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We expect the Bank of Canada to hike by 25bp… (15.00 GMT) … and clients can register here for our Drop-In following that decision (17.00 GMT) We think rates will be raised by 25bp in Thailand and be left on hold in Sri Lanka Key Market Themes Today's …
24th January 2023
The flash PMI might have edged up in the euro-zone in January… (09.00 GMT) … but we think it fell back in the UK (09.30 GMT) We expect central banks in Hungary and Nigeria to keep interest rates on hold Key Market Themes We don’t think government bond …
23rd January 2023
We expect rate hikes in Canada, Colombia, South Africa and Thailand… …but expect central banks in Hungary and Chile to leave rates on hold US data likely to show that economic momentum faded in December (Thu. & Fri.) Key Market Themes Although the …
20th January 2023
We expect the China’s Loan Prime Rate to remain unchanged (01.30 GMT) Retail sales in the UK probably increased by 2.5% m/m in December… (07.00 GMT) …but in Canada we think that preliminary data will show retail sales declined (13.30 GMT) Key Market …
19th January 2023
Japan’s trade deficit probably widened in December (23.50 GMT) We think the Norges Bank will hike its policy rate by 25bp, to 3.00% (09.00 GMT) US housing starts may have fallen sharply in December (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes The latest signs that …
18th January 2023
We think the Bank of Japan will probably keep policy settings unchanged on Wednesday We expect UK CPI inflation to have fallen from 10.7% to 10.2% in December (07.00 GMT) US retail sales and industrial production data are both likely to be weak (13.30 & …
17th January 2023
We think the yield of 10-year Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) would rise to at least 1% if the Bank of Japan (BoJ) decided to abandon Yield Curve Control (YCC), which could conceivably happen as soon as tomorrow. But we wouldn’t be surprised if it ended …
Activity data is likely to show that China’s economy lost momentum last month (02.00 GMT) We think tightness in the UK labour market eased in November (07.00 GMT) Germany’s ZEW survey will offer first clues about economic sentiment this year (10.00 GMT) …
16th January 2023
BoJ may abandon Yield Curve Control as soon as next week (Wed) We think the PBOC will leave rates on hold next week, buts cuts are coming We anticipate interest rate hikes in Norway, Indonesia and Malaysia Key Market Themes An end to Japan’s Yield Curve …
13th January 2023
We have revised up our forecasts for equities in China, given a brighter outlook for the economy there. We have also increased our China 10-year sovereign bond yield forecast for end-2023, as we think that a faster economic recovery will lead to tighter …
Further big falls in inflation seem now to be discounted in major developed markets, especially the US. That helps to underpin our view that high-grade government bond markets will only rally a little further over the remainder of this year even if, as we …
12th January 2023
The Bank of Korea is likely to implement one final 25bp hike (01.00 GMT) Chinese trade data will probably show falls in both imports and exports in December We think UK GDP fell by 0.3% m/m in November (07.00 GMT) Key Market Themes The latest evidence …
December CPI inflation probably edged down in China despite reopening… (01.30 GMT) … and fell back in the US driven by softer core inflation and lower energy prices (13.30 GMT) Sign up here for our Drop-In on the implications of the US CPI print for …
11th January 2023
We think Australia’s consumer price inflation remained at 6.9% in November (00.30 GMT) Catch up here on today’s Global Macro Drop-In where we discussed our 2023 outlook… …and sign up here for tomorrow’s Financial and Commodity Markets Drop-In Key Market …
10th January 2023
We think Norway’s headline inflation fell sharply in December… (07.00 GMT) … and edged lower in Brazil (18.00 GMT) Sign up for our Drop-In tomorrow on the outlook for the global economy in 2023 Key Market Themes The storming of Brazil’s congress by …
9th January 2023
Credit growth in China probably remained weak at the end of last year We think US CPI inflation fell further in December (Thu.) We expect rate hikes in Korea and Romania next week Key Market Themes While investors seem to have judged that today’s …
6th January 2023
