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Most developed market (DM) government bonds and equity benchmarks have rallied over the past month or so, but we doubt this twin rally will persist. While we think bond yields will end 2023 lower than they are now as inflationary pressures ease, we expect …
25th November 2022
A fall in Tokyo’s inflation might suggest that Japan’s national inflation has peaked (Thu.) Catch up on today’s Asia Macro Drop-In, and all our Drop-Ins, here … …or check out our Weekly Briefing podcast episodes here Key Market Themes Despite the …
24th November 2022
We expect central banks in Korea, Sweden and South Africa to hike policy rates… …but think Turkey’s central bank will cut rates, and that a RRR cut is imminent in China Client can sign up here for our Drop-In on Asia’s big macro and market stories …
23rd November 2022
Reserve Bank of New Zealand will probably hike by 75bp on Wednesday (01.00 GMT) We think South Africa’s inflation softened in October (08.00 GMT) We expect UK Flash PMIs to show further weakness in November (09.30 GMT) Key Market Themes Supply …
22nd November 2022
We expect Nigeria’s central bank to hike by 100bp to 16.5%… …but Hungary’s central bank is likely to keep policy settings unchanged (13.00 GMT) We think retail sales in Canada fell by 1.0% m/m in September (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes The …
21st November 2022
Although we think the yields of high-grade, long-dated government bonds will fall in general in the next couple of years, we expect those of Bunds to fall by less than those of Treasuries, as comparatively sticky inflation in the euro-zone keeps monetary …
We expect 75bp rate hikes from central banks in New Zealand, Sweden and South Africa We think flash PMI data for November will show that activity contracted in the UK… (Wed.) …as well as in Germany, France and in the euro-zone (Wed.) Key Market Themes …
18th November 2022
Having increased sharply throughout the year, we think that emerging market (EM) local currency sovereign bond yields will probably only increase by a little more in the first half of next year, despite a looming world recession. Yields may then start to …
Japan’s headline inflation probably rose to 3.5% in October (Thu., 23.30 GMT) We think UK retail sales volumes were flat in October (07.00 GMT) We suspect Chile’s GDP contracted by 0.3% q/q in Q3 (11.30 GMT) Key Market Themes The market reaction to …
17th November 2022
We think US housing starts fell in October on the back of rising mortgage rates (15.00 GMT) We expect the central banks of Indonesia and the Philippines to raise rates Clients can sign up here for our Drop-In on the UK Autumn Statement (16.00 GMT) Key …
16th November 2022
Higher utility prices probably pushed UK CPI inflation higher in October (07.00 GMT) We think US retail sales increased by 1.3% last month… (13.30 GMT) … but we expect industrial production to have risen by a more-muted 0.2% (14.15 GMT) Key Market …
15th November 2022
We’re sticking with our view that the equity market rally will go into reverse as the world economy slips into a recession. Equities surged last week, boosted by a soft US CPI print . The ~5.5% gain in the S&P 500 on Thursday, for example, was its largest …
14th November 2022
Activity data likely to show that China’s economy lost momentum last month… (02.00 GMT) …but we expect the PBOC to refrain from cutting its MLF rate tomorrow We think tightness in the UK labour market eased in September (07.00 GMT) Key Market Themes …
We think economic activity was weak in China in October, but probably held up in the US We expect central banks in the Philippines and Indonesia to hike rates (Thu.) Clients can sign up here for our Drop-In on the UK Autumn Statement (Thu.) Key Market …
11th November 2022
We don’t expect the 10-year JGB yield to rise above the top of the Bank of Japan’s tolerance band, and think it may even fall back to the middle of that band next year as yields continue to decline elsewhere. Yields fell sharply around the world, and the …
China’s equities have received a boost recently from speculation that the country will ease its strict zero-COVID policy, but we don’t think this marks the start of a more sustained rally; we forecast benchmark Chinese equity indices to fall over the next …
10th November 2022
We think Malaysia’s GDP growth slowed sharply in Q3… (04.00 GMT) … and the UK economy contracted, marking the start of a recession (07.00 GMT) Consumer sentiment in the US probably remained low in early November (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes US …
