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Investors have become more convinced about the prospect of tighter monetary policy in Europe in response to upward pressure on headline inflation and some reasonably encouraging economic news. One more member of the UK Monetary Policy Committee voted to …
4th March 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … ECB prepares the ground for higher rates …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Risks lie ahead for the euro …
3rd March 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed takes a sanguine view on commodity prices …
2nd March 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Still a bumpy road ahead for Ireland …
1st March 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Speculation of US rate hike still premature …
28th February 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is Algeria next? …
25th February 2011
Another day, another $5 on the cost of a barrel of crude. At this rate it will not be long before prices revisit the highs above $140 seen in 2008. Given the pace at which markets are moving and events are unfolding in the Middle East and North Africa …
24th February 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will surging oil prices cause another recession? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How much is the risk premium in oil prices? …
22nd February 2011
Thus far we have taken a relatively sanguine view of the global economic and market fall-out from the political turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa. The fact that the unrest has spread to Libya does not materially change this view, but it has …
21st February 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … China's RRR hikes reduce pressure for rate increases …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Do SDRs have a bigger role to play? …
18th February 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … King calms UK rate fears …
17th February 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Emerging market equities should not underperform for long …
16th February 2011
One argument put forward for the rally in the US equity market is that share buy-backs are booming. This argument has its theoretical shortcomings, especially if the share buy-backs are financed with cash as opposed to tax efficient debt. Nonetheless, …
14th February 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Should share buy-backs be boosting the US equity market? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Commodity prices pushing up US inflation …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Indian equities should bounce back later in the year …
10th February 2011
Expectations of tighter UK monetary policy have pushed sterling up against the US dollar, driven gilt yields higher, and contributed to an underperformance of the domestic stock market. We continue to think such expectations …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … No need to fear rate rises in China …
9th February 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the future still bright for US corporate bonds? …
8th February 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … January’s US employment report is encouraging …
7th February 2011
Increased optimism about the economic outlook, buoyed by the announcement late last year of further policy stimulus, has helped the US equity market move a little higher since the beginning of 2011. Most commodity prices (with the notable exception of …
4th February 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will EU leaders disappoint the markets? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Don't expect the euro's strength to last …
3rd February 2011
As growth slows out and fears about inflation fade, expectations of higher interest rates in the major developed economies should be scaled back significantly. In the second half of 2011 we expect US Treasury yields to drop back sharply, and the US equity …
2nd February 2011
Much of the coverage of the wider fall-out from the crisis in Egypt has focused on the potential impact on oil prices, but this threat to the global recovery is almost certainly exaggerated. Instead, the bigger risk may be the lingering impact on …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Further thoughts on the fall-out from Egypt …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How worried should we be about developments in Egypt? …
1st February 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US economic growth should slow later this year …
31st January 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japan's fiscal problems will return to haunt the markets …
28th January 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Gold's poor start to the year should not last …
27th January 2011
The price of gold has fallen in recent weeks as reduced safe haven demand has more than offset the increase in inflation fears associated with the rises in some other commodity prices and the renewed slide in the dollar. But if risk aversion jumps again …
26th January 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … More reason than ever for the UK MPC to hold fire …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How worrying is Ireland's political upheaval? …
25th January 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed should stick to its current plans for QE2 …
24th January 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the EFSF ride to Greece's rescue? …
21st January 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Inflation peaks still likely to be lower than in 2008 …
20th January 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … European Fiscal Union is still a long way off …
19th January 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rate expectations unlikely to buoy the euro and sterling for long …
18th January 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US consumers should curb their spending soon …
17th January 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Where might the consensus for 2011 be wrong? …
14th January 2011
We expect 2011 to be a year of generally disappointing growth but also fading fears of inflation in the developed economies, with lower industrial commodity prices and a stronger US dollar against other major currencies. The performance of emerging …
13th January 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Light at the end of the tunnel for UK gilts …
Gilts have had a rough ride over the past couple of months in common with the government bonds of other major economies. Things are unlikely to improve for a while – we think the 10-year yield will hover around 3.5% during the first half of this year. But …
12th January 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will Portugal be the last domino to fall? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is Brazil right to accuse the US of currency manipulation? …
11th January 2011
The Brazilian government’s accusations that the US is engaged in a “currency war” are always good for a headline but continue to have little foundation. China’s manipulation of the renminbi remains a far more likely flashpoint for a global crisis than the …
10th January 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US unemployment still painfully high …
