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We expect Mexico’s central bank to deliver a final 25bp hike, to 11.50% (Thu.) We think inflation in Japan climbed further in May (Fri.) Canada’s retail sales probably fell in March (Fri.) Key Market Themes The S&P 500 has posted solid gains in 2023, but …
18th May 2023
Any impact of QT has so far been modest and swamped by the effects of higher policy rates. Asset disposals might put some upward pressure on yields in the euro-zone in the near term, but the process of balance sheet normalisation will be slow and in some …
We think the Philippines’ central bank will pause its tightening cycle… (08.00 BST) …but expect Egypt’s central bank to hike its policy rate by 200bp A number of US data releases tomorrow may show signs of weakness Key Market Themes We think the recent …
17th May 2023
We think Japan’s economy expanded by 0.2% q/q in the first quarter (00.50 BST) Euro-zone data will probably confirm HICP inflation ticked up to 7.0% in April (10.00 BST) Sign up here for a Drop-In to discuss our long-term energy forecasts (15.00 BST) …
16th May 2023
We expect April activity and spending data in China to be flattered by base effects (03.00 BST) The UK labour market probably remained tight by historical standards in March (07.00 BST) US retail sales likely rebounded in April, though real consumption is …
15th May 2023
The PBOC is likely to leave the MLF rate unchanged at 2.75% (Mon) US retail sales probably rose in April, but industrial production may have declined (Tue) We think UK wage growth eased but labour market conditions probably remained tight (Tue) Key …
12th May 2023
Click here to read the full report . This revamped Global Markets Valuations Monitor combines and replaces our previous DM Valuations Monitor and EM Valuations Monito r publications. … Global Markets Valuations Monitor (May …
Sovereign debt risks are back in focus as some frontiers appear to be drifting closer to default. We remain most concerned about default risks in Tunisia and Pakistan, particularly in light of this week’s unrest and IMF deals now appear further away. Debt …
We expect Peru’s central bank to leave its policy rate unchanged (00.00 BST) GDP data may show that UK economy grew slightly in Q1 (07.00 BST) University of Michigan consumer sentiment index probably edged lower in May (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes …
11th May 2023
We don’t think long-dated Treasuries are bound to fare worse than the S&P 500 in the coming weeks, even as the risk of US sovereign default looms larger. Our US Economics Service is the place to look for detail on the evolving debt ceiling spat, which …
We think annual CPI inflation fell further in China in April (02.30 BST) The Bank of England looks set to hike interest rates by another 25bp (12.00 BST) We will be hosting Drop-Ins on Thailand and the BoE tomorrow – sign up here Key Market Themes Despite …
10th May 2023
US core CPI inflation probably fell down to 5.3% y/y in April (13.30 BST) We think the central banks of Poland and Romania will leave rates on hold Sign-up here for our Drop-in on the upcoming elections in Turkey Key Market Themes With credit conditions …
9th May 2023
Fed’s Senior Loan Officer survey likely to show tightening in bank lending standards (Mon.) We expect the downward trend in US core inflation to have resumed in April (Wed.) The Bank of England looks likely to hike interest rates by another 25bp (Thu.) …
5th May 2023
Euro-zone retail sales probably fell again in March (10.00 BST) We think growth in US non-farm payrolls moderated to 180,000 in April (13.30 BST) While in Canada, we expect employment to have risen by 25,000 last month (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes The …
4th May 2023
We forecast small further falls in the yields of long-dated US Treasuries and euro-zone sovereign bonds between now and the end of next year, as disinflation picks up steam and central banks turn more dovish. Investors largely shrugged off this week’s …
Click here to read the full report. We think the economic recovery in China will support further gains in the country’s equity market. Despite some renewed evidence that China’s economy has been recovering more strongly than most anticipated in the first …
3rd May 2023
We expect a final 25bp rate hike from the Fed today, to 5.00-5.25%... (19.00 BST) ...and a 50bp hike from the ECB tomorrow, to 3.50% (13.15 BST) The US trade deficit probably narrowed sharply in March (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes The FOMC looks set to …
