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Global economic growth will slow to its weakest pace since the financial crisis over the next eighteen months. Previous policy tightening has yet to take its full toll on activity in the United States, China’s stimulus seems too modest to prompt a strong …
18th June 2019
Wage growth has strengthened in several advanced economies despite the global economic slowdown. But, outside the UK, we do not expect this to prevent monetary policy loosening. Strong productivity growth has stopped higher wages stoking inflation in the …
Oil prices have fallen close to our end-year forecast and should drag on inflation during the rest of 2019. Admittedly, the risks to our oil price forecast are skewed to the upside. But even a surge in oil prices would have small effects on core inflation …
14th June 2019
The past month has seen a significant change in tone from the world’s major central banks and in expectations of their policies. As fears over trade tensions have mounted and economic data have brought little evidence of the rebound in growth that many …
13th June 2019
We have now incorporated an escalation in the US-China trade war into our global economic forecasts. As it happens, we think that the negative impact on global GDP growth will be relatively contained, so it has not led to a major downward revision to our …
10th June 2019
We have now incorporated a further escalation in the US-China trade war into our baseline forecasts. On its own, this is unlikely to have a major impact on global GDP growth. But combined with previous measures it means that the trade war is likely to …
6th June 2019
The escalation of trade tensions is having much bigger effects on financial markets and oil prices than on real economic performance at the global level. That said, there is clear evidence that global growth has slowed following a solid start to the year. …
The Fed’s conference this week on monetary policy strategy has put central banks’ frameworks back in the spotlight. But even the more radical options being discussed, such as price level targets, are essentially just tweaks to the existing framework. In …
4th June 2019
The direct effects of the trade war on global GDP have so far probably been negligible. The indirect impact, via weaker confidence and investment, has been bigger. But we estimate that even this accounts for just a quarter of the slowdown in global growth …
3rd June 2019
May’s drop in the global manufacturing PMI to below the “no change” level of 50 suggests that the industrial downturn has further to run, with the once resilient US economy succumbing to the malaise. … Global industry now in …
Prime Minister Modi’s BJP has secured another stunning victory in India’s general election. The key priority for Mr Modi in his second term should be to implement reforms to develop the manufacturing sector, which would boost potential GDP growth while …
30th May 2019
The recent election results from India, Australia and the European Union won’t have a significant impact on economic policy in the near term. However, upcoming elections in Turkey and Argentina may cause greater market upheaval given their fragile …
28th May 2019
World trade volumes contracted again in Q1. But just as trade tensions between the US and China are ratcheting up again, there are a few signs that the slowdown in world trade may be bottoming out. … Tentative signs of stabilisation in world …
24th May 2019
The resignation of the British Prime Minister, Theresa May, supports our recent view that the chances of a Brexitdeal have fallen and that the chances of another delay and a no deal Brexit have risen. While the financialmarkets have probably already …
After global GDP was stronger than expected in Q1, the continued weakness in the latest business surveys among advanced economies suggests that the world economy will lose steam in the second quarter. … Weak PMIs add to evidence of a slowdown in …
23rd May 2019
The Coalition government’s surprise victory in the Australian federal election won’t make much of a difference for fiscal policy in the near-term but will result in smaller surpluses beyond 2022. It also improves the outlook for the housing market and …
20th May 2019
Global GDP growth in the first quarter was stronger than the January and February data had initially ledus to fear, but we do not think that this marks a turnaround in the fortunes of the world economy.Recoveries in several EMs are fragile, and the …
17th May 2019
• Structural headwinds will weigh on China’s growth rate over the coming decade. If well managed, this slowdown will be gradual. But a more abrupt adjustment shouldn’t be ruled out. We see two main threats – political instability that disrupts economic …
16th May 2019
Global GDP growth in the first quarter was stronger than the January and February data had initially led us to fear, but we do not think that this marks a turnaround in the fortunes of the world economy. Recoveries in several EMs are fragile, and the …
President Trump’s claim that the PBOC will loosen policy in the months ahead may prove accurate, but this will be a justified response to a weaker economy and not a direct retort to tariffs. And while the Fed is likely to deliver rate cuts in time, this …
15th May 2019
This Databank provides our forecasts out to 2038 for twenty major global economies, covering key macroeconomic and financial market variables. Click on the Excel spreadsheet link below to download the forecasts. … Global …
13th May 2019
This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Saudi Arabia’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product, wages, the exchange rate and interest rates. …
