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We think that Korea’s economy slipped into recession in Q1 (00.00 BST) UK public sector borrowing probably undershot the OBR’s target in 2022/23 (07.00 BST) We expect US home sales and consumer confidence to paint a weak picture (15.00 BST) Key Market …
24th April 2023
The fluctuations following the release of PMI data out of the euro-zone , UK and US look set to leave the dollar broadly unchanged against most major currencies since last Friday. These data – along with evidence in Q1 GDP data of a robust recovery in …
21st April 2023
We think US GDP grew by 1.8% annualised in Q1 (Thu.) Euro-zone GDP probably rose by a smaller 0.1% q/q (Fri.) We expect the BoJ to abandon Yield Curve Control at Governor Ueda’s first meeting (Fri.) Key Market Themes We think that the more recent …
The Norwegian krone has been the worst G10 performer against the US dollar by some way in recent months. Though lower energy prices and weakening risk sentiment have likely played a role, we suspect foreign exchange transactions by Norges Bank are also …
Note: We’ll be discussing the BOJ’s April decision and the fate of YCC in a 20-minute online briefing at 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT on Friday, 28th April. Register here . While stronger-than-expected data out of Europe and China have weighed on the dollar over …
Retail sales volumes in the UK probably fell in March (07.00 BST) We think the Composite PMI for the euro-zone remained unchanged in April… (09.00 BST) … while PMIs in the US and UK edged down Key Market Themes We think Fed Chair Powell was right to …
20th April 2023
We think price pressures remained elevated in New Zealand in Q1 (22.45 BST) Sign-up here for tomorrow’s Drop-in on our revamped financial condition indices… …and here to catch up on yesterday’s Drop-In on China’s post-lockdown recovery Key Market …
19th April 2023
UK headline CPI probably fell in March while core pressures remained strong (07.00 BST) See our revised and expanded Financial Conditions Indices for advanced economies here Catch up on today’s Drop-In on China’s post-lockdown recovery here Key Market …
18th April 2023
China’s Q1 GDP data may show robust q/q growth (03.00 BST) We expect Indonesia’s central bank to leave policy unchanged (08.20 BST) Sign up here for our Drop-In on China’s post-lockdown recovery (09.00 BST) Key Market Themes Q1 earnings reports from US …
17th April 2023
Despite a bounce today, the US dollar is set to end the week lower against most currencies and around its weakest level, in aggregate, in a year. This partly reflects that, even though Treasury yields are set to end the week higher following today’s …
14th April 2023
UK headline CPI probably fell in March, though core pressures remain strong (Wed.) We expect the PBOC to keep its 1-Year Loan Prime Rate on hold next week (Thu.) Flash PMIs for the euro-zone may point to a continued expansion in April (Fri.) Key Market …
Financial market strains have eased over recent weeks, though some pockets of uncertainty remain and our sense is that the risk of further problems emerging in the coming months remains high. Since the forced takeover of Credit Suisse by rival UBS three …
We think Peru’s central bank will keep its policy rate on hold at 7.75% (Thu.) US activity data for March may cast doubt on the case for a 25bp hike (Fri.) We expect Singapore’s central bank to leave policy unchanged (Fri.) Key Market Themes The recent …
13th April 2023
Although the Turkish lira is at its weakest ever level against the US dollar, it would have fallen far further by now were it not for intervention by policymakers. We anticipate that the currency will depreciate sharply before long against a backdrop of …
GDP growth was probably flat in the UK in February (07.00 BST) Industrial production is likely to have risen in the euro-zone in February (10.00 BST) Catch up on today’s Drop-in on what the latest US inflation data mean for the Fed here Key Market Themes …
12th April 2023
We think India’s CPI inflation fell below the RBI’s upper limit of 6% in March (13.00 BST) US CPI inflation probably dropped to 5.4% in March (13.30 BST) We expect the Bank of Canada to keep its policy rate unchanged (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes Amid …
11th April 2023
This edition of the Weekly Wrap is published today in view of the Good Friday holiday tomorrow. It has been another relatively subdued week in currency markets, but despite another batch of disappointing economic data out of the US and accompanying falls …
