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September FOMC minutes may shed light on where rates will peak (19.00 BST) We expect central banks in Korea and Chile to hike interest rates Clients can sign up here for tomorrow’s Drop-in previewing China’s Party Congress Key Market Themes While the …
11th October 2022
Note: This report has been updated in the 6th paragraph to reflect 11th Oct. comments from BoE Governor Andrew Bailey. Given that the surge in gilt yields that has forced the Bank of England to intervene in the market was initially driven by the …
We think the UK labour market loosened a bit in August (07.00 BST) Headline inflation in Brazil probably fell further in September (12.00 BST) US small business survey is likely to show the labour market cooled last month (16.00 BST) Key Market Themes …
10th October 2022
We think the September US CPI report will provide better news for the Fed (Wed.) Central banks in Chile and Korea likely to hike rates next week (Wed.) Clients can register here for a special series of Drop-Ins on our Spotlight 2022 report Key Market …
7th October 2022
With the Fed seemingly still in a hawkish mood and the US and global economies struggling, we now expect the S&P 500 to decline further than we’d previously thought. Much of the volatility in the S&P 500 lately seems to be due to shifts in expectations …
China’s September FX reserves data may show signs of currency intervention We think US non-farm payrolls rose by 275,000 last month (13.30 BST) Check out our major new project, The Fracturing of the Global Economy , here Key Market Themes Although the …
6th October 2022
We think euro-zone retail sales fell by 0.5% m/m in August (10.00 BST) Peru’s central bank is likely to hike by 25bp on Thursday (00.00 BST) Sign up here for our Drop-In on Thursday to discuss the risks to EMs from a stronger dollar Key Market …
5th October 2022
With monetary tightening cycles approaching their ends in many emerging markets (EMs), we think local-currency (LC) sovereign bond yields will, in general, be much lower in a couple of years than they are now. But we anticipate a significant amount …
4th October 2022
Italy’s composite PMI probably fell in September below the 50 “no change” mark (08.45 BST) We think the US trade deficit fell sharply in August, as exports continued to surge (13.30 BST) We expect Romania’s and Poland’s central banks to hike their …
Manufacturing PMI for Korea may shed light on the state of global trade (01.30 BST) We expect the RBA to hike by 50bp (04.30 BST) We doubt US JOLTS data will show much of a rebound in labour market slack (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes Even though recent …
3rd October 2022
What Lula could mean for Brazil’s financial markets Investors seem to have taken the prospect of a second Lula presidency positively so far, but we suspect returns from the country’s dollar bonds and equities will disappoint over the next couple of years. …
Euro-zone September final PMIs may signal further weakness (Wed.) We think US non-farm payrolls rose by a further 275,000 in September (Fri.) We expect rate hikes in Australia, New Zealand, Israel, Peru and Romania Key Market Themes Investors have so far …
30th September 2022
China’s manufacturing PMI may have weakened further this month (02.30 BST) We think India’s central bank will raise its policy rate by another 50bp (04.30 BST) US PCE inflation probably dropped in August due to lower energy prices (13.30 BST) Key Market …
29th September 2022
While the Bank of England’s temporary U-turn on its balance sheet has caused Gilts to rally strongly, we suspect their yields will remain high for some time yet. The Bank of England dramatically intervened in the Gilt market on Wednesday in response …
European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicator may have fallen this month (10.00 BST) US GDP data may partly revise away Q1 decline (13.30 BST) We expect rate hikes in Mexico, Colombia, and Thailand Key Market Themes The plunge in the stock …
28th September 2022
With developed market (DM) central banks clearly in hawkish moods, we have revised up our forecasts for the yields of most 10-year DM government bonds. We no longer expect these yields, in general, to fall much over the remainder of this year. But we …
Although the latest sell-off in Gilts has been driven in part by expectations for higher interest rates, the accompanying fall in sterling suggests the risk premia attached to UK assets has risen. In our view, in the absence of a concerted attempt to …
