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This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Deflation would be worse news for equities than bonds …
26th January 2012
Writing in today’s Financial Times, Gavyn Davies argues that “nominal equity returns may be held back by low inflation but in real terms they should outperform government bonds, even if the liquidity trap deepens further”. We believe the logic behind this …
25th January 2012
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bright start to 2012 for “risky” assets unlikely to last …
Risky asset markets have generally made a bright start to 2012. But our central scenario envisages a break-up of EMU this year initially involving Greece’s departure, an outcome that would presumably dampen investors’ optimism. Our forecasts assume stock …
24th January 2012
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Focus remains on outcome of Greek PSI negotiations …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … FOMC meeting to break new ground …
23rd January 2012
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … PSI deal would be no panacea for Greece …
20th January 2012
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What next for US real yields? …
19th January 2012
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Strength in the US stock market unlikely to last …
18th January 2012
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone crisis still a long way from any sort of resolution …
17th January 2012
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Inflation in the spotlight …
16th January 2012
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Further monetary easing coming soon in UK and China …
13th January 2012
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Darker days ahead for the euro …
12th January 2012
The euro fell below $1.27 against the dollar again on Wednesday – close to its lowest level since the autumn of 2010. We do not think its slide is over. Both the relative prospects for monetary policy in the euro-zone and the US and the likelihood of a …
11th January 2012
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What next for euro-zone equities? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Profit outlook should keep the US stock market in check …
10th January 2012
The fourth quarter US corporate earnings season kicks off today. The reporting season is unlikely to be especially upbeat as the profits cycle is now peaking. Looking ahead, the growth rate of profits in 2012 is likely to be much less rapid than in the …
9th January 2012
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Treasuries brush off upbeat US employment report …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro's slide has further to go …
6th January 2012
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Oil prices still likely to end 2012 much lower …
5th January 2012
The US stock market recovered some poise in December. But while we do not expect equity prices to collapse in 2012, we think there are three reasons why they may continue to languish – our end-year forecast for the S&P 500 is 1,150. First, the prospects …
4th January 2012
The US Fed’s decision to start to publish forecasts for its key official interest rate could be another useful policy tool to keep long-term interest rates low, even though that is not the stated intention. However, experience from elsewhere and the …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US election year unlikely to provide a big boost to equities …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Markets - 2012 could be much like 2011 …
22nd December 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Outlook for US equities still gloomy …
21st December 2011
This year’s sizeable falls in most commodity prices have highlighted two points that have actually been clear for much longer but are still not yet acknowledged by many commentators. First, even if some commodities are in the early stages of a multi-year …
20th December 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Surveys should highlight weakness in European economies …
The US stock market is ending 2011 with a whimper. The S&P 500 has fallen so far in December, and is fairly close to our year-end target of 1,200. While we do not expect equity prices to collapse next year, we think the S&P 500 will end 2012 lower still, …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Momentum in the US economy unlikely to last …
19th December 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How long will gold come off second best to the dollar? …
16th December 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Oil prices likely to fall much further …
15th December 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Falling UK inflation bodes well for gilts …
14th December 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … EU Summit provides no relief for Italian government bonds …
13th December 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … FOMC unlikely to announce QE3 until early next year …
12th December 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Markets’ reaction to hard-line ECB seems too complacent …
9th December 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … All eyes on the ECB …
8th December 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bunds look more vulnerable than Treasuries …
7th December 2011
The US and European business cycles have become highly synchronised in recent decades. But this does not preclude significant economic divergence in response to major structural events. The last of these was German reunification. (See Chart 1.) The next …
6th December 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the US labour market likely to ruffle Treasuries? …
The sharp drop in the US unemployment rate reported on Friday barely ruffled Treasuries. A few more months of such rosy news on the labour market would probably elicit a less sanguine response in the bond market. But we are sceptical the unemployment rate …
5th December 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … ECB set to lower interest rates again …
Growing stresses in the banking system fuelled by an escalation of the euro-zone crisis prompted the major central banks to announce measures aimed at enhancing their capacity to provide liquidity support at the end of November. Coupled with renewed …
2nd December 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Little upside for the euro from a grand rescue plan …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Enhanced central bank liquidity support is not a game changer …
1st December 2011
We have reviewed our key market forecasts in light of a change to our assumption about the timing of an EMU break-up. The new numbers are presented in the table on the next page. There are four main changes. First, we expect the euro to fall more quickly …
30th November 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Chancellor sticks to his guns …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Are UK gilts really a safer haven than German bunds? …
29th November 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … All eyes on Spanish and Italian bond auctions …
28th November 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German Bunds likely to remain under pressure …
25th November 2011
Germany is caught between a rock and a hard place. If she rides to the rescue of her neighbours, she will undermine her own credit standing. If she chooses not to, the euro-zone will probably collapse. This unsavoury dilemma had already led to us to …
24th November 2011