We think the euro-zone unemployment rate edged down last month (10.00 BST) The ISM Services Index was probably consistent with a stagnation in GDP in April (15.00 BST) We expect the Fed to deliver a final 25bp rate hike, to 5.00% - 5.25% (19.00 BST) Key …
2nd May 2023
We expect the Fed to deliver a final 25bp hike… (Wed.) …while the ECB will probably raise the deposit rate by 50bp (Thu.) We think US non-farm payrolls rose by a softer 180,000 in April (Fri.) Key Market Themes With Yield Curve Control (YCC) set to stay …
28th April 2023
Resilience in much of the global economic data of late has raised questions over whether the recessions we expect in most developed markets (DMs) will materialise later than we had initially thought. As such, we now forecast most “risky” assets will reach …
27th April 2023
We think the Bank of Japan will abandon Yield Curve Control at Friday’s meeting Euro-zone GDP probably rose slightly in Q1 (10.00 BST) We expect the Central Bank of Colombia to raise its key policy rate by 25bp (19.00 BST) Key Market Themes We think the …
We think disappointing global growth will be a headwind for “risky” assets in developed markets (DMs) during the second half of this year. So far, this month has been a tale of two halves . Over the first part of the month, investors looked like they were …
We think GDP in Sweden contracted in Q1 for a second consecutive quarter (07.00 BST) Turkey’s central bank is likely to leave its key rate unchanged again (12.00 BST) US GDP probably held up in Q1, but we expect a sharper slowdown soon (13.30 BST) Key …
26th April 2023
Sweden’s Riksbank will probably hike by 50bp (08.30 BST) We think US durable goods orders only fell marginally in March (13.30 BST) Catch-up here on today’s CE Advance Drop-In on our revamped Financial Conditions Indices Key Market Themes We don’t …
25th April 2023
We think that Korea’s economy slipped into recession in Q1 (00.00 BST) UK public sector borrowing probably undershot the OBR’s target in 2022/23 (07.00 BST) We expect US home sales and consumer confidence to paint a weak picture (15.00 BST) Key Market …
24th April 2023
We think US GDP grew by 1.8% annualised in Q1 (Thu.) Euro-zone GDP probably rose by a smaller 0.1% q/q (Fri.) We expect the BoJ to abandon Yield Curve Control at Governor Ueda’s first meeting (Fri.) Key Market Themes We think that the more recent …
21st April 2023
Retail sales volumes in the UK probably fell in March (07.00 BST) We think the Composite PMI for the euro-zone remained unchanged in April… (09.00 BST) … while PMIs in the US and UK edged down Key Market Themes We think Fed Chair Powell was right to …
20th April 2023
We think price pressures remained elevated in New Zealand in Q1 (22.45 BST) Sign-up here for tomorrow’s Drop-in on our revamped financial condition indices… …and here to catch up on yesterday’s Drop-In on China’s post-lockdown recovery Key Market …
19th April 2023
We think euro-zone equities will struggle as the region’s economy weakens more than investors expect. Euro-zone equities have continued their strong year-to-date gains this month, with the short-lived dip on the back of the banking turmoil now fully …
We think investors’ expectations for the Fed funds rate will fall a little by the end of this year, which will push the 10-year Treasury yield a bit lower by end-2023. But we doubt lower “risk-free” rates would be enough to prevent a sharp drop in the S&P …
UK headline CPI probably fell in March while core pressures remained strong (07.00 BST) See our revised and expanded Financial Conditions Indices for advanced economies here Catch up on today’s Drop-In on China’s post-lockdown recovery here Key Market …
18th April 2023
China’s Q1 GDP data may show robust q/q growth (03.00 BST) We expect Indonesia’s central bank to leave policy unchanged (08.20 BST) Sign up here for our Drop-In on China’s post-lockdown recovery (09.00 BST) Key Market Themes Q1 earnings reports from US …
17th April 2023
UK headline CPI probably fell in March, though core pressures remain strong (Wed.) We expect the PBOC to keep its 1-Year Loan Prime Rate on hold next week (Thu.) Flash PMIs for the euro-zone may point to a continued expansion in April (Fri.) Key Market …
14th April 2023
