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Peru’s central bank will probably keep interest rates on hold later today (23:00 GMT) We expect Korean trade data to show a continued pickup in global demand Consumer confidence in the US may have declined this month (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes The …
10th December 2020
We think that the inverse relationship between the dollar and risk appetite will remain strong over the next couple of years, against a backdrop of low and stable interest rates. We expect that the dollar will weaken further and risky assets continue to …
We expect the ECB to extend and increase the PEPP and announce more TLTROs (12.45 GMT) We think US core CPI inflation rose only a little in November (08.30 GMT) Read our highest-conviction macro and financial market forecasts on our dedicated new page Key …
9th December 2020
Headline consumer price inflation in China probably fell to its lowest since 2010 … … but only due to falling pork prices – core inflation likely to have risen (01.30 GMT) Read our highest-conviction macro and financial market forecasts on our dedicated …
8th December 2020
US fiscal policy in the spotlight with a bipartisan deal on the table We think that South Africa’s economy grew by around 10% q/q in Q3 (09.30 GMT) Read our highest-conviction macro and financial market forecasts on our dedicated new page Key Market …
7th December 2020
We think UK October GDP data will show the recovery stalled prior to lockdowns (Thu.) We expect the ECB to announce an extension to pandemic stimulus measures (Thu.) US fiscal negotiations in the spotlight again next week, with another relief deal on the …
4th December 2020
New restrictions probably meant a smaller rise in November’s non-farm payrolls (13.30 GMT) An uptick in Russia’s inflation might take further rate cuts off the table for now (16.00 GMT) Ireland’s and Greece’s Q3 GDP data likely to show rebounds, but …
3rd December 2020
Brazil GDP data likely to show the economy was only 3.5% smaller than pre-virus in Q3 We think that the US ISM services index dropped back in November (14.45 GMT) Read our highest-conviction macro and financial market forecasts on our dedicated new page …
2nd December 2020
The unemployment rate in the euro-zone probably edged up in October (10.00 GMT) We expect the November ADP report to show US employment growth slowing (13.15 GMT) Read our highest-conviction macro and financial market forecasts on our dedicated new page …
1st December 2020
The RBA looks set to leave monetary policy on hold tomorrow (03.30 GMT) We think Swiss and Canadian GDP rebounded strongly in Q3 The US ISM Manufacturing Index probably fell in November (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes The euro has risen to its highest level …
30th November 2020
We expect Australia’s central bank to keep policy unchanged (Tuesday) We think that Brazil’s economy rebounded strongly in Q3 (Thursday) Spread of COVID-19 probably meant smaller gains in November’s non-farm payrolls (Friday) Key Market Themes Given this …
27th November 2020
Lighter UK restrictions from 2 nd December unlikely to improve economic outlook much Euro-zone economic sentiment indicator probably fell in November (10.00 GMT) ECB minutes reiterate that more easing is likely in December Key Market Themes Although this …
26th November 2020
Minutes from the ECB could indicate its plans for the upcoming December meeting … … while we expect the Riksbank will increase the size of its QE programme (08.30 GMT) US markets are closed tomorrow for the Thanksgiving Day holiday Key Market Themes We …
25th November 2020
The UK’s OBR may revise down its economic forecasts (13.00 GMT) US durable goods orders probably continued to recover in October… (13.30 GMT) … but we suspect consumption didn’t hold up quite as well (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes Although the US dollar …
24th November 2020
We think Germany’s Ifo business climate indicator fell in November (09:00 GMT) US consumer confidence may have declined further this month as well (15:00 GMT) Mid-month data likely to show inflation in Brazil and Mexico around 4% Key Market Themes We …
23rd November 2020
We have revised up our forecast for the euro against the US dollar, as we expect that conditions driving the euro’s appreciation will persist over the next few years despite near-term headwinds. The euro has appreciated more than 10% against the greenback …
20th November 2020