27th September 2022
We expect an above-consensus 50bp rate hike in Thailand (08.00 BST) Sign up here for our Drop-In on Wednesday to discuss the Brazilian election Click here to watch a replay of Tuesday’s Drop-In discussion on recent moves in FX markets Key Market …
We think US durable goods orders fell in August (13.30 BST) Hungary’s central bank will probably raise its benchmark rate by 100 bp (12.00 BST) Sign up here for our Drop-In on Tuesday to discuss recent moves in FX markets Key Market Themes Italy’s …
26th September 2022
We expect rate hikes in Mexico, Colombia, Thailand, Hungary and Nigeria next week US real personal consumption probably changed little in August (Thu.) We think euro-zone CPI inflation rose further last month (Fri.) Key Market Themes We think …
23rd September 2022
With the Fed still clearly in a hawkish mood, we have revised up our forecasts for the 10-year Treasury yield. We now expect it to be around its current level at the end of this year, in contrast with our previous forecast of a decline. But we still …
With Italy’s general election scheduled to take place this weekend, this Update answers six key questions about what to expect in the days and months following the vote. 1. When will we know the election results? The first exit polls will be released …
22nd September 2022
We think retail sales fell sharply in Canada in July (13.30 BST) Flash PMIs in the UK and Europe are likely to show activity slowing further in September Sign up here for our Drop-In on Tuesday to discuss recent moves in FX markets Key Market Themes We …
We think the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 75bps... (19.00 BST) ...and the Bank of England to hike by 50bps (12.00 BST) We expect the SNB and Norges Bank to continue tightening policy too (08.30 & 09.00 BST) Key Market Themes The extent of the …
21st September 2022
South Africa’s inflation probably eased slightly last month (09.00 BST) We think the Fed will hike by 75bp tomorrow, but still expect rate cuts next year (19.00 BST) Brazil’s central bank may end its tightening cycle with a final 25bp increase (22.30 …
20th September 2022
The outlook for China’s economy has deteriorated recently, but it still doesn’t look like the PBOC will ease policy much in response. We suspect that if the central bank were to have a change of heart, it would be quite disruptive to the country’s …
16th September 2022
We expect the US Federal Reserve to raise rates by 75bp (Wednesday) Flash PMIs will probably suggest the euro-zone economy remained weak in September (Friday) The UK government might announce a further fiscal expansion (Friday) Key Market Themes …
Even more caution than usual should be exercised when using UK overnight indexed swap (OIS) rates to infer the expected path of Bank Rate over the next couple of years. This is because they have risen by far more than the yields of Gilts with comparable …
15th September 2022
We think China’s August activity data will reveal further economic weakness (03.00 BST) Final August euro-zone inflation data may show broadening price pressures (10.00 BST) We expect Russia’s central bank to cut by 50bp (11.30 BST) Key Market Themes …
We think the PBOC will keep its policy rates on hold (02.15 BST) Euro-zone labour costs may show pay pressures building (10.00 BST) Falling gas prices probably dragged down headline US retail sales (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes Although we doubt the …
14th September 2022
Inflation in the UK probably edged higher last month (07.00 BST) We think euro-zone industrial production fell sharply in July (10.00 BST) Clients can see our highest conviction macro calls and their market implications here Key Market Themes Despite the …
13th September 2022
We suspect UK labour demand dropped back a bit in July (07.00 BST) We think the German ZEW economic sentiment indicator fell again in September (10.00 BST) Inflation in the US probably edged lower last month (13.00 BST) Key Market Themes US inflation …
12th September 2022
We think UK GDP rebounded in July but recession looms (Mon.) US headline inflation probably fell further in August (Tue.) The PBOC will probably leave the MLF rate unchanged again this month (Thu.) Key Market Themes We suspect the positive correlation …
9th September 2022
