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We suspect investors are underestimating how disruptive the transition from zero-COVID will prove for China, which could threaten some of the recent rises in the country’s equity prices, bond yields and currency. But once that disruption has begun to …
14th December 2022
We think UK CPI inflation held steady at 11.1% in November (07.00 GMT) Euro-zone industrial production probably fell by about 2% m/m in October (10.00 GMT) We expect the Fed to deliver a 50bp hike and project a higher peak in rates (19.00 GMT) Key …
13th December 2022
We think tightness in the UK labour market eased in October (07.00 GMT) Germany’s ZEW survey may show an improvement in investor sentiment (10.00 GMT) US consumer price inflation probably fell back further in November (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes With …
12th December 2022
Although US corporate bond spreads have been falling since mid-October, we expect them to rise again before long as the global economy slips into recession. The spreads of investment-grade US corporate bonds, as captured by the option-adjusted spread …
We think US consumer price inflation continued to ease last month (Tue.) We expect the Fed to slow the pace of tightening with a 50bp hike (Wed.) Clients can register here for our Drop In for next week’s major central bank decisions (Thu.) Key Market …
9th December 2022
We expect the 10-year Treasury yield to decline only a little further as US inflation continues to ease. Treasury yields have fallen sharply in recent weeks, as investors have revised down their expectations for the path of the federal funds rate . The …
We think price pressures in China cooled further in November… (01.30 GMT) … while a decline in US PPI could foreshadow a similar drop in CPI next week (13.30 GMT) University of Michigan consumer confidence is probably still historically weak (15.00 GMT) …
8th December 2022
We suspect that the S&P 500 will make a new cyclical low by the spring of 2023 as a shallow recession gets underway in the US, before rebounding to end next year higher than it is now. Our forecast is that there will be a mild economic downturn in the US …
We think the Bank of Canada will hike rates by 25bp later today… (15.00 GMT) …but central banks in Brazil and Poland will probably keep rates unchanged Catch-up here on yesterday’s Drop-In on inflation in the US and the Euro-zone Key Market Themes An …
7th December 2022
Germany’s industrial output probably contracted by 0.5% m/m in October (07.00 GMT) We expect China’s exports to have fallen by 5.5% y/y due to cooling global demand We think the Bank of Canada will hike rates by 25bp, while Poland’s central bank stays …
6th December 2022
We think the Reserve Bank of Australia will hike the cash rate by 25bp (03.30 GMT) The US international trade deficit probably widened sharply in October (13.30 GMT) Clients can sign-up here for a Drop In on our inflation outlook for the US and …
5th December 2022
Euro-zone retail sales may have fallen in October (Mon.) We except another hike from central banks in Australia (Tue.), India and Peru… (Wed.) … while banks in Chile (Tue.), Poland and Brazil will probably keep rates unchanged (Wed.) Key Market Themes …
2nd December 2022
If China’s authorities were to accelerate the abandonment of their zero-COVID policies, we think it could actually prove a headwind for global asset prices. But we doubt they will do so for a while yet. The protests in China in recent days have …
We think US non-farm payrolls rose by a more modest 175,000 in November… (13.30 GMT) … while employment growth in Canada probably slowed to 25,000 last month (13.30 GMT) Catch up on our Drop-In discussing EM inflation dynamics here Key Market Themes The …
1st December 2022
Although Chinese stocks have reversed a two year or so downward trend in the past month amid hopes that zero-COVID policies will end, we doubt this is a sign of things to come in the near term. Since its trough on 31 st October, the MSCI China Index has …
Fed’s Powell may push back against recent easing in financial conditions (Wed., 18.30 GMT) We think US manufacturing ISM may have slipped below 50 in November (Thu., 15.00 GMT) We will be hosting Drop-Ins on UK house prices and EM policy rates tomorrow …
30th November 2022
Turkey’s GDP growth probably slowed in the third quarter (07.00) We think euro-zone inflation declined in October (10.00 GMT) Thailand’s central bank is likely to hike by 25bp (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes Although Bund yields have fallen today amid …
