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Global growth will probably not be as bad as many fear, while monetary policy should remain extremely accommodative in all the major developed economies for at least another year and a half. The downside for risky assets should therefore be limited. …
28th July 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What next for the major asset markets? …
27th July 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US GDP growth should have eclipsed 3% in Q2 …
26th July 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed still a long way from further monetary stimulus …
23rd July 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Gold has already priced in a lot of bad news …
22nd July 2010
The price of gold already includes a large premium for the precious metal’s status as a refuge from economic and financial uncertainty. With inflation risks still low, it would now take a major new shock to propel gold prices significantly higher. … Gold …
21st July 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The dollar – has the worm turned? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … World economy down, but not out …
20th July 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Threat of deflation in the US has receded, but only for a while …
19th July 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Cable’s rally unlikely to last …
16th July 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What happened to the renminbi basket? …
15th July 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Monetary data not so positive for gold …
14th July 2010
We are frequently asked about the relationship between the supply of money and the price of gold. The short answer is that there isn’t one, at least not one that can be relied upon. … What can the money supply tell us about gold …
13th July 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Trouble still lies ahead for the yen …
The persistent strength of the Japanese currency despite last month’s announcement of an unimpressive fiscal plan has led us to scale back our expectations for a sharp sell-off in the second half of the year. Nonetheless, we still think the yen is …
12th July 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The US stock market should avoid a fresh slump …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US data unlikely to dispel fears of a double-dip recession …
9th July 2010
The US stock market has rebounded a little this week. We don’t expect a much stronger showing over the remainder of 2010 and are sticking with our view that the S&P 500 will end the year at around 1075, a little above where it is now. We do, however, …
8th July 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Shipping costs say little about outlook for commodity prices …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How much use is the Baltic index? …
7th July 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How severe is China’s economic slowdown likely to be? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Beware the risk of rising yields …
6th July 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US economic recovery has shifted into a lower gear …
5th July 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … ECB not about to bleed the system dry …
2nd July 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … JGBs in the mid-1990s - any implications for Treasuries? …
1st July 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will sterling’s post-election honeymoon last? …
30th June 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … G20 papers over the cracks …
29th June 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … G20 likely still split on big issues …
28th June 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Gilts should continue to prosper …
25th June 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … A rosy outlook for gilts …
24th June 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Ratings outlook suggests troubles ahead for JGBs …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How long can Japanese yields defy fiscal concerns? …
23rd June 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fiscal squeeze to keep the pressure on UK equities …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The market fall-out from the renminbi move …
22nd June 2010
The timing of China’s decision to allow greater flexibility in the renminbi has caught many others by surprise. But those now expecting a large appreciation against the dollar, and for this to boost the global economy and ease trade tensions, will …
21st June 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Resumption of renminbi appreciation likely soon …
Japan’s equity market has been languishing this year. The Nikkei 225 is down about 5% since the beginning of 2010, while the S&P 500 is broadly unchanged. We don’t expect this underperformance to last, for three reasons. … Japan’s equity market should not …
18th June 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What good will further disinflation do Treasuries? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro’s bounce likely to prove short-lived …
17th June 2010
The euro has recouped a little ground over the past week. The currency’s bounce has coincided with a tentative rally in equity markets, which probably reflects a sense of relief that the global fall-out from Europe’s fiscal crisis has not been worse. (See …
16th June 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Investors in Asia have little to fear from capital controls …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … A tough UK budget still lies ahead …
15th June 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Retail sales data cast a shadow over US recovery …
14th June 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Shrinking corporate savings – a worry for Treasuries? …
11th June 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the euro-zone weathering the crisis? …
The money markets have been showing signs of strain recently, although we are still a long way from a liquidity crisis. We don’t expect tensions to escalate. Accordingly, the downward pressure on the prices of risky assets seen over the past month is …
10th June 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Copper price likely to come under further pressure …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What lessons can we learn from fiscal tightening in Canada? …
9th June 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … G20 fails to reassure markets …
8th June 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Pain in Spain adds to euro’s woes …
7th June 2010
