Filtered by Subscriptions: FX Use setting FX
Global economic and market analysis from Capital Economics We expect the Fed to hike the fed funds rate by 75bp, to 2.25-2.50%(19.00 BST) We think the US economy expanded by just above 1% q/q annualised last quarter (13.30 BST) Register for our Drop-In on …
27th July 2022
We expect the Fed to hike rates by another 75bp, to 2.25-2.50% (19.00 BST) We think inflation in Australia accelerated further in Q2 (01.30 BST) Clients can register for our Drop-In on our latest Global Economic Outlook here (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes …
26th July 2022
With global economic growth weakening and risk sentiment unlikely to rebound sustainably this year in our view, we think that EM currencies generally will remain under pressure over the next several months and that there are a handful of countries where …
Global economic and market analysis from Capital Economics Inflation probably edged down in Brazil in the first half of July (13.00 BST) We expect Hungary’s central bank to hike rates by 100bp (13.00 BST) Clients can register here for a Drop-In on our …
25th July 2022
After a series of strong weeks left it at two-decade highs, the US dollar seems set to end this week lower against most major currencies. Despite weaker-than-expected activity data out of the US, UK, and euro-zone this week, cyclically sensitive (i.e., …
22nd July 2022
We think US GDP expanded in Q2 (Thu.) Japan’s industrial output probably bounced back in June (Fri.) Euro-zone headline CPI inflation may have fallen in July (Fri.) Key Market Themes We doubt bad news for the US economy will continue to be good news for …
Despite their recent rebound, we still think that “high-beta” developed market (DM) currencies will weaken further against the US dollar for the remainder of the year. DM currencies have risen against the greenback over the past week or so, reversing some …
Headline CPI inflation probably eased in Japan in June (00.30 BST) Rising prices probably weighed on June retail sales volumes in the UK (07.00 BST) We expect July’s flash PMIs to show that activity weakened in the euro-zone & the UK Key Market Themes …
21st July 2022
We expect lift-off from the ECB and a rate hike in South Africa too… …but think that central banks in Indonesia, Turkey and Japan will stand pat Gas exports to Europe via NordStream are scheduled to resume tomorrow Key Market Themes The release of strong …
20th July 2022
We doubt China will lower its LPR despite weakness in the housing sector (02.15 BST) Inflation in the UK probably rose to a new 40-year high in June (07.00 BST) Clients can sign up for the Drop-In on our UK economic outlook here Key Market Themes While we …
19th July 2022
We think that the UK labour market remained healthy in May (07.00 BST) US housing starts may point to a further drop in construction activity in June (13.30 BST) We expect a 100bp rate hike from Nigeria’s central bank Key Market Themes Optimistic …
18th July 2022
Although it has dropped back a little today, the US dollar is on track for another strong week, rising further against all other major currencies and hitting a new 20-year high. At the time of writing, the greenback was at or around our end-2022 forecasts …
15th July 2022
UK CPI inflation may have risen further in June (Tue.) We expect a 25bp hike from the ECB next week... (Thu.) ...while the Bank of Japan could widen its tolerance band for the 10-year JGB yield (Thu.) Key Market Themes We think that several data releases …
We expect the Mexican peso to fall further against the US dollar amid mounting external headwinds. As the dollar has appreciated to multi-decade highs against major developed market currencies, such as the euro and the yen, it has also extended its gains …
With the DXY index surging to a fresh 20-year high, the US dollar has reached our end-2022 forecasts against several of the other major currencies. While we are sticking to our current forecasts for now, this Update considers how the factors underpinning …
Activity data from China likely to show a continued rebound from lockdowns (03.00 BST) US activity data may point to a further slowdown in growth in June Clients can view our new Oil Market dashboard on CE Interactive here Key Market Themes The latest …
14th July 2022
We expect Chile’s central bank to hike by 50bp (Wed. 23.00 BST) Inflation in Sweden probably rose further above target last month (Thurs. 07.00 BST) Clients can watch our Drop-In on the latest US CPI surprise here Key Market Themes While we expect …