More easing likely from central banks of Indonesia and the Philippines after rate cuts today We think that UK retail sales growth slowed prior to November’s lockdown (07.00 GMT) EZ consumer confidence probably fell this month (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes …
19th November 2020
US initial jobless claims probably continued their gradual decline last week (13.30 GMT) We think Turkey’s central bank will appease investors with a 450bp rate hike (11.00 GMT)… …but expect central banks in Indonesia and the Philippines to cut rates …
18th November 2020
We suspect that UK CPI inflation remained around 0.5% in October (07.00 GMT) GDP data likely to show Chile’s economy on the road to recovery (11.30 GMT) US housing starts probably rose again in October (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes Long-term inflation …
17th November 2020
GDP data likely to show that Norway’s economy bounced back strongly in Q3 (07:00 GMT) We expect Hungary’s central bank to leave its policy rate unchanged (13:00 GMT) US retail sales probably made further gains in October (13:30 GMT) Key Market Themes …
16th November 2020
We think that Japan’s GDP rebounded more strongly than consensus expects (Sun.) US retail sales and industrial production will probably show further gains in October (Tue.) We expect Turkey’s central bank to hike rates in order to stabilise the lira …
13th November 2020
UK GDP growth probably slowed in September (07.00 GMT) We think policymakers in Egypt and Peru will keep interest rates on hold… … but we expect Mexico’s central bank to cut rates (19.00 GMT) Key Market Themes While emerging market (EM) currencies have …
11th November 2020
We think that the RBNZ will pave the way for negative rates next year (01.00 GMT) Korea’s export values probably rose further above their pre-crisis levels in early November ECB’s Forum may reveal policymakers’ thinking about the impact of an early …
10th November 2020
All major news outlets have called the US presidential election for Joe Biden Chinese inflation for October may show a significant decline (01:30 GMT) We think there were significant job losses in the UK in September (07:00 GMT) Key Market Themes Most “ …
9th November 2020
We expect the RBNZ to announce a lending programme to prepare for negative rates (Wed.) UK GDP data will probably show the recovery slowed even before new restrictions (Thu.) We think slowing inflation in India & Mexico will raise prospects of more easing …
6th November 2020
US presidential election hinges on outstanding results in a few key states We doubt that the Fed will announce any major policy changes (19.00 GMT) … … but expect the Bank of England to expand QE, with more to come in 2021 (12.00 GMT) Key Market Themes …
4th November 2020
While the final results are yet to be determined, whoever wins the US presidency probably faces continued gridlock in Congress. That may explain why the moves in markets overall so far have been limited. Admittedly, Treasury yields have fallen as the …
We think that composite PMIs in Spain and Italy fell in October (08.15 & 08.45 GMT) We expect the ISM Services Index to have remained strong in October (15.00 GMT) The results of the US elections are expected on Wednesday Key Market Themes Unlike after …
3rd November 2020
Democrats lead in the polls ahead of Tuesday’s vote Central banks of Australia and Malaysia both likely to provide more policy support Switzerland’s inflation probably remained negative in October (07.30 GMT) Key Market Themes Treasury yields may rise …
2nd November 2020
We think that the Swedish krona will appreciate a little further against the euro and the dollar in 2021, but doubt that it will remain one of the best-performing G10 currencies, as it has been this year. The Swedish krona has been the …
Euro-zone Q3 GDP figures already old news with the risk of another contraction in Q4 rising US personal income likely to have edged lower as fiscal transfers lessened (12:30 GMT) Hong Kong’s economy probably returned to growth for the first time in a year …
29th October 2020
France and Germany to announce further restrictions to activity US GDP probably rose by 30% annualised in Q3, but recovery likely to have slowed since We think that the ECB will signal that more monetary stimulus is coming (12.45 GMT) Key Market Themes …
28th October 2020
South Africa’s inflation probably still near the bottom of central bank target range (09.00 BST) Bank of Canada likely to sound dovish, may outline options if outlook worsens (14.00 BST) Brazil’s central bank will probably keep policy rate at record low …
27th October 2020
