Filtered by Subscriptions: Global Economics Use setting Global Economics
The financial crisis has proved to be even worse than we had feared. The bank recapitalisation plans and other measures announced in recent days should avert a complete meltdown. Nonetheless, the financial and economic imbalances have taken years to build …
16th October 2008
Today’s coordinated half-point rate cuts from all the major central banks (except Japan, where rates were already just 0.5%) are clearly welcome and may provide a temporary boost to confidence. But we believe that the banks still have a lot more work to …
8th October 2008
We expect inflation of 4% or below in China next year, but mounting core pressures mean that Russia is likely to suffer double-digit inflation for the rest of this decade. But the policy response may not differ dramatically. … Will the BRICs win the …
20th August 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Whatever happened to decoupling? …
14th August 2008
Lower oil prices have provided a little support to equity markets in the last few days, but it is worth noting that agricultural commodities have been dropping back too. The scene is being set for some sharp falls in headline inflation rates going into …
18th July 2008
The world’s major economies are being battered to varying degrees by a “perfect storm” of soaring commodity prices, the credit crunch, and collapsing housing markets. … Inflation fears to fade, credit problems to persist (Q3 …
10th July 2008
The resurgence of global inflation has raised fears of a return to the “stagflation” of the 1970s. However, inflation is still very low by those standards and the inflation environment is fundamentally different. … Back to the 1970's? (Q2 …
23rd June 2008
The Bank of England’s Financial Stability Report, published this morning, suggests that the worst of the global financial crisis may now be over. The immediate threat of a full-blown meltdown has indeed been avoided. But for the wider economies …
1st May 2008
Developments in world trade are one indication of the ability of the global economy to “decouple” from the recession in the US. The most recent numbers are fairly reassuring. We expect the pace of world trade growth to ease to around 3% in 2008, from …
24th April 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Why the US should avoid a Japan-style lost decade …
17th April 2008
The sub-prime crisis in US financial markets does not yet appear to have turned the dollar into a subprime currency. The latest IMF data show that despite the weakness of the dollar over several years, the proportion of central bank reserves held in the …
15th April 2008
Prompt action by central banks, led by the US Fed, appears to have averted the immediate threat of a meltdown in the financial sector. The IMF has recently estimated potential losses related to the US sub-prime crisis at close to $1,000bn. This figure is …
10th April 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … A closer look at the IMF's numbers …
9th April 2008
Headline inflation has surged again in almost all major economies. However, inflation excluding food and energy remains subdued. While this is not a good reason for complacency, it does suggest that headline rates will fall sharply over the next year or …
27th March 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What is a recession? …
6th March 2008
The contrasting monetary polices being pursued by the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) are a good illustration of why only countries with strong trade and financial links to the US necessarily have to follow the Fed in cutting rates. …
5th March 2008
Signs that the downturn in the US is now having a marked impact on Canada prompted the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates by a bigger 50 basis points today, to 3.5%. (See Chart.) Moreover, the admission in the accompanying statement that “further …
4th March 2008
Chinese inflation is now at its highest in 11 years, and there seems little prospect of it falling much in the next couple of months. This has set alarm bells ringing in countries that have grown accustomed to cheap Chinese imports helping to keep a lid …
21st February 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What to make of the IMF's new numbers …
29th January 2008
Conditions in credit markets have improved in many respects, but the fog is clearing to reveal a fundamentally weak global economy. Indeed, the financial markets are rushing to price in a full-blown recession in the US and significant contagion to the …
23rd January 2008
Some commentators have suggested that the positive wealth effect from a possible recovery in equity markets might go a long way towards offsetting the negative impact of lower house prices. This would be particularly welcome for the US and UK economies. …
8th January 2008
The recent surge in headline inflation in many economies has raised fears of “stagflation” – a combination of rapid price increases and weak or even negative growth in economic activity. But we are not as worried as some, for three reasons. … …
21st December 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will higher inflation prevent further rate cuts? …
18th December 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Surge in food price inflation unlikely to last …
17th December 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Central banks ease the liquidity crisis, but problems go deeper …
12th December 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Two lessons from the recent dip in oil prices …
4th December 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What would the end of GCC pegs mean for the dollar? …
16th November 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How much should we worry about $100 oil? …
8th November 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … China sinks the dollar (again). …
7th November 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the credit crisis getting worse? …
6th November 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Canadian dollar could still go higher …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Change in Fed tone won't prevent further dollar weakness. …
1st November 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US slowdown only one of several risks (Q4 07) …
23rd October 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What to make of the bull market in shipping …
11th October 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Main risks to copper prices lie on the downside …
10th October 2007
The global contagion from the sub-prime crisis in the US has created a dilemma for central banks. On the one hand, the turmoil in the financial markets argues for lower interest rates. But on the other, there are a host of medium-term pressures that …
3rd October 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is there a bubble in emerging markets? …
25th September 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Dollar to fall regardless of Saudi (in)action on peg …
21st September 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Lessons from LTCM (and a good word for the BoE) …
10th September 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will other Banks hike rates even when the Fed is cutting? …
3rd September 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US beating the euro-zone in crisis management …
30th August 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How will investors react to hedge fund losses? …
24th August 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The fall-out from the Fed: big deal or damp squib? …
20th August 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Global equities back at fair value, but returns may still disappoint …
16th August 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Seven reasons not to panic …
13th August 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What next for global markets? …
10th August 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Investors may still over-estimate diversification benefits …
6th August 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How much should we worry about record oil prices? …
2nd August 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will increased market volatility keep central banks on hold? …
1st August 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Three reasons to fear worse to come …
27th July 2007
