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South Africa’s inflation probably eased slightly last month (09.00 BST) We think the Fed will hike by 75bp tomorrow, but still expect rate cuts next year (19.00 BST) Brazil’s central bank may end its tightening cycle with a final 25bp increase (22.30 …
20th September 2022
The outlook for China’s economy has deteriorated recently, but it still doesn’t look like the PBOC will ease policy much in response. We suspect that if the central bank were to have a change of heart, it would be quite disruptive to the country’s …
16th September 2022
The US dollar has added to its post-CPI surge, leaving it stronger this week against all major currencies on the back of expectations for even tighter Fed policy and weaker appetite for risk. Although our central forecasts imply that yield gaps will …
We expect the US Federal Reserve to raise rates by 75bp (Wednesday) Flash PMIs will probably suggest the euro-zone economy remained weak in September (Friday) The UK government might announce a further fiscal expansion (Friday) Key Market Themes …
We think China’s August activity data will reveal further economic weakness (03.00 BST) Final August euro-zone inflation data may show broadening price pressures (10.00 BST) We expect Russia’s central bank to cut by 50bp (11.30 BST) Key Market Themes …
15th September 2022
We think the PBOC will keep its policy rates on hold (02.15 BST) Euro-zone labour costs may show pay pressures building (10.00 BST) Falling gas prices probably dragged down headline US retail sales (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes Although we doubt the …
14th September 2022
Inflation in the UK probably edged higher last month (07.00 BST) We think euro-zone industrial production fell sharply in July (10.00 BST) Clients can see our highest conviction macro calls and their market implications here Key Market Themes Despite the …
13th September 2022
We think the yen will strengthen against the US dollar over the next few years, as the headwinds that have driven the currency to multi-decade lows begin to unwind. The yen has fallen nearly 20% against the greenback this year, the most of any of the …
We suspect UK labour demand dropped back a bit in July (07.00 BST) We think the German ZEW economic sentiment indicator fell again in September (10.00 BST) Inflation in the US probably edged lower last month (13.00 BST) Key Market Themes US inflation …
12th September 2022
We think UK GDP rebounded in July but recession looms (Mon.) US headline inflation probably fell further in August (Tue.) The PBOC will probably leave the MLF rate unchanged again this month (Thu.) Key Market Themes We suspect the positive correlation …
9th September 2022
Today’s sell-off in the US dollar has left it little changed against most major currencies since last Friday. The catalysts for today’s decline, from fresh multi-decades highs, seem to be the ongoing hawkishness of the ECB and the rebound in risk …
Notwithstanding the big policy announcements in the UK this week, we still think that the pound and the UK stock market will struggle over the rest of this year, but expect 10-year Gilts to rally. We set out what we think the “Energy Price Guarantee” …
Despite the rise in volatility lately, compensation for risk across several major asset classes still seems quite low relative to history. That means, in our view, that if volatility were to remain high, it could spark further selloffs across asset …
We think consumer price inflation in China edged lower in August … (02.30 BST) … and inflation data out of Brazil will also show a further fall last month (13.00 BST) Clients can view our latest dashboards and proprietary indicators here Key Market …
8th September 2022
We think a combination of domestic and external factors will push up risk premia in Brazil over the rest of this year. This informs our forecasts that the real will weaken and the country’s bonds will sell off. Brazil’s financial markets appear to have …
We expect the ECB to raise its policy rate by 75bp ... (13.15 BST) ... while Malaysia’s central bank is likely to hike by 25bp (08.00 BST) Inflation in Mexico and Chile probably edged higher in August (11.00 BST) Key Market Themes We think 10-year …
7th September 2022
We expect Chile’s central bank to hike by 75bp… (Tue 21.00 BST) …and we think the Bank of Canada will do likewise (Wed 15.00 BST) Poland’s central bank may end its tightening cycle with a 50bp hike Key Market Themes Even though we expect the RBA to …
6th September 2022
We expect Australia’s central bank to hike by 50bp (04.30 BST) We think the ISM Services Index fell back a bit in August (15.00 BST) Chile’s central bank could raise its policy rate by a further 75bp (21.00 BST) Key Market Themes The indefinite closure of …
5th September 2022
While the dollar eased back a little after today’s US non-farm payrolls report led to a reversal in US interest rate expectations, news that the Nordstream pipeline may not reopen as planned has seen it rebound. The greenback looks set to end the week …
2nd September 2022
The UK’s next prime minister will be announced on Monday US ISM services survey probably remained at a healthy level last month (Tuesday) We expect interest rate hikes in the euro-zone, Australia, Canada and several major EMs Key Market Themes With …
We think US non-farm payrolls rose by 350,000 in August… (13.30 BST) … and will be discussing the release in a drop-in tomorrow at 15.00 BST Clients can also sign up for Monday’s drop-in on the UK outlook under the new PM here Key Market Themes We …
1st September 2022
While the euro, sterling, and most other European currencies have already fallen significantly against the dollar over the past year or so, we now expect them to weaken further over the next twelve months as the economic slowdown and the terms of …
Despite their precipitous fall against the dollar this year and last, we think the euro, sterling, and most other European currencies will weaken further over the next twelve month as the economic slowdown and the terms of trade shock that is hitting the …
31st August 2022
Caixin manufacturing PMI likely to suggest that China’s recovery lost steam (02.45 BST) Euro-zone unemployment rate may have risen for the first time in two years (10.00 BST) US ISM manufacturing survey will probably point to sluggish growth in August …
The Indian rupee has continued its long-run trend of depreciation against the US dollar this year, taking it to a record low of 80/$. It may still weaken further in the near term. However, there are reasons to think that that the rupee will reverse …