External demand probably helped Korea’s economy to rebound in Q3 (Mon., 22.00 GMT) We suspect that US durable goods orders dropped back in September (Tue., 12.30 GMT) Track the spread of COVID-19 and its impact on economies and markets here Key Market …
26th October 2020
US GDP probably rebounded strongly in Q3 (Thursday) We think that the ECB will provide further support for the euro-zone economy (Thursday) China’s leaders will meet to discuss the next Five-Year Plan in the coming week Key Market Themes The fact that …
23rd October 2020
We expect that Turkey’s central bank will its policy rates on hold (12.00 BST) Surge in COVID-19 cases may have weighed on euro-zone consumer confidence (15.00 BST) US Presidential election in focus as Trump and Biden face off in a final debate Key Market …
21st October 2020
We expect Korean trade data to show continued strong demand for electronics (01:00 BST) We think that UK inflation picked up in September (07:00 BST) Canadian retail sales growth probably accelerated a bit in August (13:30 BST) Key Market Themes The past …
20th October 2020
The loan prime rate in China is likely to remain unchanged at 3.85% (09.30 BST) We expect Hungary’s central bank to leave its base policy rate on hold (13.00 BST) Track the spread of COVID-19 and its economic and market impact here Key Market Themes We …
19th October 2020
We are upgrading our already above-consensus forecast for the Canadian dollar, as we expect higher oil prices, stronger-than-expected GDP growth, and favourable interest rate differentials to drive a continued appreciation over the next two years. Those …
Activity data likely to highlight the strength of China’s economic recovery (Mon.) Biden and Trump set to face each other in final Presidential debate (Thu.) October PMIs to shed light on the economic impact of the rise in virus cases in Europe (Fri.) Key …
16th October 2020
Outlook for UK and euro-zone economies worsens as new restrictions are put in place Euro-zone inflation data to shed some light on core rate fall in September (10.00 BST) US retail sales & industrial production likely to confirm that the pace of activity …
15th October 2020
We expect consumer prices in China fell due to lower food prices (02.30 BST) US jobless claims likely to show elevated level of layoffs (13.30 BST) Track the spread of COVID-19 and its economic and market impact here Key Market Themes While the S&P 500 is …
14th October 2020
We think that Singapore’s GDP rebounded strongly in Q3 (01.00 BST) Bank of Korea unlikely to change policy, with second COVID-19 wave fading (02.00 BST) Euro-zone industrial production probably edged up in August (10.00 BST) Key Market Themes Although the …
13th October 2020
We think that China’s trade surplus grew in September (Tuesday) US CPI inflation probably rose in September (Tuesday) US retail sales and industrial production likely to have recovered further last month (Friday) Key Market Themes Investors’ recent …
9th October 2020
We think that UK GDP rose by about 5.0% m/m in August (07.00 BST) Canada’s unemployment rate probably fell below 10% in September (13.30 BST) Brazil’s headline inflation likely to have risen to around 3.2% last month (13.00 BST) Key Market Themes EM Asia …
8th October 2020
We have revised up our already-bullish forecasts for the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar over the next few years, to reflect changes to our outlook for the Chinese renminbi. Crucially, though, this view hinges on …
Industrial production in Germany probably increased in August (07.00 BST) The Fed’s September minutes may clarify its forward guidance (19.00 BST) We expect Poland’s central bank to leave its policy rate on hold Key Market Themes If the recent rise in the …
6th October 2020
We expect a surprise rate cut from Australia’s central bank to 0.10% (01.30 BST) The US trade deficit probably grew in August (13.30 BST) Russia’s inflation may have ticked up in September (17.00 BST) Key Market Themes The resilience of the US stock …
5th October 2020
We expect the RBA to cut its policy rate and launch a second round of QE (Tuesday) The US trade deficit probably widened further (Tuesday) We think that UK GDP rose by around 5.0% in August (Friday) Key Market Themes The negative reaction in equity …
2nd October 2020
Euro-zone core inflation probably fell in September (11:00 BST) Brazil’s industrial production data likely to show the country’s recovery is slowing (13:00 BST) We think that US non-farm payrolls rose by about 800,000 in September (13:30 BST) Key Market …
1st October 2020
