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We expect the Turkish lira to remain among the worst-performing currencies over the next two years, as political pressures, high inflation, and a vulnerable external position continue to weigh on the currency. The lira has been the worst-performing …
22nd October 2021
Flash composite PMIs for the euro-zone and the UK probably dropped back in October We expect the central bank of Russia to hike its policy rate by 50bp, to 7.25% (11.30 BST) Inflation in Mexico likely to have stayed above target in mid-October (12.00 BST) …
21st October 2021
UK public borrowing may have fallen by more than expected in September (07.00 BST) We anticipate a 100bp rate cut from Turkey’s central bank (12.00 BST) Read our highest conviction macroeconomic forecasts and their market implications here Key Market …
20th October 2021
We expect Indonesia’s central bank to leave rates on hold tomorrow... (08.20 BST) ... while Hungary’s may deliver a 15bp hike (13.00 BST) Read our highest conviction macroeconomic forecasts and their market implications here Key Market Themes Rather than …
18th October 2021
The US dollar seems set to end the week lower against most currencies, as “risky” assets have rallied and US Treasury yields have edged down a bit. This fall back in the dollar and US yields is somewhat surprising in light of the stronger-than-expected …
15th October 2021
China’s September activity data may point to further economic slowdown (Mon.) We think US industrial production fell sharply in September (Mon.) Turkey’s central bank will probably cut its policy rate by 100bp (Thu.) Key Market Themes We doubt that …
We doubt that the direct effects of the tapering of the Fed’s asset purchases will have much of an impact on the US dollar, and think that other factors will be more important in pushing the greenback higher. Since the September FOMC meeting , the latest …
Sacking of MPC members at Turkey’s central bank paves the way for more loosening A drop in car sales may have hit growth in US retail sales last month (13.30 BST) We think that US consumer confidence remained subdued in early October (15.00 BST) Key …
14th October 2021
Although we wouldn’t be surprised if energy prices remained elevated for a while, we still think they will fall back over the next year, weighing on the currencies of net energy exporters. The rally in energy prices, particularly since the end of August, …
FOMC minutes may shed more light on the Fed’s tapering plans (Wed. 19.00 BST) We expect Chile’s central bank to hike its policy rate by 100bp (Wed. 22.00 BST) China’s producer price inflation probably rose to a record high last month (Thu. 02.30 BST) Key …
13th October 2021
The US dollar has rallied to its strongest level since November 2020, and we think it will remain strong on the back of the Fed’s hawkish shift and ongoing uncertainty around the global recovery. While it has fallen back a little this week, on a …
11th October 2021
Bank of Korea probably on hold this week, but could signal November rate hike UK unemployment rate likely to have fallen in August (07.00 BST) JOLTS & NFIB surveys may provide further evidence of labour shortages in the US Key Market Themes We expect the …
Shortages and rise in energy prices probably boosted US CPI inflation in September (Wed.) China’s producer price inflation may have hit an all-time high last month (Thu.) We think US retail sales were dragged down by a plunge in auto sales in September …
8th October 2021
Despite the rise in US Treasury yields this week, the US dollar reversed some of its recent gains after today’s labour market data were somewhat weaker than expected . But given strong wage growth, we doubt this will alter the Fed’s policy path. Indeed, …
Although the krone has rallied this year on the back of high energy prices and the expectation of tighter monetary policy, we do not expect this to continue. We think slowing global growth and normalising energy prices will work against the krone over the …
7th October 2021
We expect a 50bp rate hike from Peru’s central bank (00.00 BST) Inflation in Brazil probably rose again in September (13.00 BST) US non-farm payrolls likely to have increased by around 500,000 last month (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes Emerging market (EM) …
We expect the RBNZ to hike rates by 25bp, after delaying in August (02.00 BST) We think euro-zone retail sales will remain unchanged (10.00 BST) We expect Poland’s central bank to keep rates on hold despite rising inflation Key Market Themes The longer …
5th October 2021
RBA likely to keep its policy settings unchanged (04.30 BST) Romania’s central bank may lay the foundations for a rate hike next month US ISM services index probably fell again in September (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes Even if concerns about potential …
4th October 2021
In another volatile week, the US dollar continued to appreciate against most other currencies, reaching its strongest level, in aggregate, since last November. In part, the greenback’s rally may have been driven by month- and quarter-end flows, and it has …
1st October 2021
RBNZ likely to hike its policy rate by 25bp (Wednesday) Germany’s industrial production probably faltered in August (Thursday) We think that US non-farm payrolls rose by around 500,000 last month (Friday) Key Market Themes We think that three recent …
We think that the ongoing slowdown in global economic growth points to continued dollar strength, which suggests to us that there is significant upside risk to our already-bullish dollar forecast. Historically, the US dollar has tended to appreciate in …
We think euro-zone inflation picked up this month to its highest level since 2008 (10.00 BST) US real consumption probably rose slightly in August... (13.30 BST) ... but supply shortages may have weighed on the ISM index in September (15.00 BST) Key …
30th September 2021
We think industrial production in Japan increased last month (00.50 BST) China’s PMI data will probably point to further loss of momentum in September (02.00 BST) Central banks in Czechia, Mexico, and Colombia likely to hike rates Key Market Themes …
29th September 2021
Speeches from Fed officials could give details on what drove hawkish shift in rate projections Australia’s retail sales probably fell by around 2.5% m/m in August (02.30 BST) Read our new CE Spotlight series for an in-depth look at the global inflation …
27th September 2021
In a choppy week dominated by some surprising central bank announcements and the ongoing uncertainty around China’s property sector, the US dollar continued to make some headway, especially against emerging market currencies. The FOMC delivered another …
24th September 2021
