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We think annual US core CPI inflation fell to 6.1% in January… (Tue.) …while CPI inflation in the UK declined to 10.2%, from 10.5% in December (Wed.) We think Q4 GDP growth weakened in Colombia, Hungary, Romania, and Israel Key Market Themes Kazuo Ueda …
10th February 2023
We think stock markets in several commodity-intensive countries will benefit from China’s ongoing reopening, which, in our view, will mean commodity prices rise further by the end of the year. The end of the zero-COVID policy and a renewed focus on …
Some of the moves in China’s financial markets that followed its rapid reopening – including a rise in equity prices, higher bond yields and stronger renminbi – have unwound in the past couple of weeks, but we think they will resume before too long. …
We anticipate interest rate hikes in Mexico and Peru… (Thu.) … but think Russia’s central bank will leave rates on hold (Fri.) UK GDP data likely to show that the economy avoided a recession in 2022 (Fri.) Key Market Themes Shrinking central bank …
9th February 2023
We expect the Riksbank to conclude its tightening cycle with a 50bp hike (08.30 GMT) The central banks of Mexico and Peru are also likely to deliver final 25bp hikes… …while policymakers in Romania will probably keep interest rates on hold Key Market …
8th February 2023
We think sovereign bond yields in Canada, Australia, and New Zealand will drop further by end-2023. The central banks of Canada, Australia, and New Zealand have generally been at the forefront of this tightening cycle in terms of starting to hike rates ( …
We think India’s central bank will deliver a final rate hike, of 25bp, to 6.5%... (04.30 GMT) … but expect policymakers in Poland to keep rates unchanged at 6.75% Inflation in Russia probably rose a bit, to 12%, in January (16.00 GMT) Key Market …
7th February 2023
Germany’s industrial production probably didn’t change much in December (07.00 GMT) We think the trade deficit in the US widened last month… (13.30 GMT) …while Canada’s merchandise trade balance fell back into deficit (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes …
6th February 2023
We think euro-zone retail sales contracted sharply in December (Tuesday) UK Q4 GDP is likely to confirm the economy avoided recession in 2022 (Friday) We expect central banks in Australia, Sweden, India, Mexico and Peru to hike rates next week Key …
3rd February 2023
Despite some better news recently, we still think that advanced economies face a tough couple of quarters, an outturn which does not seem to be fully discounted in financial markets. With this in mind, our view remains that risky assets in general will …
We expect growth in US payrolls in January continued to slow (13.30 GMT) ISM Services Index likely to be consistent with mild US recession (15.00 GMT) We held a Drop-In on the Fed, ECB & BoE today – clients can catch up here Key Market Themes Despite …
2nd February 2023
The Fed will probably deliver a smaller 25bp hike, pushing the FFR to 4.50%-4.75% (Wed.) We think strong recent data will prompt the BoE to raise rates by 50bp, to 4%... (Thu.) …while the ECB will increase its deposit rate by 50bp to 2.5%, as signalled …
1st February 2023
We think the rapid economic recovery in China will lead to further gains in equities in China and other emerging markets (EM) this year. Despite some recent weakness, equities in China have rallied since the end of October, as a shift toward living with …
31st January 2023
We think euro-zone inflation rose slightly in January (10.00 GMT) ISM manufacturing index may have fallen further below 50 in January (15.00 GMT) The Fed is set to hike by 25bp (19.00 GMT) Key Market Themes Although China’s equities have now rallied a …
We think China’s PMIs picked up in January as its COVID wave ebbed (01.30 GMT) Euro-zone GDP probably flatlined in the fourth quarter… (10.00 GMT) …and economic growth may have weakened in Mexico and the Czech Republic Key Market Themes The Fed , ECB …
30th January 2023
Although there has been some good news for risky assets over the past couple of months, we still think they will struggle before long as economic growth disappoints in major advanced economies. The global equity market rally that began at the back end of …
A streak of stronger-than-expected economic data in the euro-zone has given markets there a boost this year. But with much of the good news seemingly already discounted, and, in our view, a still hawkish ECB, we expect rallies in equities and government …
