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Hopes for a large support package from UK Chancellor Sunak may be disappointed… …even though inflation in the UK probably reached a 30-year high last month (07.00 GMT) Sign up for our Drop-In on the impact of war in Ukraine on commodity markets here Key …
22nd March 2022
We expect Hungary’s central bank to raise its base rate by 75bp (13.00 GMT) Read our latest research on the macro and market impacts of the war in Ukraine here Clients can view our new Oil Market Monitor dashboard here Key Market Themes The post-FOMC …
21st March 2022
Even after its broad-based appreciation today, the US dollar seems set to end the week a bit lower against most major currencies. This is somewhat surprising given the FOMC’s hawkish tone on Wednesday and Fed Governor Waller’s comment today that a 50bp …
18th March 2022
Flash PMIs for March to give first steer on how the war in Ukraine has impacted DM economies UK chancellor may announce a small support package for households in the spring statement We expect Mexico’s central bank to raise its policy rate by 75bp on …
We think the war in Ukraine and a more hawkish Fed will cause the yield of 10-year US Treasuries and the US dollar generally to end 2022 and 2023 a bit higher than we had previously anticipated. We now also expect DM equities to be a bit lower by the end …
Bank of Japan may push back against speculation about policy tightening We suspect that Russia’s central bank will stand pat (10.30 GMT) Strong growth in Q4 may be as good as it gets for Chile’s economy (11.30 GMT) Key Market Themes The pound gave back …
17th March 2022
The Fed is widely expected to begin its tightening cycle (18.00 GMT) We think the BoE will continue its own hiking cycle with another 25bp rate rise (12.00 GMT) US industrial production data may show output rose fairly strongly in February (13.15 GMT) Key …
16th March 2022
Some of the effects of the war on markets have begun to unwind in recent days, but we think a few of the changes it has brought about will last even if the mood in markets continues to improve. While the situation remains volatile, at the time of writing …
We think that US retail sales rebounded in February (12.30 GMT) The Fed is widely expected to deliver its first rate hike of this cycle (18.00 GMT) Brazil’s central bank may hike its policy rate by another 100bp (21.30 GMT) Key Market Themes With several …
15th March 2022
Although they have fallen back over the past week, we expect the prices of most commodities to remain elevated relative to their recent past. We will be revising our currency forecasts to reflect these views. Our commodities service s are the best places …
We expect the PBOC to cut its Medium-term Lending Facility Rate by 10bp We think unemployment in the UK continued to edge lower in January (07.00 GMT) Producer price inflation in the US probably remained elevated last month (12.30 GMT) Key Market Themes …
14th March 2022
The war in Ukraine continues to dominate both the news headlines and financial markets. While market conditions have remained very volatile, this week has seen a degree of stabilisation of risk sentiment in the absence of major new escalations. As a …
11th March 2022
We expect the Fed and the BoE to raise their policy rates by 25bp… (Wed. & Thu.) … and Brazil’s central bank to hike interest rates by 100bp, to 11.75% (Wed.) In contrast, policymakers in Japan, Russia and Turkey will probably leave rates unchanged Key …
We think UK GDP will have reversed all of December’s drop in January (07.00 GMT) Higher oil prices probably weighed on US consumer confidence this month (15.00 GMT) Clients can view our new Oil Market Monitor dashboard here Key Market Themes While the ECB …
10th March 2022
There has been some discussion of possible FX intervention by the ECB to support the euro, but there is next to no chance of that being announced at today’s press conference, and unless the single currency falls much further we think likely the Bank will …
We estimate that US headline inflation reached 7.7% last month (13.30 GMT) Lagarde will probably try to strike a reassuring tone after tomorrow’s ECB meeting Korea’s presidential election too close to call ahead of final results tomorrow morning Key …
9th March 2022
Consumer price inflation in China probably remained subdued last month (01.30 GMT) … … while we think headline inflation in Mexico rose to almost 8% (12.00 GMT) Clients can view our new Oil Market Monitor dashboard here Key Market Themes We doubt that …