Notwithstanding the big policy announcements in the UK this week, we still think that the pound and the UK stock market will struggle over the rest of this year, but expect 10-year Gilts to rally. We set out what we think the “Energy Price Guarantee” …
Despite the rise in volatility lately, compensation for risk across several major asset classes still seems quite low relative to history. That means, in our view, that if volatility were to remain high, it could spark further selloffs across asset …
We think consumer price inflation in China edged lower in August … (02.30 BST) … and inflation data out of Brazil will also show a further fall last month (13.00 BST) Clients can view our latest dashboards and proprietary indicators here Key Market …
8th September 2022
We think a combination of domestic and external factors will push up risk premia in Brazil over the rest of this year. This informs our forecasts that the real will weaken and the country’s bonds will sell off. Brazil’s financial markets appear to have …
We expect the ECB to raise its policy rate by 75bp ... (13.15 BST) ... while Malaysia’s central bank is likely to hike by 25bp (08.00 BST) Inflation in Mexico and Chile probably edged higher in August (11.00 BST) Key Market Themes We think 10-year …
7th September 2022
We expect Chile’s central bank to hike by 75bp… (Tue 21.00 BST) …and we think the Bank of Canada will do likewise (Wed 15.00 BST) Poland’s central bank may end its tightening cycle with a 50bp hike Key Market Themes Even though we expect the RBA to …
6th September 2022
We expect Australia’s central bank to hike by 50bp (04.30 BST) We think the ISM Services Index fell back a bit in August (15.00 BST) Chile’s central bank could raise its policy rate by a further 75bp (21.00 BST) Key Market Themes The indefinite closure of …
5th September 2022
We continue to expect euro-zone “peripheral” spreads to rise over the remainder of the year, owing to a combination of deteriorating appetite for risk, higher policy rates, and ambiguity about the ECB’s willingness to support the peripheral bond market. …
The UK’s next prime minister will be announced on Monday US ISM services survey probably remained at a healthy level last month (Tuesday) We expect interest rate hikes in the euro-zone, Australia, Canada and several major EMs Key Market Themes With …
2nd September 2022
While US and euro-zone 10-year government bond yields have surged over recent weeks, we think this sell-off has mostly run its course – we expect these yields to end this year a bit below their current levels. The yields of 10-year government bonds in the …
We think US non-farm payrolls rose by 350,000 in August… (13.30 BST) … and will be discussing the release in a drop-in tomorrow at 15.00 BST Clients can also sign up for Monday’s drop-in on the UK outlook under the new PM here Key Market Themes We …
1st September 2022
Caixin manufacturing PMI likely to suggest that China’s recovery lost steam (02.45 BST) Euro-zone unemployment rate may have risen for the first time in two years (10.00 BST) US ISM manufacturing survey will probably point to sluggish growth in August …
31st August 2022
We think developed market (DM) monetary policy may be a threat to emerging market (EM) assets for some time yet . Hawkish monetary policy has arguably been the biggest headwind for global financial markets this year. Rapid upward revisions to …
We think official PMIs will show China’s economy continued to lose momentum (02.30 BST) Inflation in the euro-zone probably rose further in August (10.00 BST) Clients can register for our Drop-In about macro risks across emerging markets here Key …
30th August 2022
August euro-zone inflation data likely to reinforce the case for further ECB rate hikes (Wed.) Power shortages likely to mean falls in China’s manufacturing PMIs (Wed. & Thu.) We expect another healthy rise in US non-farm payrolls in August (Fri.) Key …
26th August 2022
The rebound in the prices of “risky” assets has stalled recently and we expect it to go into reverse over the rest of this year as economic growth in many major DMs disappoints and appetite for risk deteriorates. Risky assets generally continued to …
US spending data are likely to show consumption accelerated in July (13.30 BST) Powell’s speech likely to emphasise the need to keep rates high for some time (15.00 BST) We think GDP growth in Nigeria slowed markedly last quarter Key Market Themes …
25th August 2022
