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We think that the recent sharp falls in commodity prices are more than just a temporary dip in an upward trend. The focus has been on the oil price, which has fallen by more than $25 per barrel (or 18%) since early July. However, other commodity prices …
5th August 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … FOMC on hold …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Windows for interest rate hikes are rapidly shutting …
4th August 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US Q2 GDP was as good as it gets …
1st August 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed acts again to support financial sector …
31st July 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK consumer spending to stagnate at best next year …
30th July 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Has the US housing market bottomed out? …
29th July 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Falling commodity prices and weaker growth a boon to bonds …
28th July 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Pace of renminbi appreciation to pick up again …
25th July 2008
Despite the slower pace of appreciation against the dollar in recent weeks, the renminbi is still likely to rise significantly more than the 5% or so priced into the forwards markets for the next 12 months. … No policy shift on the Chinese …
24th July 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Focus shifts to eurozone ahead of IFO, PMI data …
Contrary to the conventional wisdom, the absence of a build-up of crude oil inventories does not rule out the possibility that speculation has been helping to drive up oil prices. … Can speculation drive up oil prices without a rise in …
23rd July 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Worst fears about inflation continue to fade …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Spotlight set to shift to weakening euro-zone economy …
22nd July 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Inflation not all bad news …
21st July 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Too soon to call the end of the bear market …
18th July 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Growth trumping inflation in the rate debate …
17th July 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Looking beyond dollar weakness …
16th July 2008
The media is again full of speculation that the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are about to revalue their currencies against the dollar, or drop their pegs completely in favour of a currency basket. We remain sceptical that any changes are …
15th July 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Investors reassured by Treasury/Fed action on GSEs …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bernanke to do his best to calm markets …
14th July 2008
Our central scenario assumes that oil prices and food inflation drop back in the second half of the year, reducing the burden on real incomes and the upward pressure on interest rates. This may come too late to prevent one or two quarters of falling GDP …
11th July 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … More bad news …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK yield curve to steepen as rate expectations fall …
10th July 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Recession fears to undermine UK equities further …
9th July 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro may have peaked, but not about to collapse …
8th July 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed in no hurry to follow the ECB …
7th July 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Dollar dodges two bullets …
4th July 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro closing in on $1.60 …
3rd July 2008
The recent pick-up in gold prices has failed to impress. We continue to expect prices to drop back to around $700/oz within a year or so. … Gold’s last …
2nd July 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US economy not out of the woods despite firmer ISM …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Falling UK house prices a prelude to a consumption slump …
1st July 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US unemployment rate to rise to 6% by year-end …
30th June 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed inaction has unintended consequences …
27th June 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … MPC testimony should help clarify risks to UK interest rates …
26th June 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … One or two FOMC members may vote to hike rates today …
25th June 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Latest activity surveys suggest July ECB hike would be a one-off …
24th June 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed on hold for a prolonged period …
23rd June 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … China's fuel price hikes to help cap global oil prices …
20th June 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … A less pessimistic view on global food prices …
19th June 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Market rate expectations fall despite bad inflation news …
18th June 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Oil summit alone unlikely to provide much price relief …
17th June 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US inflation data won't panic the Fed …
16th June 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed unlikely to hike when unemployment soaring …
13th June 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What if the Irish say “no” to the Lisbon Treaty? …
12th June 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the Bank of England raise rates? …
11th June 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Chances of UK recession grow by the day …
10th June 2008
Friday’s $11 jump in the price of a barrel of crude provides the clearest evidence yet that the oil market is increasingly detached from fundamentals. We are raising our assumptions for the future path of oil prices to reflect the higher starting point …
9th June 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US rates on hold despite unemployment "shock" …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … ECB prepares to hike rates, who will follow? …
6th June 2008