While we think the hawkish ECB poses a near-term threat to euro-zone government bonds, we still expect their yields to be lower, in general, by the end of this year . Having climbed throughout December, developed market government bond yields have …
Euro-zone inflation may have fallen to 9.2% in December (10.00 GMT) We think US non-farm payrolls growth slowed to 160,000 in December (13.30 GMT) The US ISM Services survey will probably point to slowing momentum (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes Despite …
5th January 2023
December FOMC minutes may reveal impact of softer CPI prints on Fed thinking (19.00 GMT) We think the US trade balance narrowed dramatically in November (13.30 GMT) Sign up for our Drop In on the outlook for global inflation here Key Market Themes …
4th January 2023
The US ISM Manufacturing Index may have dipped further in December (15.00 GMT) We expect Poland’s central bank to keep rates on hold on Wednesday Read our key calls for the global economy and financial markets in 2023 here Key Market Themes After …
3rd January 2023
We expect US data to show weak economic momentum in November (13.30 GMT) Clients can read our World In 2023 reports here … …and register for the related Drop-In sessions, in early January, on the same page The next edition of the Capital Daily will be …
22nd December 2022
We think investors are still too optimistic on global growth, and that “risky” assets will struggle over the first half of 2023 as a result. Investors seem increasingly to have come around to our view on inflation over the past couple of months, namely …
We expect Indonesia’s central bank to hike by 25bp tomorrow (07.20 GMT) Turkey’s central bank will probably leave policy on hold (11.00 GMT) We think inflation in Mexico edged down in the first half of December (12.00 GMT) Key Market Themes We doubt the …
21st December 2022
We expect lower global risk appetite, as well as rising country-specific risk premia in some cases, to put upward pressure on the yields of 10-year local-currency (LC) government bonds in emerging markets (EM) in the first half of 2023. But later in the …
The surge in government bond yields around the world in response to today’s decision by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to tweak its policy of Yield Curve Control (YCC) highlights the risks to international markets posed by the country’s huge investment overseas. …
20th December 2022
Headline inflation may have dropped back in Canada in November (13.30 GMT) We expect the Czech central bank to keep interest rates on hold (13.30 GMT) Sign up here for our Drop-In on Wednesday to discuss the BoJ decision Key Market Themes Although …
We expect the PBOC to keep the Loan Prime Rate on hold (01.15 GMT) The BoJ will probably keep its policy settings unchanged… …and we think Hungary’s central bank will do likewise (13:00 GMT) Key Market Themes Investors seem to have priced in a more …
19th December 2022
We expect the BoJ to leave its policy settings unchanged next week… (Tue.) …and we think central banks in Hungary, Czechia and Turkey will do likewise Indonesia’s central bank will probably slow its pace of tightening to 25bp (Thu.) Key Market Themes …
16th December 2022
Fed strikes back but activity data suggests it will cut rates before the end of next year Markets take fright at ECB’s hawkish comments and the prospect of quantitative tightening Despite a dovish tone, the BoE may yet hike rates much further Key …
15th December 2022
This is part of a series of reports outlining our key macro and market calls for 2023. Click here to view the full series. Our latest Asset Allocation Outlook can be found here . Two of the three topics we expect to dominate the global macroeconomic …
We expect the Fed to slow the pace of rate hikes to 50bp later today (19.00 GMT) The BoE will probably also slow tightening and hike by 50bp on Thursday… (12.00 GMT) … and we think the ECB will follow suit with a 50bp increase too (13.15 GMT) Key Market …
14th December 2022
We suspect investors are underestimating how disruptive the transition from zero-COVID will prove for China, which could threaten some of the recent rises in the country’s equity prices, bond yields and currency. But once that disruption has begun to …
We think UK CPI inflation held steady at 11.1% in November (07.00 GMT) Euro-zone industrial production probably fell by about 2% m/m in October (10.00 GMT) We expect the Fed to deliver a 50bp hike and project a higher peak in rates (19.00 GMT) Key …
13th December 2022
