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This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the US really engaged in a “currency war”? …
10th November 2010
The near 20% rise in the euro against the US dollar over the last six months has clearly not sat comfortably with our prediction back in May that the single currency would depreciate further and drop to parity against the dollar in 2011. But the tide …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Still no closer to the return of the Gold Standard ... …
9th November 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US G-20 current account proposals likely to fall on deaf ears …
8th November 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How are US asset markets likely to respond to QE2 now? …
5th November 2010
The US stock market’s lukewarm reaction to yesterday’s FOMC statement suggests the scale and timing of the Fed’s additional monetary stimulus have been largely, though not completely, discounted. We doubt the rally in equities will last much longer given …
4th November 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the Fed about to repeat the mistake of 2003? …
The prospect of additional quantitative easing in the US boosted the prices of “risky” assets in October. Government bonds also held firm in anticipation of more buying by the Fed. The ongoing loser was the dollar, which provided a further fillip to …
3rd November 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rising bond yields to keep pressure on euro-zone governments …
US Treasury yields should remain anchored even if the scale of additional quantitative easing (QE) disappoints. We are sceptical, however, that the rally in the US equity market will last much longer given the outlook for earnings – emerging equity …
2nd November 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What next for corporate bonds? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … More QE need not lead to further dollar weakness …
1st November 2010
The conventional view that further quantitative easing (QE) is unambiguously negative for the dollar will be tested next week both by the outcome of the Fed meeting and by the decisions of other major central banks. We still expect the US currency to …
29th October 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US Q3 GDP growth likely to be as good as it gets …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Two downside risks to oil prices …
28th October 2010
We continue to expect oil prices to fall back towards $60 per barrel (pb) by the end of next year as the dollar recovers and global demand ultimately disappoints, even though this would take them below the range of $70-80pb favoured by some OPEC members. …
27th October 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … QE2 still likely to set sail in the UK early next year …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Why Japan's equities can ride out a stronger yen …
26th October 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US economy set to slow after a respectable third quarter …
25th October 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How much help is a weaker dollar to US companies? …
22nd October 2010
The dollar’s slide is a welcome boost for US companies. A weaker currency not only allows exporters to gain market share and boost their margins, but also benefits those firms selling goods at home that compete with imports. In addition, a significant …
21st October 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Gilts relieved by UK government's commitment to spending cuts …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … PBoC takes some steam out of commodity price rally …
20th October 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Renminbi's rise to run out of steam …
19th October 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US CPI figures will not ease the Fed's concerns …
18th October 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Commodity (not so) super-cycle …
15th October 2010
The recent strength in the prices of industrial metals and oil has revived talk of a “super-cycle” for these commodities where strong demand from emerging economies drives a multi-year bull market. We are sceptical and fear that these prices are more …
14th October 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What next for real yields? …
The yield on 5-year US Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) has tumbled to a record low of minus 0.5%. It could fall even further if the yield on 5-year conventional Treasuries continues to decline, or if inflation expectations climb. Both of …
13th October 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The Australian dollar looks set for further gains …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What would more quantitative easing mean for Treasuries? …
12th October 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Soft US labour market supports case for QE2 …
11th October 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Equity market implications of further quantitative easing …
8th October 2010
The prospect of additional quantitative easing (QE) by a number of major central banks in the developed world has coincided with a renewed surge in the prices of risky assets. We are sceptical that the rally in equity markets will last in those countries …
7th October 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What next for sterling against the euro? …
The strength of the euro against the dollar in September coincided with a change in investors’ perceptions about the relative outlook for unconventional monetary policy on either side of the Atlantic. We do not expect the support that the change has …
6th October 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How significant are the BoJ's new policy initiatives? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … An unconventional view of unconventional policy …
5th October 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Central banks in focus …
4th October 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Don't read too much into yen intervention …
1st October 2010
This month’s intervention by Japan to weaken the yen has contributed to fears of a “global currency war” or, viewed more positively, to hopes that large-scale unsterilised intervention by the major central banks will be another important way in which …
30th September 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What would a currency war mean for the euro? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is a currency war imminent? …
29th September 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The dollar's latest slide against the euro is unlikely to last …
28th September 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Recovery in the US manufacturing sector has faded significantly …
27th September 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Gold revisited …
24th September 2010
We now expect gold prices to stay high for several more years. Fears of runaway inflation or a dollar collapse, which underpin some of the most bullish forecasts for gold, remain exaggerated. Nonetheless, prices should continue to be supported by strong …
23rd September 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Are investors in TIPS too sanguine about the risk of deflation? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Are shrinking corporate savings a threat to Treasuries? …
22nd September 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Firms' pay-out policy does not mean US equities are attractive …
21st September 2010