29th November 2022
The Euro-zone’s Economic Sentiment Index is likely to have remained very weak (10.00 GMT) We think Germany’s HICP inflation stayed at 11.6% in November (13.00 GMT) Canada’s GDP growth probably slowed to 1.6% annualised in the third quarter (13.30 GMT) …
28th November 2022
Euro-zone inflation may have risen again this month (Wed.) November’s US ISM manufacturing survey probably dropped below 50 (Thu.) We think US non-farm payrolls rose by a more modest 175,000 in November (Fri.) Key Market Themes Chinese equities have …
25th November 2022
Most developed market (DM) government bonds and equity benchmarks have rallied over the past month or so, but we doubt this twin rally will persist. While we think bond yields will end 2023 lower than they are now as inflationary pressures ease, we expect …
A fall in Tokyo’s inflation might suggest that Japan’s national inflation has peaked (Thu.) Catch up on today’s Asia Macro Drop-In, and all our Drop-Ins, here … …or check out our Weekly Briefing podcast episodes here Key Market Themes Despite the …
24th November 2022
We expect central banks in Korea, Sweden and South Africa to hike policy rates… …but think Turkey’s central bank will cut rates, and that a RRR cut is imminent in China Client can sign up here for our Drop-In on Asia’s big macro and market stories …
23rd November 2022
Reserve Bank of New Zealand will probably hike by 75bp on Wednesday (01.00 GMT) We think South Africa’s inflation softened in October (08.00 GMT) We expect UK Flash PMIs to show further weakness in November (09.30 GMT) Key Market Themes Supply …
22nd November 2022
We expect Nigeria’s central bank to hike by 100bp to 16.5%… …but Hungary’s central bank is likely to keep policy settings unchanged (13.00 GMT) We think retail sales in Canada fell by 1.0% m/m in September (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes The …
21st November 2022
Although we think the yields of high-grade, long-dated government bonds will fall in general in the next couple of years, we expect those of Bunds to fall by less than those of Treasuries, as comparatively sticky inflation in the euro-zone keeps monetary …
We expect 75bp rate hikes from central banks in New Zealand, Sweden and South Africa We think flash PMI data for November will show that activity contracted in the UK… (Wed.) …as well as in Germany, France and in the euro-zone (Wed.) Key Market Themes …
18th November 2022
Having increased sharply throughout the year, we think that emerging market (EM) local currency sovereign bond yields will probably only increase by a little more in the first half of next year, despite a looming world recession. Yields may then start to …
Japan’s headline inflation probably rose to 3.5% in October (Thu., 23.30 GMT) We think UK retail sales volumes were flat in October (07.00 GMT) We suspect Chile’s GDP contracted by 0.3% q/q in Q3 (11.30 GMT) Key Market Themes The market reaction to …
17th November 2022
We think US housing starts fell in October on the back of rising mortgage rates (15.00 GMT) We expect the central banks of Indonesia and the Philippines to raise rates Clients can sign up here for our Drop-In on the UK Autumn Statement (16.00 GMT) Key …
16th November 2022
Higher utility prices probably pushed UK CPI inflation higher in October (07.00 GMT) We think US retail sales increased by 1.3% last month… (13.30 GMT) … but we expect industrial production to have risen by a more-muted 0.2% (14.15 GMT) Key Market …
15th November 2022
We’re sticking with our view that the equity market rally will go into reverse as the world economy slips into a recession. Equities surged last week, boosted by a soft US CPI print . The ~5.5% gain in the S&P 500 on Thursday, for example, was its largest …
14th November 2022
Activity data likely to show that China’s economy lost momentum last month… (02.00 GMT) …but we expect the PBOC to refrain from cutting its MLF rate tomorrow We think tightness in the UK labour market eased in September (07.00 GMT) Key Market Themes …
We think economic activity was weak in China in October, but probably held up in the US We expect central banks in the Philippines and Indonesia to hike rates (Thu.) Clients can sign up here for our Drop-In on the UK Autumn Statement (Thu.) Key Market …
11th November 2022