8th March 2022
We expect a 50bp rate hike in Poland, but there is a risk of a larger increase Clients can view our new Oil Market Monitor dashboard here Read our latest research on the economic impact of the war in Ukraine here Key Market Themes History suggests that …
7th March 2022
China’s FX reserves data may reveal PBOC intervention (Mon.) We think the Russia-Ukraine war will mean the ECB delays its plans to normalise policy (Thu.) Core consumer prices in the US may have risen by less in February than January (Thu.) Key Market …
4th March 2022
The war in Ukraine has generated two clear effects in FX markets: the European currencies most immediately exposed to the war and its economic fallout have fallen against the US dollar, while most commodity currencies have strengthened as commodity prices …
The dollar has generally strengthened since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while European currencies have generally been the hardest hit by the war. But unlike in most risk-off episodes, the currencies of commodity exporters have benefitted from a spike in …
While Russia’s financial markets have unravelled since the country’s invasion of Ukraine, global markets have so far held up relatively well. But the mood seems to have turned a bit in recent days, and there are now some early signs of financial stress …
3rd March 2022
Omicron outbreak probably weighed on euro-zone retail sales in January (10.00 GMT) We think US non-farm payrolls rose by 600,000 last month (13.30 GMT) Read our latest research on the economic impact of the war in Ukraine here Key Market Themes So far, …
We think Euro-zone unemployment fell to its lowest recorded level in January (10.00 GMT) The US ISM services index probably declined further in February (15.00 GMT) Read our latest research on the economic impact of the war in Ukraine here Key Market …
2nd March 2022
Euro-zone inflation may have risen to almost 6% in February (10.00 GMT) We expect the Bank of Canada to hike rates by 25bp and begin QT (15.00 GMT) Read our latest reports on the Russia-Ukraine crisis here Key Market Themes While the war in Ukraine has …
1st March 2022
New sanctions on Russia have led to a sharp plunge in the ruble, and an effective freeze of most of the country’s financial markets. We think that the outlook now depends mainly on the extent to which this marks the start of an enduring break in Russia’s …
28th February 2022
Inflation may have reached 5.5% in Germany in January (13.00 GMT) The US ISM Manufacturing Index probably fell back a bit this month (15.00 GMT) Read our latest reports on the Russia-Ukraine crisis here Key Market Themes Aside from Russia , most major …
The Russian invasion of Ukraine early on Thursday morning has, aside from the ruble, so far made only limited impact on currency markets. The US dollar and other safe havens rose sharply on news of the invasion, accelerating the shifts over the previous …
25th February 2022
We expect the Bank of Canada to kick off its tightening cycle next week (Wednesday) Fading of Omicron virus wave probably boosted US non-farm payrolls in February (Friday) Read our latest reports on the Russia-Ukraine crisis here Key Market Themes After a …
President Biden is expected to announce new sanctions on Russia later on Thursday You can watch a recording of our latest Drop-In event on Russia-Ukraine developments here Also see here for all of our reports on the economic and market implications of the …
24th February 2022
Raft of speeches by Fed officials may shed more light on the likely size of the first rate hike We think Mexico’s headline inflation edged down to 7.0% in mid-February (12.00 GMT) Read our latest reports on the Russia-Ukraine crisis here , and sign up for …
23rd February 2022
We expect New Zealand’s central bank to raise its policy rate by 25bp (02.00 GMT) Sign up to hear our take on South Africa’s upcoming budget here Read our latest reports on the Russia-Ukraine crisis here Key Market Themes While continued escalation of …
22nd February 2022
The German IfO Survey is likely to show continued price pressures (09.00 GMT) We expect Hungary’s central bank to raise its base rate by 50bp (13.00 GMT) Read our latest reports on the Russia-Ukraine crisis here Key Market Themes We doubt that the rise in …
21st February 2022