We think official PMIs will show China’s economy continued to lose momentum (02.30 BST) Inflation in the euro-zone probably rose further in August (10.00 BST) Clients can register for our Drop-In about macro risks across emerging markets here Key …
30th August 2022
Th US dollar seems set to end the week a bit higher against most major currencies after Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole reinforced the FOMC’s recent pushback against an early “pivot” sent equity markets tumbling and boosted the greenback . The …
26th August 2022
August euro-zone inflation data likely to reinforce the case for further ECB rate hikes (Wed.) Power shortages likely to mean falls in China’s manufacturing PMIs (Wed. & Thu.) We expect another healthy rise in US non-farm payrolls in August (Fri.) Key …
While EM real effective exchange rates have held up better than their nominal exchange rates against the dollar since 2021, we think there are some economies where appreciations look stretched, and nominal exchange rates may need to adjust further. …
US spending data are likely to show consumption accelerated in July (13.30 BST) Powell’s speech likely to emphasise the need to keep rates high for some time (15.00 BST) We think GDP growth in Nigeria slowed markedly last quarter Key Market Themes …
25th August 2022
A shift in implied real yield gaps between the US and some other developed markets (DMs) have underpinned the latest rise in the greenback. We think the ongoing energy crisis in Europe means that major European currencies, in particular, will remain …
We expect Korea’s central bank to hike by another 25bp August Ifo Business Climate Indicator may imply a recession in Germany (09.00 BST) Second estimate of US Q2 GDP likely to be revised up (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes Defensive sectors of the S&P 500 …
24th August 2022
We think August mid-month figures will show inflation fell sharply in Brazil (13.00 BST) Core durable goods orders in the US probably edged up last month (13.30 BST) Clients can register for our upcoming Drop-In on the outlooks for China and Japan …
23rd August 2022
We suspect the Composite PMI fell further below 50 in August in the euro-zone… (09.00 BST) … while crossing this boundary for the first time since last lockdown in the UK (09.30 BST) Higher US mortgage rates may have pushed new home sales further down …
22nd August 2022
The US dollar rallied sharply this week, regaining most of the ground lost since its mid-July peak as US interest rate expectations rebounded and risk appetite faded . All G10 currencies fell against the dollar this week (see Chart 1), and we think …
19th August 2022
We expect a 50bp rate hike from Israel’s central bank (Monday) August Flash PMIs for the euro-zone and UK may point towards recession (Tuesday) We doubt that Fed Chair Powell will spring a surprise at Jackson Hole (Friday) Key Market Themes Dividend …
Despite the broad-based rebound over the past month or so, we expect deteriorating risk sentiment to put renewed pressure on most emerging market (EM) currencies before long. This Update zeroes in on which EM currencies are most vulnerable to large falls. …
In the UK, we suspect retail sales volumes declined for the fifth time in six months in July … … and the fiscal position was probably a bit worse than the OBR’s forecast (07.00 BST) Clients can catch-up on our Drop-In on Europe and the impact of …
18th August 2022
Fed’s July meeting minutes likely to emphasise commitment to further hikes (Wed. 19.00 BST) We expect the Norges Bank to raise its policy rate by 50bp to 1.75% (09.00 BST) Turkey’s central bank will probably leave its one-week repo rate on hold at 14% …
17th August 2022
UK CPI inflation probably rose further in July (07.00 BST) We think euro-zone economic growth remained positive in Q2 (10.00 BST) US retail sales probably edged higher in July (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes We think equity and commodity prices will …
The UK unemployment rate probably remained flat in June (07.00 BST) Canada’s CPI inflation may have dropped back in July (13.30 BST) We think US industrial production edged higher last month (15.15 BST) Key Market Themes We expect external and domestic …
15th August 2022
The US dollar continued to struggle this week as equity markets extended their rebound and commodity prices also rallied: the currencies of commodity exporters and other economies most exposed to global growth generally fared well. Wednesday’s …
12th August 2022
US activity data are likely to show the economy began the third quarter in decent health … … but activity data for China will probably show the recovery losing some steam (Mon.) UK Inflation probably rose to nearly 10% last month (Wed.) Key Market Themes …
The Canadian dollar has held up relatively well against the US dollar so far in 2022, but we think the factors underpinning the loonie’s resilience will fade and push it lower against the greenback over the next couple of years. The loonie has been the …
11th August 2022
We think that UK GDP contracted in June due to temporary working day effects (07.00BST) Euro-zone industrial output probably rose in June, but prospects look gloomy (10.00 BST) Easing inflationary pressures likely aided US consumer confidence this month …
Although we think the end of the Fed’s hiking cycle is drawing nearer and that yields of long-term US Treasuries have already peaked for this cycle, we don’t believe this necessarily spells the end of the dollar bull market. Instead, we expect safe-haven …
We expect Mexico’s central bank to hike by 75bp (19.00 BST) Sign up here for our Drop In on the challenges facing economies in Emerging Europe... ...and here for a replay of today’s Drop In on the July US CPI data Key Market Themes Despite dropping on the …
10th August 2022
We held a Drop In yesterday outlining our latest forecasts for global financial markets. This Update answers some questions that we received during that Drop In but didn’t have time to address. What would have to go right for bond and equity markets to be …
We think CPI inflation in China edged higher in July … (02.00 BST) … while headline inflation in the US probably fell back a bit (13.30 BST) Policymakers in Thailand are likely to hike rates for the first time this year (08.00 BST) Key Market Themes …
9th August 2022
We think that inflation rose in Mexico last month, but dropped back in Brazil Clients can register for Tuesday’s Drop-Ins on oil prices and the Gulf economies here … … and on whether the recent rallies in equity and bond markets will last here Key Market …
8th August 2022