We don’t expect the 10-year JGB yield to rise above the top of the Bank of Japan’s tolerance band, and think it may even fall back to the middle of that band next year as yields continue to decline elsewhere. Yields fell sharply around the world, and the …
China’s equities have received a boost recently from speculation that the country will ease its strict zero-COVID policy, but we don’t think this marks the start of a more sustained rally; we forecast benchmark Chinese equity indices to fall over the next …
10th November 2022
We think Malaysia’s GDP growth slowed sharply in Q3… (04.00 GMT) … and the UK economy contracted, marking the start of a recession (07.00 GMT) Consumer sentiment in the US probably remained low in early November (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes US …
We think US consumer price inflation fell back in October (13.30 GMT) Mexico’s central bank is likely to deliver another 75bp hike… (19.00 GMT) … but we expect policymakers in Peru to keep interest rates on hold (23.00 GMT) Key Market Themes The …
9th November 2022
We think CPI inflation eased in China in October … (01.30 GMT) …but remained well above the central bank’s target in Mexico (12.00 GMT) We expect Poland’s central bank to announce a 25bp hike Key Market Themes Although US “big-tech” stocks have had a …
8th November 2022
Brazil’s financial markets have been some of the world’s best performers lately, supported in part by the prospect of centrist policymaking by incoming president Lula. With the presidential election now complete, and Lula set to be inaugurated soon, a …
We think euro-zone retail sales increased by 0.8% m/m in September (10.00 GMT) Romania’s central bank is likely to hike by 50bp (13.00 GMT) Register here for a Drop-In to discuss the key takeaways from our Global Economic Outlook Key Market Themes The …
7th November 2022
Germany’s industrial production probably slumped in September (Mon.) We think annual US core CPI inflation fell in October (Thu.) We expect rate hikes in Mexico, Poland and Romania Key Market Themes While we still think a sustained fall in Treasury …
4th November 2022
Chief Markets Economist John Higgins held a discussion with economists from across our Markets team shortly after the release of our Q4 Outlooks. During this briefing, John and the team answered client questions and highlighted key takeaways from their …
The differing tones of the Fed, ECB and BoE at their recent meetings have seen yields rise in the US more than elsewhere and reignited the rally in the US dollar. That pattern could last a few more months. But we expect falling inflation in the US to mean …
3rd November 2022
Composite PMIs for Italy and Spain probably fell further in October (09.00 GMT) We think US non-farm payrolls rose by 225,000 in October (12.30 GMT) Sign-up to our Global Economics Drop-In on the upcoming recession Key Market Themes We’re inclined to …
Downward revisions to expectations for earnings have taken a toll in the second half of this year so far on the S&P 500, which had been under pressure in the first half from a discount-rate-driven drop in its valuation. We suspect expectations for …
2nd November 2022
We think the Fed will deliver another 75bp hike today (18.00 GMT) Norway’s central bank will probably hike by 50bp on Thursday... (09.00 GMT) …and we expect the Bank of England to raise its policy rate by 100bp (12.00 GMT) Key Market Themes We think an …
We expect the Fed to deliver a fourth 75bp rate hike, before slowing down (18.00 GMT) Sign up for our UK Drop-In looking ahead to the Bank of England’s policy meeting … … and for our Climate Drop-In on the forces that will drive the green transition Key …
1st November 2022
We expect the RBA to hike by 25bp (03.30 BST) We expect the ISM manufacturing index for October to have fallen below 50 (14.00 BST) Clients can sign up here for our Drop-In on US real estate (16.00 BST) Key Market Themes We suspect investors are a bit …
31st October 2022
We think the Fed will raise rates by 75bp next week…(Wed.) …while the Bank of England may hike by 100bp (Thu.) We expect a smaller gain in US non-farm payrolls in October (Fri.) Key Market Themes We don’t think growth stocks ’ relative struggles are …
28th October 2022
We think the recent rallies in government bond markets will gain steam next year as inflationary pressures ease and central banks, especially the Fed, turn less hawkish. But, while rising real yields have probably been the biggest headwind for “risky” …