13th July 2022
Consumer prices in the US are likely to have risen again in June (13.30 BST) Growth of exports out of China probably edged lower in June We expect interest rate hikes in Canada, New Zealand, Korea and Chile Key Market Themes While the euro ’s rapid fall …
12th July 2022
Consumer price inflation in India likely to have risen further in June (13.00 BST) We expect Hungary’s central bank to raise its base rate by 200bp, to 9.75% Germany’s ZEW investor sentiment indicator probably fell again in July (10.00 BST) Key Market …
11th July 2022
The US dollar has continued to surge this week, with the key EUR/USD rate breaching a two-decade low and approaching the symbolic parity level as fears around Europe’s energy supply worsened. Solid US data, in particular today’s stronger-than-expected …
8th July 2022
Consumer prices in the US probably jumped yet again in June (Wednesday) Official data may show a contraction in China’s economy in Q2 (Friday) We expect interest rate hikes in Canada, New Zealand, Korea and Chile Key Market Themes June’s US Employment …
We think US non-farm payroll employment slowed to a decent 250,000 in June (13.30 BST) Headline inflation probably picked up further in Brazil last month (13.00 BST) Meanwhile employment growth in June probably also slowed in Canada (13.30 BST) Key Market …
7th July 2022
We forecast a further ~2% appreciation of the trade-weighted US dollar over the rest of this year. But we continue to think that the risks are skewed towards even greater dollar strength. This Update considers what factors might deliver a more significant …
We suspect that the latest political turmoil in the UK adds to the reasons to expect a renewed rise in the 10-year Gilt yield, weakness in the pound, and continued trouble for the FTSE 100. The market reaction to the resignation of Boris Johnson as Prime …
Fed minutes likely to solidify expectations for a 75bp hike this month (Wed, 19.00 BST) We expect 150bp and 75bp interest rate hikes in Sri Lanka and Pakistan, respectively Clients can sign up here for our Drop-in on the outlook for EM Currencies this …
6th July 2022
Euro-zone retail sales probably edged higher in May (10.00 BST) The FOMC’s Minutes from June should provide details on the pace of tightening (19.00 BST) We expect Romania’s central bank to raise rates by 100bp Key Market Themes Euro-zone assets and the …
5th July 2022
We expect the RBA to hike its cash rate by 50bp, to 1.35% (05.30 BST) Composite PMIs for Italy and Spain likely to have dropped further last month Headline inflation probably rose in Korea, but fell in the Philippines and Thailand in June Key Market …
4th July 2022
We expect 50bp hikes in Australia, Israel, and Peru next week... ... and 75bp hikes in Poland, and Pakistan We think US payrolls increased by 250,000 last month (Fri.) Key Market Themes We don’t expect US equities and Treasuries to fare well in the second …
1st July 2022
The US dollar looks set to end the week stronger against most major currencies, nearing its strongest level since 2002 as “risky” assets remained under pressure. A key reason for the dollar’s rally is that weak activity data out of the US , including the …
China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI might exceed 50 for the first time in four months (02.45 BST) Euro-zone inflation in June was probably a bit lower than consensus estimates (10.00 BST) ISM manufacturing index might provide further evidence of slowing US …
30th June 2022
While the strength of the US dollar already reflects expectations that the Fed will continue its aggressive policy tightening, we think that disappointing global growth and weak risk sentiment will underpin further strength in the greenback this year. …
We think the “official” China PMIs for June headed back above 50 (02.30 BST) Sweden’s central bank looks set to raise its policy rate by 50bp… (08.00 BST) … and we expect a 150bp hike from Colombia’s central bank (19.00 BST) Key Market Themes We think …
29th June 2022
We think that Germany’s inflation rose to 9.2% in June (13.00 BST) Fed’s Powell, ECB’s Lagarde and BoE’s Bailey to speak on panel at ECB Forum (14.00 BST) Clients can access our proprietary indicators and latest forecasts on CE Interactive Key Market …
28th June 2022