27th January 2023
We expect the Fed to slow the pace of interest rate hikes to 25bp… (Wednesday) …but the ECB and Bank of England are likely to raise rates by 50bp (Thursday) We’ve pencilled in a below-consensus gain of 150,000 in US non-farm payrolls (Friday) Key Market …
We expect Chile's central bank to leave its policy rate on hold at 11.25% (Thu.) Spain’s economy probably stagnated in the fourth quarter of last year (Fri.) We think US real consumption declined in December (Fri.) Key Market Themes “High-beta” …
26th January 2023
We forecast the 10-year Treasury yield to decline between now and the end of the year, as inflation eases further and the Fed transitions to monetary loosening. A key risk to this projection, in our view, is the weak outlook for demand for Treasuries, …
We think the US economy expanded by nearly 2% annualised in Q4... (13.30 GMT) South Africa’s central bank will probably hike by 50bp on Thursday Sign up here for our Drop In on the latest economic and market developments in Asia Key Market Themes …
25th January 2023
We think equities in Japan will come under renewed pressure in local-currency (LC) terms over the coming months, amid an economic slowdown and further strengthening in the yen. So far this week, equities in Japan have generally outperformed equities in …
We expect the Bank of Canada to hike by 25bp… (15.00 GMT) … and clients can register here for our Drop-In following that decision (17.00 GMT) We think rates will be raised by 25bp in Thailand and be left on hold in Sri Lanka Key Market Themes Today's …
24th January 2023
The flash PMI might have edged up in the euro-zone in January… (09.00 GMT) … but we think it fell back in the UK (09.30 GMT) We expect central banks in Hungary and Nigeria to keep interest rates on hold Key Market Themes We don’t think government bond …
23rd January 2023
We expect rate hikes in Canada, Colombia, South Africa and Thailand… …but expect central banks in Hungary and Chile to leave rates on hold US data likely to show that economic momentum faded in December (Thu. & Fri.) Key Market Themes Although the …
20th January 2023
We expect the China’s Loan Prime Rate to remain unchanged (01.30 GMT) Retail sales in the UK probably increased by 2.5% m/m in December… (07.00 GMT) …but in Canada we think that preliminary data will show retail sales declined (13.30 GMT) Key Market …
19th January 2023
Japan’s trade deficit probably widened in December (23.50 GMT) We think the Norges Bank will hike its policy rate by 25bp, to 3.00% (09.00 GMT) US housing starts may have fallen sharply in December (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes The latest signs that …
18th January 2023
We think the Bank of Japan will probably keep policy settings unchanged on Wednesday We expect UK CPI inflation to have fallen from 10.7% to 10.2% in December (07.00 GMT) US retail sales and industrial production data are both likely to be weak (13.30 & …
17th January 2023
We think the yield of 10-year Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) would rise to at least 1% if the Bank of Japan (BoJ) decided to abandon Yield Curve Control (YCC), which could conceivably happen as soon as tomorrow. But we wouldn’t be surprised if it ended …
Activity data is likely to show that China’s economy lost momentum last month (02.00 GMT) We think tightness in the UK labour market eased in November (07.00 GMT) Germany’s ZEW survey will offer first clues about economic sentiment this year (10.00 GMT) …
16th January 2023
BoJ may abandon Yield Curve Control as soon as next week (Wed) We think the PBOC will leave rates on hold next week, buts cuts are coming We anticipate interest rate hikes in Norway, Indonesia and Malaysia Key Market Themes An end to Japan’s Yield Curve …
13th January 2023
We have revised up our forecasts for equities in China, given a brighter outlook for the economy there. We have also increased our China 10-year sovereign bond yield forecast for end-2023, as we think that a faster economic recovery will lead to tighter …
Further big falls in inflation seem now to be discounted in major developed markets, especially the US. That helps to underpin our view that high-grade government bond markets will only rally a little further over the remainder of this year even if, as we …
12th January 2023
