Filtered by Subscriptions: Global Economics Use setting Global Economics
The global manufacturing PMI held broadly steady in May as a sharp drop in India’s survey was offset by rises in other major economies whose recoveries appear to be continuing unabated. Meanwhile, goods shortages are exerting upward pressure on prices, …
1st June 2021
There are signs that countries whose rollouts are advanced have hit something of a limit, with the remaining population now reluctant to be vaccinated. But this will not necessarily prevent economies reopening once the vulnerable are vaccinated. Potential …
28th May 2021
The further rise in real trade in March suggests that external demand continued to recover, even as capacity constraints related to shipping were intensifying. And while shipping costs have risen and delays worsened in the weeks since these data were …
26th May 2021
The flash PMIs for May suggest that the recovery is well underway in those economies that are now on top of the virus. However, supply is still struggling to keep up with surging demand. And as well as exerting upward pressure on prices, there are some …
21st May 2021
While pay growth has risen across the developed economies, in several cases this reflects reduced hours or the fact that a disproportionate number of low paid workers have lost their jobs. There are clear signs of labour shortages in the US, but for now …
20th May 2021
Near-term inflationary pressures appear to be building. Some of this reflects factors that are likely to be only temporary, such as the “reopening inflation” associated with the easing of virus-related restrictions. We also think the broad-based rally in …
17th May 2021
We think that the broad-based rally in commodity prices will go into reverse later this year, so the upward pressure on inflation in advanced economies should be temporary. But there is a clear risk of a more sustained pick-up in inflation, especially if …
12th May 2021
Our Mobility Trackers suggest that global economic activity has continued to pick up and this positive trend should continue as vaccination programmes gather pace and there is a more widespread lifting of restrictions. That said, the surge in new cases in …
10th May 2021
In this Update , we outline the key data that will help us gauge the evolution of inflationary pressure in advanced economies as they open up. Pandemic-related distortions mean that it is particularly important to understand the detail to distinguish …
5th May 2021
The rise in the global manufacturing PMI suggests that the strong recovery in industrial production continued in April, but supply constraints are continuing to push up prices around the world. While the IHS Markit surveys are yet to provide evidence that …
4th May 2021
Policy stimulus and tolerance of inflation by central banks may lead to higher inflation in some G7 countries in the coming years. Given the parallels with the run-up to the high-inflation era of the 1970s, it is natural to be worried about history …
29th April 2021
Income support and limits on spending had already led households in advanced economies to build up almost $3.5tn in extra cash by the end of 2020, equating to 7.6% of GDP. And the stockpile of these supranormal savings will continue to grow in 2021. We …
26th April 2021
The blockage of the Suez Canal by the Ever Given container ship, which ran aground exactly one month ago, has had limited effects on shipping congestion and container freight rates worldwide. Meanwhile, data released today showed that world goods trade …
23rd April 2021
The advanced economy flash PMIs for April painted a positive picture, albeit with recoveries in the US and UK seemingly far outpacing those in the euro-zone and Japan as restrictions were relaxed in the former two economies. Input prices are still rising …
Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – A rise in virus cases and some setbacks to vaccination programmes have pushed back the recoveries in some countries somewhat, but we still expect strong global growth of over 6% this year. The US will continue to …
The world economy lost considerable momentum in the first quarter as resurgences of the virus and tighter lockdown measures weighed on activity. The lesson from Q4 last year was that households and businesses have adapted to lockdown measures to a …
16th April 2021
A divergence between strong surveys and weak industrial ‘hard’ data, mainly in the euro-zone, has again raised questions about how to interpret the business surveys. There are several reasons why survey indices of output have overstated the actual …
13th April 2021
Mobility data have weakened in many parts of the world in recent weeks as virus numbers either remain high or continue to climb, risking restrictions staying in place for even longer. The latest data out of Israel suggest that its speedy vaccine rollout …
9th April 2021
While Asian goods exports have fared better than those from the rest of the world and especially those from advanced economies over the past year, this performance gap should narrow as economies reopen. Global goods trade continued its strong recovery at …
8th April 2021
The rise in March’s global manufacturing PMI suggested that world industrial production continued to recover. But the headline index masked a divergence at the country level, with sizeable gains in advanced economies offsetting small falls in major EMs. …
1st April 2021
Mandates have spread into equality, climate change and house prices in recent months Implications are mixed; Fed lower for longer, but RBNZ may need to hike sooner On average, mission creep points to more variable and probably higher future inflation …
29th March 2021
Data from the CPB Netherlands Bureau suggested that world trade had shrugged off rising shipping costs up to January, with real goods trade rising by 2.5% m/m. The outlook is broadly positive. But if the grounding of the huge container ship in the Suez …
25th March 2021
March’s advanced economy PMIs painted a positive picture, with headline indices typically now well into expansionary territory. Supply shortages are boosting prices and constraining output to some extent, especially in the US. And the euro-zone PMI is …
24th March 2021
Our Mobility Trackers suggest that the recent rise in coronavirus infections and associated restrictions are weighing on activity in Latin America, emerging Europe and the euro-zone. In contrast, mobility in the US has continued to recover as restrictions …
23rd March 2021
Table of Key Forecasts Overview – Inflation will rise sharply in every major economy in the months ahead, driven by a rebound in energy inflation, tax changes, and supply shortages. On average, CPI inflation in the advanced economies looks set to rise …