We think US consumer price inflation fell back in October (13.30 GMT) Mexico’s central bank is likely to deliver another 75bp hike… (19.00 GMT) … but we expect policymakers in Peru to keep interest rates on hold (23.00 GMT) Key Market Themes The …
9th November 2022
We think CPI inflation eased in China in October … (01.30 GMT) …but remained well above the central bank’s target in Mexico (12.00 GMT) We expect Poland’s central bank to announce a 25bp hike Key Market Themes Although US “big-tech” stocks have had a …
8th November 2022
Brazil’s financial markets have been some of the world’s best performers lately, supported in part by the prospect of centrist policymaking by incoming president Lula. With the presidential election now complete, and Lula set to be inaugurated soon, a …
We think euro-zone retail sales increased by 0.8% m/m in September (10.00 GMT) Romania’s central bank is likely to hike by 50bp (13.00 GMT) Register here for a Drop-In to discuss the key takeaways from our Global Economic Outlook Key Market Themes The …
7th November 2022
Germany’s industrial production probably slumped in September (Mon.) We think annual US core CPI inflation fell in October (Thu.) We expect rate hikes in Mexico, Poland and Romania Key Market Themes While we still think a sustained fall in Treasury …
4th November 2022
Chief Markets Economist John Higgins held a discussion with economists from across our Markets team shortly after the release of our Q4 Outlooks. During this briefing, John and the team answered client questions and highlighted key takeaways from their …
The differing tones of the Fed, ECB and BoE at their recent meetings have seen yields rise in the US more than elsewhere and reignited the rally in the US dollar. That pattern could last a few more months. But we expect falling inflation in the US to mean …
3rd November 2022
Composite PMIs for Italy and Spain probably fell further in October (09.00 GMT) We think US non-farm payrolls rose by 225,000 in October (12.30 GMT) Sign-up to our Global Economics Drop-In on the upcoming recession Key Market Themes We’re inclined to …
Downward revisions to expectations for earnings have taken a toll in the second half of this year so far on the S&P 500, which had been under pressure in the first half from a discount-rate-driven drop in its valuation. We suspect expectations for …
2nd November 2022
We think the Fed will deliver another 75bp hike today (18.00 GMT) Norway’s central bank will probably hike by 50bp on Thursday... (09.00 GMT) …and we expect the Bank of England to raise its policy rate by 100bp (12.00 GMT) Key Market Themes We think an …
We expect the Fed to deliver a fourth 75bp rate hike, before slowing down (18.00 GMT) Sign up for our UK Drop-In looking ahead to the Bank of England’s policy meeting … … and for our Climate Drop-In on the forces that will drive the green transition Key …
1st November 2022
We expect the RBA to hike by 25bp (03.30 BST) We expect the ISM manufacturing index for October to have fallen below 50 (14.00 BST) Clients can sign up here for our Drop-In on US real estate (16.00 BST) Key Market Themes We suspect investors are a bit …
31st October 2022
We think the Fed will raise rates by 75bp next week…(Wed.) …while the Bank of England may hike by 100bp (Thu.) We expect a smaller gain in US non-farm payrolls in October (Fri.) Key Market Themes We don’t think growth stocks ’ relative struggles are …
28th October 2022
We think the recent rallies in government bond markets will gain steam next year as inflationary pressures ease and central banks, especially the Fed, turn less hawkish. But, while rising real yields have probably been the biggest headwind for “risky” …
We expect the Bank of Japan to leave policy unchanged Russia’s central bank may cut its policy rate by another 50bp… (11.30 BST) …while we expect a 100bp rate hike in Colombia (19.00 BST) Key Market Themes Despite some dovish elements in today’s ECB …
27th October 2022
We expect another big hike from the ECB on Thursday (13.15 BST) We think US GDP rebounded in the third quarter (13.30 BST) Sign up for our Asia Drop-In on China’s Congress, yen weakness and more Key Market Themes The rebound across major bond , equity , …
26th October 2022