The Bank of Korea is likely to implement one final 25bp hike (01.00 GMT) Chinese trade data will probably show falls in both imports and exports in December We think UK GDP fell by 0.3% m/m in November (07.00 GMT) Key Market Themes The latest evidence …
December CPI inflation probably edged down in China despite reopening… (01.30 GMT) … and fell back in the US driven by softer core inflation and lower energy prices (13.30 GMT) Sign up here for our Drop-In on the implications of the US CPI print for …
11th January 2023
We think Australia’s consumer price inflation remained at 6.9% in November (00.30 GMT) Catch up here on today’s Global Macro Drop-In where we discussed our 2023 outlook… …and sign up here for tomorrow’s Financial and Commodity Markets Drop-In Key Market …
10th January 2023
We think Norway’s headline inflation fell sharply in December… (07.00 GMT) … and edged lower in Brazil (18.00 GMT) Sign up for our Drop-In tomorrow on the outlook for the global economy in 2023 Key Market Themes The storming of Brazil’s congress by …
9th January 2023
Credit growth in China probably remained weak at the end of last year We think US CPI inflation fell further in December (Thu.) We expect rate hikes in Korea and Romania next week Key Market Themes While investors seem to have judged that today’s …
6th January 2023
While we think the hawkish ECB poses a near-term threat to euro-zone government bonds, we still expect their yields to be lower, in general, by the end of this year . Having climbed throughout December, developed market government bond yields have …
Euro-zone inflation may have fallen to 9.2% in December (10.00 GMT) We think US non-farm payrolls growth slowed to 160,000 in December (13.30 GMT) The US ISM Services survey will probably point to slowing momentum (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes Despite …
5th January 2023
December FOMC minutes may reveal impact of softer CPI prints on Fed thinking (19.00 GMT) We think the US trade balance narrowed dramatically in November (13.30 GMT) Sign up for our Drop In on the outlook for global inflation here Key Market Themes …
4th January 2023
The US ISM Manufacturing Index may have dipped further in December (15.00 GMT) We expect Poland’s central bank to keep rates on hold on Wednesday Read our key calls for the global economy and financial markets in 2023 here Key Market Themes After …
3rd January 2023
We expect US data to show weak economic momentum in November (13.30 GMT) Clients can read our World In 2023 reports here … …and register for the related Drop-In sessions, in early January, on the same page The next edition of the Capital Daily will be …
22nd December 2022
We think investors are still too optimistic on global growth, and that “risky” assets will struggle over the first half of 2023 as a result. Investors seem increasingly to have come around to our view on inflation over the past couple of months, namely …
We expect Indonesia’s central bank to hike by 25bp tomorrow (07.20 GMT) Turkey’s central bank will probably leave policy on hold (11.00 GMT) We think inflation in Mexico edged down in the first half of December (12.00 GMT) Key Market Themes We doubt the …
21st December 2022
We expect lower global risk appetite, as well as rising country-specific risk premia in some cases, to put upward pressure on the yields of 10-year local-currency (LC) government bonds in emerging markets (EM) in the first half of 2023. But later in the …
The surge in government bond yields around the world in response to today’s decision by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to tweak its policy of Yield Curve Control (YCC) highlights the risks to international markets posed by the country’s huge investment overseas. …
20th December 2022
Headline inflation may have dropped back in Canada in November (13.30 GMT) We expect the Czech central bank to keep interest rates on hold (13.30 GMT) Sign up here for our Drop-In on Wednesday to discuss the BoJ decision Key Market Themes Although …
We expect the PBOC to keep the Loan Prime Rate on hold (01.15 GMT) The BoJ will probably keep its policy settings unchanged… …and we think Hungary’s central bank will do likewise (13:00 GMT) Key Market Themes Investors seem to have priced in a more …
19th December 2022
We expect the BoJ to leave its policy settings unchanged next week… (Tue.) …and we think central banks in Hungary, Czechia and Turkey will do likewise Indonesia’s central bank will probably slow its pace of tightening to 25bp (Thu.) Key Market Themes …
16th December 2022
