawkish moods, we have revised up our forecasts for the yields of most 10-year DM government bonds. We no longer expect these yields, in general, to fall much over the remainder of this year. But we …
Although the latest sell-off in Gilts has been driven in part by expectations for higher interest rates, the accompanying fall in sterling suggests the risk premia attached to UK assets has risen. In our view, in the absence of a concerted attempt to …
27th September 2022
We expect an above-consensus 50bp rate hike in Thailand (08.00 BST) Sign up here for our Drop-In on Wednesday to discuss the Brazilian election Click here to watch a replay of Tuesday’s Drop-In discussion on recent moves in FX markets Key Market …
We think US durable goods orders fell in August (13.30 BST) Hungary’s central bank will probably raise its benchmark rate by 100 bp (12.00 BST) Sign up here for our Drop-In on Tuesday to discuss recent moves in FX markets Key Market Themes Italy’s …
26th September 2022
We expect rate hikes in Mexico, Colombia, Thailand, Hungary and Nigeria next week US real personal consumption probably changed little in August (Thu.) We think euro-zone CPI inflation rose further last month (Fri.) Key Market Themes We think …
23rd September 2022
With the Fed still clearly in a hawkish mood, we have revised up our forecasts for the 10-year Treasury yield. We now expect it to be around its current level at the end of this year, in contrast with our previous forecast of a decline. But we still …
With Italy’s general election scheduled to take place this weekend, this Update answers six key questions about what to expect in the days and months following the vote. 1. When will we know the election results? The first exit polls will be released …
22nd September 2022
We think retail sales fell sharply in Canada in July (13.30 BST) Flash PMIs in the UK and Europe are likely to show activity slowing further in September Sign up here for our Drop-In on Tuesday to discuss recent moves in FX markets Key Market Themes We …
We think the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 75bps... (19.00 BST) ...and the Bank of England to hike by 50bps (12.00 BST) We expect the SNB and Norges Bank to continue tightening policy too (08.30 & 09.00 BST) Key Market Themes The extent of the …
21st September 2022
South Africa’s inflation probably eased slightly last month (09.00 BST) We think the Fed will hike by 75bp tomorrow, but still expect rate cuts next year (19.00 BST) Brazil’s central bank may end its tightening cycle with a final 25bp increase (22.30 …
20th September 2022
The outlook for China’s economy has deteriorated recently, but it still doesn’t look like the PBOC will ease policy much in response. We suspect that if the central bank were to have a change of heart, it would be quite disruptive to the country’s …
16th September 2022
We expect the US Federal Reserve to raise rates by 75bp (Wednesday) Flash PMIs will probably suggest the euro-zone economy remained weak in September (Friday) The UK government might announce a further fiscal expansion (Friday) Key Market Themes …
Even more caution than usual should be exercised when using UK overnight indexed swap (OIS) rates to infer the expected path of Bank Rate over the next couple of years. This is because they have risen by far more than the yields of Gilts with comparable …
15th September 2022
We think China’s August activity data will reveal further economic weakness (03.00 BST) Final August euro-zone inflation data may show broadening price pressures (10.00 BST) We expect Russia’s central bank to cut by 50bp (11.30 BST) Key Market Themes …
We think the PBOC will keep its policy rates on hold (02.15 BST) Euro-zone labour costs may show pay pressures building (10.00 BST) Falling gas prices probably dragged down headline US retail sales (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes Although we doubt the …
14th September 2022
Inflation in the UK probably edged higher last month (07.00 BST) We think euro-zone industrial production fell sharply in July (10.00 BST) Clients can see our highest conviction macro calls and their market implications here Key Market Themes Despite the …
13th September 2022