We expect Hungary’s central bank to hike rates by 50bp (13.00 BST) Consumer confidence in the US probably remained subdued this month (15.00 BST) Clients can sign up here for our Drop-In on the outlook for Asian central banks (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes …
27th June 2022
Sweden’s Riksbank may hike its policy rate by 50bp (Thursday) Euro-zone inflation probably increased further in June (Friday) We think the ISM Manufacturing Index slipped again this month (Friday) Key Market Themes The proximate cause of this week’s …
24th June 2022
Amid mounting concerns about the global growth outlook as more central banks raised policy rates, the US dollar looks set to end the week broadly unchanged against most major currencies. Although we suspect the greenback may struggle to make new highs in …
We held a Drop-In on Wednesday to discuss what the evolving outlook for monetary policy and global growth means for our markets forecasts. This Update recaps the key questions we addressed in the Drop-In and answers several of the questions that we …
With the outlook for the global economy worsening further and the Fed still on the war path, we have revised down our forecasts for many G10 “high-beta” currencies and several EM currencies . The US dollar has appreciated almost across the board this …
A handful of EM central banks have ramped up FX sales to provide support to weakening currencies over the past couple of months. And with inflation high and the US dollar likely to strengthen further, others could follow suit. FX intervention is unlikely …
We think inflation in Japan held steady at 2.5% in May (00.30 BST) German IFO likely to point towards recession (09.00 BST) Watch today’s Drop-In on tightening in Switzerland and the Nordic economies here Key Market Themes While the yield of 10-year US …
23rd June 2022
Although it has fallen back a little recently, we continue to think the greenback will appreciate further against most currencies as global economic growth disappoints. In our view, “safe-haven” demand has been a key driver of the latest strength in the …
We expect the Norges Bank to up the pace of tightening with a 50bp hike (09.00 BST) Policymakers in Egypt, the Philippines, and Mexico will also probably raise policy rates … … whereas we think that central banks in Indonesia and Turkey will leave rates …
22nd June 2022
We think inflation in the UK continued to edge higher in May (07.00 BST) We expect policymakers in Czechia to raise rates by 100bp (13.30 BST) Clients can sign up here for our Drop-In on our new financial market forecasts (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes …
21st June 2022
We think rising mortgage rates continued to weigh on US home sales in May (Tue. 15.00 BST) In this week’s drop-ins, we’ll discuss the macro risks of higher interest rates …(Tue. 15.00 BST) … and our new financial markets forecasts (Wed. 15.00 BST) Key …
20th June 2022
Among the flurry of central bank announcements, the continued plunge in equity markets, and wild gyrations across core government bond markets, currencies have been pulled in several directions this week. While the US dollar is ending the week only a …
17th June 2022
We expect rate hikes next week in Norway, Mexico, Czechia, the Philippines and Egypt Headline CPI inflation in the UK may have risen above 9% in May... (Wed.) ...but it probably remained around 2.5% in Japan (Fri.) Key Market Themes The BoJ left policy …
Bank of Japan may resist widening the tolerance band around its yield target, for now Final euro-zone inflation data will reveal the breadth of inflationary pressures there (10.00 BST) US industrial output probably rose at a healthy pace in May (14.15 …
16th June 2022
We expect the SNB to leave interest rates unchanged for now… (08.30 BST) …while we think the BoE will deliver a 50bp hike (12.00 BST) Clients can sign up here for our Drop-In on the Fed, ECB, BoE and markets (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes Euro-zone …
15th June 2022
The Turkish lira is once again depreciating sharply against the US dollar and we expect this to continue. We revise our forecasts for the lira and pencil in further substantial weakness by the end of 2022, to 24/$. The lira has plunged ~15% or so against …
The PBOC may ease policy tomorrow with a 10bp cut to its MLF rate (02.20 BST) We expect the Fed to hike by 75bp (19.00 BST) We think Brazil’s central bank will raise rates by 50bp (22.30 BST) Key Market Themes While the twin sell-off in bond and equity …
14th June 2022