Although it has rebounded today, the US dollar lost a little ground against most major currencies over the week as a whole, as the FOMC minutes prompted a scaling back of market expectations for Fed tightening and risk sentiment see-sawed on continued …
18th February 2022
We think that policymakers in New Zealand will hike interest rates by another 25bp … (Wed.) … but Korea’s central bank is likely to pause its tightening cycle (Thu.) Read our latest reports on the Russia-Ukraine crisis here Key Market Themes While …
With tensions between Russia and Ukraine continuing, the risk of a conflict with far-reaching economic consequences remains uncomfortably high. This Update considers what the impact on global financial markets has been so far, and the potential …
UK retail sales probably rebounded in January as the Omicron wave eased (07.00 GMT) We think Sweden’s CPIF inflation dropped back last month (07.00 GMT) Read our latest reports on the Russia-Ukraine crisis here Key Market Themes While investors have now …
17th February 2022
FOMC minutes later on Wednesday may provide clues on the pace of rate hikes (19.00 GMT) The recovery in Australia’s labour market may have stalled in January (01.30 GMT) We think Turkey’s central bank will leave rates on hold on Thursday (11.00 GMT) Key …
16th February 2022
Despite their strong start to 2022, we think that emerging market (EM) commodity currencies will struggle over the next couple of years as commodity prices fall back from their current high levels. That said, we doubt that they will suffer as much as …
We think that Chinese consumer price inflation dropped back in January … (01.30 GMT) … but headline inflation in the UK and Canada probably held steady We expect US retail sales rebounded fairly strongly last month (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes We expect …
15th February 2022
We expect the PBOC to cut its Medium-term Lending Facility rate by 10bp Employment in the UK probably fell by 75,000 in December (07.00 GMT) We think that Q4 GDP in Japan rebounded by 1.8% q/q (23.50 GMT) Key Market Themes Two unfamiliar and (largely) …
14th February 2022
The US dollar seems set to end the week broadly unchanged against most major currencies despite a favourable shift in government bond yield differentials. While we suspect there is limited scope for a further rise in short-term US Treasury yields, our …
11th February 2022
Fed minutes may shed more light on the likelihood of a 50bp rate hike in March (Wednesday) We think the UK labour market remained tight in December (Tuesday) We expect the PBOC to cut the rate on its medium-term lending facility by 10bp (Monday) Key …
Although last week’s hawkish surprises from the ECB and the Bank of England weaken the case for further US dollar appreciation against the euro, sterling, and other European currencies, we are sticking to our view that the greenback will strengthen a bit …
The Omicron outbreak probably weighed on UK GDP in December (07.00 GMT) We think Russia’s central bank will hike interest rates by 100bp, to 9.5% (10.30 GMT) We expect US consumer confidence to have ticked up in early February (15.00 GMT) Key Market …
10th February 2022
Although a major drop in US equities poses a key downside risk to our view that the US dollar will rise, we doubt the slight underperformance of US equities relative to global equities that we forecast would prevent the greenback from appreciating against …
US headline inflation probably remained above 7% in January (13.30 GMT) We expect central banks in Mexico and Peru to hike their policy rates by a further 50bp… … and the Reserve Bank of India to raise its revere repo rate by 15bp to 3.5% (04.30 GMT) Key …
9th February 2022
Romania’s central bank may raise its policy rate by 25bp, to 2.25% We expect Thailand’s central bank to stand pat throughout 2022 (07.00 GMT) Brazil’s inflation probably rose further last month (12.00 GMT) Key Market Themes Despite recent increases, we …
8th February 2022
We expect Poland’s central bank to raise its policy rate by 50bp to 2.75% We think that the US trade deficit widened in December (13.30 GMT) Find our macro forecasts in our latest Global Economic Outlook here Key Market Themes We don’t think government …
7th February 2022
A week after the FOMC’s hawkish message sent the US dollar soaring, the ECB delivered an even bigger surprise at yesterday’s policy meeting by opening the door to policy rate hikes later this year. That resulted in the euro’s largest single-day gain …
4th February 2022