19th March 2021
The recent pick-up in consumer spending in DMs has been characterised by a sharp rise in spending on goods. The next leg of the recovery will be focused on services as restrictions are removed. Spending on consumer goods is likely to slow, implying weaker …
17th March 2021
Both the hard data and more timely surveys imply that the major advanced economies have had a mixed start to the year. The US has fared particularly well, thanks to easing pandemic-related restrictions and strong fiscal stimulus. Most notably, $600 …
11th March 2021
The global semiconductor shortage appears to be largely the result of a strong revival in demand for goods including consumer electronics rather than pandemic-related supply disruptions. It should generally have limited implications for GDP, but it could …
9th March 2021
While it is still early days, the ingredients for a sustained pick-up in inflation over the next few years seem to be falling into place in the US. It is a different picture in other developed economies; indeed, we still think that medium-term inflation …
2nd March 2021
February’s global manufacturing PMI survey painted a positive picture, implying that output growth has continued to accelerate outside China and that employment is picking up. Supply shortages are boosting input prices, especially in DMs, but this …
1st March 2021
While the latest signs are that capacity constraints in global shipping are continuing to bite, we expect these to subside over the course of the year. Indeed, as vaccine rollouts allow economies to reopen, the pace of the recovery in goods trade should …
26th February 2021
If passed in full, President Biden’s $1.9tn American Rescue Plan would constitute a fiscal stimulus worth 1.4% of global GDP, coming hot off the heels of the $900bn deal struck in December. While a boon for the US economy, we think that the economic …
24th February 2021
With vaccines improving the economic outlook and labour market data surprising to the upside, we have revised down our unemployment forecasts for almost all major economies. But wider measures of labour market slack imply a growing divergence by region. …
23rd February 2021
The batch of flash PMIs for February suggest that shipping constraints and some goods shortages are raising costs for manufacturers. There are some signs that these cost pressures are being passed on to consumers. Outside of the US, price pressures in …
19th February 2021
Taken alone, prolonged restrictions on international travel would do little to hinder the global recovery since overseas tourism is a small share of world GDP and some of the lost spending would be made up. But the aggregate masks a wide range of effects. …
18th February 2021
While new COVID-19 infections have dropped, our Mobility Trackers have shown only a slight pick-up in activity as tight restrictions remain in place in many economies. Vaccine rollouts have been slow in the euro-zone and most EMs, but much faster in the …
One legacy of the pandemic is a huge expansion in central banks’ balance sheets. Fears that this will automatically boost inflation are overdone. So, too, are worries that central banks will provoke a destabilising rise in bond yields by selling their …
17th February 2021
When analysing the effect of COVID-19 on business balance sheets, most attention is given to the surge in debt. But this ignores the fact that non-financial firms in DMs have built up a pile of excess cash worth $1.6tn (4% of GDP), so their balance sheets …
10th February 2021
Global growth slowed throughout the fourth quarter and most economies entered the new year on a weak footing. We have limited hard data for 2021 so far, but timely surveys and our high-frequency Mobility Trackers are generally consistent with a further …
One threat to economic recoveries this year is that governments withdraw their generous fiscal support too quickly. So far, that threat does not seem to be an imminent one. That said, the level of fiscal support is set to remain more generous in the US …
9th February 2021
Taper talk is premature and purchases typically won’t slow until next year There is absolutely no rush for central banks to shrink their balance sheets But when they do, the process will require some creative thinking Talk of tapering in recent weeks has …
4th February 2021
Despite some dire public health situations, GDP outturns from the raft of recently released data have surprised on the upside in Q4. While some of the strength was due to industrial and construction sectors, the surprise lay in the resilience of some …
3rd February 2021
The volatility caused by retail investors co-ordinated on the r/Wallstreetbets forum does not pose a direct threat to the global economy, but it does illustrate some of the financial vulnerabilities that can stem from ultra-loose monetary and fiscal …
1st February 2021
The global manufacturing PMI survey for January suggests that the industrial recovery lost a bit of steam at the start of the year. It also provided some evidence that, in addition to lengthening supplier delivery times, supply-chain disruptions and …
In this Update , we take stock of the key elections that are scheduled around the world in the coming year and discuss the implications for economic policy. While elections in advanced economies are unlikely to produce any decisive changes in direction, …
We expect household incomes to rise in most countries this year as easing restrictions allow people to get back to work. The outlook for incomes is brightest in North America, particularly given the likelihood of further fiscal transfers in the US. But …
28th January 2021
Another increase in world trade in November meant that it exceeded its pre-pandemic level, though exports remained depressed in the US and emerging Europe. Since November, container freight rates have surged, reflecting shipping supply struggling to cope …
26th January 2021
The flash PMIs for January suggest that the US economy shrugged off containment measures at the start of 2021, but that restrictions did indeed weigh on activity elsewhere in DMs. The surveys also provide some evidence that supply shortages are exerting …
22nd January 2021
The surge in global shipping costs over the past six months is likely to be short-lived and several factors will dampen the full pass-through to consumer prices. Even so, it adds to a growing list of developments that point to a rise in inflation over the …
19th January 2021
Our COVID Mobility Trackers indicate that activity weakened towards the end of Q4, and data up to mid-January suggest that it took another leg down at the start of 2021. With countries still in the early stages of their vaccination rollouts, we are …
18th January 2021