As the recent breakdown of the UK Gilt market illustrates, policymakers face an increasingly difficult trade-off between combating inflation, supporting economic growth and maintaining financial stability. With core bond and currency markets facing very …
We think CPI inflation in Australia accelerated to 7.2% in Q3 (01.30 BST) We expect another 75bp rate hike from the Bank of Canada (15.00 BST) But Brazil’s central bank is likely to leave its policy rate on hold (22.30 BST) Key Market Themes Recent …
25th October 2022
German Ifo may point towards a deep recession (09.00 BST) We expect Hungary’s central bank to leave its main policy rate on hold (13.00 BST) Clients can sign up here for a Drop-In on the outlook for the euro-zone (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes Given all …
24th October 2022
We don’t think the valuations of emerging market (EM) equities will continue to hold up better than those in developed markets (DMs) if, as we expect, the global economy slips into recession. The valuations of emerging market equities – as measured by …
21st October 2022
We think the ECB will raise its policy rate by 100bp… (Thu.) …and we expect large rate hikes in Canada and Colombia too But we think policymakers in Brazil, Hungary, and Japan will leave rates on hold Key Market Themes China’s stock markets have fallen …
We expect to see a fall in retail sales volumes in the UK in September… (07.00 BST) … and a rise in Poland over the same period… (09.00 BST) … but we think retail sales values were broadly unchanged in Canada in August. (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes UK …
20th October 2022
Although the extra risk premia on the UK’s sovereign bonds and currency that emerged in the wake of the UK’s “mini”-budget have partly unwound, this doesn’t necessarily mean Gilts and sterling are set to return to where they were before Liz Truss’s …
China’s central bank will probably keep its Loan Prime Rate unchanged… (02.15 BST) …but we think Indonesia’s will hike by 50 bp (08.20 BST) We expect Turkey’s central bank to cut interest rates by 50 bp (12.00 BST) Key Market Themes Although corporate …
19th October 2022
UK headline inflation may have surpassed 10% in September… (07.00 BST) … but CPI inflation in Canada probably dropped back (13.30 BST) We think US housing starts slumped last month (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes The yen ’s latest weakness has pushed its …
18th October 2022
While the latest change of plans by the UK government takes, in our view, a lot of the upside risk out of Gilt yields, we suspect stubborn risk premia remain that may take some time to fade completely. The latest U-turn in UK fiscal policy seems to have …
Germany’s ZEW indicator probably plunged again in October (10.00 BST) US industrial production appears to be flatlining (14.15 BST) Sign up here for our final CE Spotlight Drop-In to discuss commodities and green transitions Key Market Themes While …
17th October 2022
We think industrial production in the US flatlined in September (Tue.) UK CPI inflation probably rose above 10% last month... (Wed.) ...but inflation probably edged lower in Japan (Fri.) Key Market Themes We think that we could see a small boost for …
14th October 2022
We think benchmark equity indices in Taiwan, Korea and India will fall a bit further over the remainder of this year and into 2023, as the global economy slips into a recession. Although they have generally fallen alongside global equity markets this …
Despite the hot September US CPI print from yesterday, we still expect Treasury yields to drop back over time. And we think the drop will mostly be driven by falls in the real yield, rather than inflation compensation. Our US Economics Service is the …
We think China’s PBOC will keep its policy rate on hold… (02.20 BST) …with CPI exceeding the PBOC’s target for the first time since 2020 (02.30 BST) Rewatch today’s Drop-in on the latest US CPI figures and the US economic outlook here Key Market Themes …
13th October 2022
Chile’s central bank is likely to hike by 50bp later today (22.00 BST) We think consumer price inflation in Sweden climbed higher in September… (07.00 BST) … but headline CPI probably eased in the US last month (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes A generous …
12th October 2022
Central banks have the tools to deal with liquidity crises arising from rising interest rates and falling asset prices. Instead, the bigger threat is that higher interest rates produce large and simultaneous falls in asset prices that threaten the …
11th October 2022