We think tightness in the UK labour market eased in October (07.00 GMT) Germany’s ZEW survey may show an improvement in investor sentiment (10.00 GMT) US consumer price inflation probably fell back further in November (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes With …
12th December 2022
Although US corporate bond spreads have been falling since mid-October, we expect them to rise again before long as the global economy slips into recession. The spreads of investment-grade US corporate bonds, as captured by the option-adjusted spread …
We think US consumer price inflation continued to ease last month (Tue.) We expect the Fed to slow the pace of tightening with a 50bp hike (Wed.) Clients can register here for our Drop In for next week’s major central bank decisions (Thu.) Key Market …
9th December 2022
We expect the 10-year Treasury yield to decline only a little further as US inflation continues to ease. Treasury yields have fallen sharply in recent weeks, as investors have revised down their expectations for the path of the federal funds rate . The …
We think price pressures in China cooled further in November… (01.30 GMT) … while a decline in US PPI could foreshadow a similar drop in CPI next week (13.30 GMT) University of Michigan consumer confidence is probably still historically weak (15.00 GMT) …
8th December 2022
We suspect that the S&P 500 will make a new cyclical low by the spring of 2023 as a shallow recession gets underway in the US, before rebounding to end next year higher than it is now. Our forecast is that there will be a mild economic downturn in the US …
We think the Bank of Canada will hike rates by 25bp later today… (15.00 GMT) …but central banks in Brazil and Poland will probably keep rates unchanged Catch-up here on yesterday’s Drop-In on inflation in the US and the Euro-zone Key Market Themes An …
7th December 2022
Germany’s industrial output probably contracted by 0.5% m/m in October (07.00 GMT) We expect China’s exports to have fallen by 5.5% y/y due to cooling global demand We think the Bank of Canada will hike rates by 25bp, while Poland’s central bank stays …
6th December 2022
We think the Reserve Bank of Australia will hike the cash rate by 25bp (03.30 GMT) The US international trade deficit probably widened sharply in October (13.30 GMT) Clients can sign-up here for a Drop In on our inflation outlook for the US and …
5th December 2022
Euro-zone retail sales may have fallen in October (Mon.) We except another hike from central banks in Australia (Tue.), India and Peru… (Wed.) … while banks in Chile (Tue.), Poland and Brazil will probably keep rates unchanged (Wed.) Key Market Themes …
2nd December 2022
If China’s authorities were to accelerate the abandonment of their zero-COVID policies, we think it could actually prove a headwind for global asset prices. But we doubt they will do so for a while yet. The protests in China in recent days have …
We think US non-farm payrolls rose by a more modest 175,000 in November… (13.30 GMT) … while employment growth in Canada probably slowed to 25,000 last month (13.30 GMT) Catch up on our Drop-In discussing EM inflation dynamics here Key Market Themes The …
1st December 2022
Although Chinese stocks have reversed a two year or so downward trend in the past month amid hopes that zero-COVID policies will end, we doubt this is a sign of things to come in the near term. Since its trough on 31 st October, the MSCI China Index has …
Fed’s Powell may push back against recent easing in financial conditions (Wed., 18.30 GMT) We think US manufacturing ISM may have slipped below 50 in November (Thu., 15.00 GMT) We will be hosting Drop-Ins on UK house prices and EM policy rates tomorrow …
30th November 2022
Turkey’s GDP growth probably slowed in the third quarter (07.00) We think euro-zone inflation declined in October (10.00 GMT) Thailand’s central bank is likely to hike by 25bp (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes Although Bund yields have fallen today amid …
29th November 2022
The Euro-zone’s Economic Sentiment Index is likely to have remained very weak (10.00 GMT) We think Germany’s HICP inflation stayed at 11.6% in November (13.00 GMT) Canada’s GDP growth probably slowed to 1.6% annualised in the third quarter (13.30 GMT) …
28th November 2022
Euro-zone inflation may have risen again this month (Wed.) November’s US ISM manufacturing survey probably dropped below 50 (Thu.) We think US non-farm payrolls rose by a more modest 175,000 in November (Fri.) Key Market Themes Chinese equities have …
25th November 2022