US House of Representatives may vote on bipartisan infrastructure bill Lengthy coalition negotiations likely to follow German elections (Sunday) We think the US ISM manufacturing index dropped back in September (Friday) Key Market Themes We expect the …
We think that the renminbi’s period of remarkable calm will end before long, and that it will depreciate against the US dollar over the next few months. This year, the USD/CNY exchange rate has not traded more than ~2% away from where it was at the start …
We expect Germany’s Ifo index to have declined again in September (09.00 BST) Brazil’s inflation probably rose to around 10% in the first half of September (13.00 BST) Read our latest reports on Evergrande’s collapse and its macro & market implications …
23rd September 2021
The FOMC’s latest “dot plot” is likely to be the focus of today’s announcement We expect Norges Bank to be the first G10 central bank to hike rates … (09.00 BST) … and the Bank of England to keep rates and asset purchases unchanged (12.00 BST) Key Market …
22nd September 2021
Probably too soon for a Fed tapering announcement (19.00 BST) China’s loan prime rate (LPR) likely to be steady for now, but to fall before long (02.30 BST) We expect Brazil’s central bank to hike its policy rate by 100bp (22.00 BST) Key Market Themes …
21st September 2021
We think that UK public sector net borrowing remained elevated in August (07.00 BST) Policymakers in Sweden look likely to leave rates on hold … (08.30 BST) … but we expect Hungary’s central bank to hike its policy rate by another 30bp (13.00 BST) Key …
20th September 2021
The dollar has risen against most currencies as markets have remained quiet ahead of next week’s monetary policy announcements. In addition to the FOMC, more than a dozen central banks in developed and emerging market economies will meet during a week …
17th September 2021
Probably too soon for the Fed to announce tapering; new 2024 rate projections due (Wed.) Brazil’s central bank likely to raise its policy rate by a further 100bp (Wed.) We think Norway’s central bank will begin its tightening cycle with a 25bp hike (Thu.) …
We doubt that the outcome of next week’s federal election in Canada will have much bearing on the economy and the loonie. Instead, we still think that bond yield differentials and oil prices will be the main drivers of the Canadian dollar, and will push …
We think that UK retail sales rebounded last month (07.00 BST) US consumer confidence probably remained subdued during September (15.00 BST) See our latest research on inflation from the CE Spotlight series here Key Market Themes Although we doubt the …
16th September 2021
The growing risks associated with the property sector in China underscore our view that the renminbi will weaken against the US dollar before long, even if financial stability risks do not escalate much further. We think the currencies of some economies …
We think lockdowns weighed on employment in Australia in August (01.30 BST) US retail sales probably fell again last month (13.30 BST) See our latest top-line forecasts across economies and markets here Key Market Themes The renewed rise in consumer price …
15th September 2021
The UK unemployment rate probably declined in July … … but the annual pace of earnings growth is likely to have dropped too (07.00 BST) We forecast that US core inflation fell from 4.3% in July to 4.1% in August (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes Despite …
13th September 2021
After weakening over the preceding two weeks, the US dollar has rebounded against most other currencies this week. Nonetheless, last week’s disappointing payrolls report and the slightly less upbeat tone in recent comments from FOMC members appear to have …
10th September 2021
Although it has fallen back a bit over the past three weeks, the dollar has been on the front foot for much of the summer and we think it will make some further headway over the next few months. In part, the dollar’s strength in the past three months …
We expect a smaller rise in US core consumer prices in August (Tuesday)… …but think that inflation rose sharply in the UK last month (Wednesday) China’s activity data may suggest that its economy is losing further momentum (Wednesday) Key Market Themes …
We think the UK economy lost some momentum in July (07.00 BST) We expect Russia’s central bank to hike by 50bp at its meeting on Friday (11.30 BST) US producer prices for August may show further inflationary pressure (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes The ECB …
9th September 2021
We think that factory-gate inflation in China reached a new high in August (02.30 BST) The ECB is likely to prepare the ground for tapering its emergency asset purchases (12.45 BST) Inflation last month probably remained above central bank targets in both …
8th September 2021
We think CPI inflation in China held broadly steady at around 1% last month (02.30 BST) We expect the Bank of Canada to leave its policy settings unchanged (15.00 BST) Inflation in Russia probably rose further above the central bank’s target in August …
7th September 2021
We think that the RBA will press ahead with tapering its asset purchases (04.30 BST) Supply bottlenecks probably continued to weigh on German industrial production (07.00 BST) We think South Africa’s economy barely expanded in Q2 (10.30 BST) Key Market …
6th September 2021
The US dollar was little changed following the surprisingly weak August payrolls data, despite a small rise in US government bond yields. It looks set to end another week lower against most currencies, leaving the trade-weighted dollar near its lowest …
3rd September 2021
Weaker demand probably weighed on China’s trade in August (Tue.) Inflation probably remained above target in Brazil, Mexico, Chile & Colombia in August We think the ECB will decide to scale back its emergency asset purchases next week (Thu.) Key Market …
We think that the prospects for monetary tightening point to an appreciation of the Swedish krona relative to the UK pound over the next 6-18 months. This year, sterling has been one of only two G10 currencies to strengthen against the US dollar, while …
2nd September 2021
We doubt that a further fall in Turkey’s inflation will prompt rate cuts quite yet (08.00 BST) Euro-zone retail sales probably dipped in July (10.00 BST) We expect a 750,000 rise in US non-farm payrolls in August (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes Although …
We expect the US ISM Manufacturing Index fell further in August (15.00 BST) Euro-zone unemployment probably ticked down in July (10.00 BST) We think that Brazil’s GDP growth slowed to 0.2% q/q in Q2 (08.00 BST) Key Market Themes While we think that …
31st August 2021