While the major advanced economy central banks have made no significant policy changes in recent weeks, a key theme has been a continued shift in their forward guidance to imply that interest rates will stay lower for longer. … Tweaks to forward guidance …
10th May 2019
We think that the direct effects of President Trump’s threatened tariff hikes could reduce Chinese GDP by up to 0.5%* and that the associated retaliation would have only a marginal direct impact on the US. The effects on business confidence and financial …
8th May 2019
This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for France’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product, wages, the exchange rate and interest rates. … …
We think that the direct effects of President Trump’s threatened tariff hikes could reduce Chinese GDP by up to 0.4% and that the associated retaliation would have only a marginal direct impact on the US. The effects on business confidence and financial …
This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Germany’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product, wages, the exchange rate and interest rates. … …
This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for the Euro-zone economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product, wages, the exchange rate and interest rates. … …
7th May 2019
This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for the UK economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product, wages, the exchange rate and interest rates. … United …
This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Italy’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product, wages, the exchange rate and interest rates. … …
“Hard” activity data from earlier in the year and a range of business surveys had pointed to a further slowdown in the world economy in the first quarter, but global GDP growth looks to have surprised on the upside. (See Chart 1.) China’s economy fared …
3rd May 2019
A surge in support for populist parties in European parliamentary elections later this month should have little bearing on economic policy in the near term. After all, moderate parties are still likely to control a majority of seats, and parliament’s …
This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Turkey’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product, wages, the exchange rate and interest rates. … …
While composite PMIs have been overstating the weakness of overall economic activity in recent months, manufacturing PMIs have generally maintained a better relationship with the “hard” industrial data. So, the further fall in the global manufacturing PMI …
2nd May 2019
The “hard” data compiled by statistical agencies and policymakers have generally been rather better in advanced economies in the past month or so than the weaker surveys of economic activity. While this reassures us that the global economy is not …
This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Indonesia’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product, wages, the exchange rate and interest rates. … …
This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Russia’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product, wages, the exchange rate and interest rates. … …
1st May 2019
Labor has pledged sizeable tax hikes that probably won’t be offset by higher expenditure, which means that fiscal policy will almost certainly be tighter in Australia under a Labor government than under the Coalition. However, a lot will depend on whether …
29th April 2019
This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for India’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product, wages, the exchange rate and interest rates. … …
After a partial rebound at the start of the year, world trade volumes fell again in February – the fourth drop in six months. They look to have recovered a bit in March, and export orders in parts of Asia have picked up. But, overall, the evidence still …
26th April 2019
This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for South Africa’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product, wages, the exchange rate and interest rates. …
While we still think that this year’s rise in oil prices will soon go into reverse, we have bumped up our end-year forecast. The now smaller drop in oil prices we’re expecting doesn’t change the picture much at the global level, but at the margin it is …
24th April 2019
Hopes for an imminent revival of global growth were brought back down to earth by the latest batch of surveys. Falls in the US and euro-zone composite PMIs suggest that it’s too soon to call a global recovery. … Soft PMIs dampen optimism about a global …
18th April 2019
We expect the recent weakness of global growth to persist for much longer than is commonly assumed. Previous policy tightening has yet to take its full toll on activity in the US and China’s stimulus seems too modest to prompt a sustained and significant …
This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Korea’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product, wages, the exchange rate and interest rates. … …
The two key economic challenges facing President Joko Widodo in his second term are boosting GDP growth and reducing Indonesia’s external vulnerabilities. We don’t think he will succeed in either. … Indonesia: Jokowi will struggle to revive …
17th April 2019
This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Argentina’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product, wages, the exchange rate and interest rates. … …
16th April 2019
This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Mexico’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product, wages, the exchange rate and interest rates. … …