Financial market strains have eased over recent weeks, though some pockets of uncertainty remain and our sense is that the risk of further problems emerging in the coming months remains high. Since the forced takeover of Credit Suisse by rival UBS three …
We think Peru’s central bank will keep its policy rate on hold at 7.75% (Thu.) US activity data for March may cast doubt on the case for a 25bp hike (Fri.) We expect Singapore’s central bank to leave policy unchanged (Fri.) Key Market Themes The recent …
13th April 2023
Although equity and oil prices are usually positively correlated, we think equities will struggle in the next few months and that oil prices will end this year somewhat higher than they are now. We also expect a rebound in equities across the board in …
GDP growth was probably flat in the UK in February (07.00 BST) Industrial production is likely to have risen in the euro-zone in February (10.00 BST) Catch up on today’s Drop-in on what the latest US inflation data mean for the Fed here Key Market Themes …
12th April 2023
We think India’s CPI inflation fell below the RBI’s upper limit of 6% in March (13.00 BST) US CPI inflation probably dropped to 5.4% in March (13.30 BST) We expect the Bank of Canada to keep its policy rate unchanged (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes Amid …
11th April 2023
The next edition of the Capital Daily will be published on 11 th April 2023, after Easter Monday. We expect the US employment report to show the labour market is cooling (Fri.) Headline CPI inflation in China may have dropped below 1% in March (Tue.) We …
6th April 2023
We anticipate that the S&P 500 will fall back later in 2023, largely because analysts are far from pricing in a recession in the US that we think is even more likely after the recent banking turmoil. Our forecast is that the index will reach a trough of …
The RBI will probably end its tightening cycle with a 25bp hike on Thursday (04.30 BST) Industrial production was probably flat in Germany in February (07.00 BST) Catch up on yesterday’s Drop-in on the outlook for global financial markets here Key Market …
5th April 2023
We expect the RBNZ to slow the pace of tightening and hike by 25bp (02.00 BST) The ISM Services Index is likely to show further signs of slower growth (15.00 BST) We think policymakers in Chile and Poland will keep interest rates on hold Key Market …
4th April 2023
Sign up to our Drop-In on our latest outlook for financial markets We expect policymakers to keep policy rates unchanged in Australia, at 3.6%… (04.30 BST) … as well as in Romania, at 7.0% (14.00 BST) Key Market Themes Although the decision by OPEC+ …
3rd April 2023
We expect the RBA to pause its tightening cycle next week (Tue.) The National Bank of Poland will probably also keep rates on hold (Wed.) We think the US labour market cooled in March (Fri.) Key Market Themes Although a “narrowing” of the stock market …
31st March 2023
The recent turmoil in the global banking sector have sent ripples through financial markets. So far, a full-blown financial crisis doesn’t seem likely to us, although clearly any escalation would add to risky assets’ worries. But even if that is avoided, …
China’s official PMIs are likely to show economic momentum fading in March (02.30 BST) We think euro-zone headline inflation fell in March, while core remained strong (10.00 BST) Real consumption in the US probably changed little in February (13.30 BST) …
30th March 2023
With the dust settling on the recent turmoil in US and European banks, economists from across our financial markets coverage assessed the damage to the outlook for bonds, equities and FX. Chief Markets Economist John Higgins and the team held an online …
We think Germany’s inflation rate fell sharply in March (12.00 BST) The central bank in South Africa will probably hike its policy rate by 25bp… (14.00 BST) … while policymakers in Egypt may deliver an aggressive 300bp hike Key Market Themes During the …
29th March 2023
Canada’s 2023 budget likely to focus on longer-term measures (Tue.) We expect Czechia’s central bank to leave its policy rate on hold… (Wed.) …and we think Thailand’s central bank will do likewise (Wed.) Key Market Themes The recent surge in the yield …
28th March 2023
We expect Hungary’s central bank to leave policy unchanged (13.00 BST) US Conference Board data may give an indication of any recent hit to sentiment (15.00 BST) Sign up here for tomorrow’s Drop-In on the risks around commercial real estate (16.00 BST) …
27th March 2023