6th April 2023
Improved economic fundamentals outside the US have coincided with the dollar’s sharp fall since last September, narrowing the greenback’s substantial overvaluation. But we still think that it remains somewhat stronger than warranted by fundamentals. …
The next edition of the Capital Daily will be published on 11 th April 2023, after Easter Monday. We expect the US employment report to show the labour market is cooling (Fri.) Headline CPI inflation in China may have dropped below 1% in March (Tue.) We …
The RBI will probably end its tightening cycle with a 25bp hike on Thursday (04.30 BST) Industrial production was probably flat in Germany in February (07.00 BST) Catch up on yesterday’s Drop-in on the outlook for global financial markets here Key Market …
5th April 2023
We expect the RBNZ to slow the pace of tightening and hike by 25bp (02.00 BST) The ISM Services Index is likely to show further signs of slower growth (15.00 BST) We think policymakers in Chile and Poland will keep interest rates on hold Key Market …
4th April 2023
Sign up to our Drop-In on our latest outlook for financial markets We expect policymakers to keep policy rates unchanged in Australia, at 3.6%… (04.30 BST) … as well as in Romania, at 7.0% (14.00 BST) Key Market Themes Although the decision by OPEC+ …
3rd April 2023
Despite making up some ground today, the dollar seems set to end the week somewhat lower against nearly all major currencies. Banking turmoil in the US and elsewhere appears to be receding (for now), with the latest Fed data confirming emergency …
31st March 2023
We expect the RBA to pause its tightening cycle next week (Tue.) The National Bank of Poland will probably also keep rates on hold (Wed.) We think the US labour market cooled in March (Fri.) Key Market Themes Although a “narrowing” of the stock market …
The dollar’s February rebound has been cut short by turmoil in the US regional banking sector, but we continue to think the greenback will make one final push higher as advanced economies fall into recession and risk sentiment deteriorates. Although the …
30th March 2023
China’s official PMIs are likely to show economic momentum fading in March (02.30 BST) We think euro-zone headline inflation fell in March, while core remained strong (10.00 BST) Real consumption in the US probably changed little in February (13.30 BST) …
With the dust settling on the recent turmoil in US and European banks, economists from across our financial markets coverage assessed the damage to the outlook for bonds, equities and FX. Chief Markets Economist John Higgins and the team held an online …
We think Germany’s inflation rate fell sharply in March (12.00 BST) The central bank in South Africa will probably hike its policy rate by 25bp… (14.00 BST) … while policymakers in Egypt may deliver an aggressive 300bp hike Key Market Themes During the …
29th March 2023
Canada’s 2023 budget likely to focus on longer-term measures (Tue.) We expect Czechia’s central bank to leave its policy rate on hold… (Wed.) …and we think Thailand’s central bank will do likewise (Wed.) Key Market Themes The recent surge in the yield …
28th March 2023
We expect Hungary’s central bank to leave policy unchanged (13.00 BST) US Conference Board data may give an indication of any recent hit to sentiment (15.00 BST) Sign up here for tomorrow’s Drop-In on the risks around commercial real estate (16.00 BST) …
27th March 2023
The US dollar had spent much of the week on the back foot amid a growing belief that banking sector issues might prove a largely US-specific problem. But that narrative, and price action, has (again) been turned on its head today as European banks …
24th March 2023
We expect China PMIs for March to suggest economic momentum there is fading (Fri.) Updated UK Q4 GDP data may reveal a recession there after all (Fri.) Euro-zone headline CPI inflation probably dropped in March (Fri.) Key Market Themes We suspect some …
The ongoing struggles of the banking sector in the US and elsewhere has muddled the outlook for the dollar. But while we think the balance of probability has shifted against the greenback, we continue to expect a near-term rebound in the dollar, in …
We think UK retail sales edged up again in February (07.00 GMT) Flash PMIs for the euro-zone probably declined a little in March (09.00 GMT) We expect US durable goods orders fell in February (12.30 GMT) Key Market Themes With major central banks …
23rd March 2023
We expect the Fed to raise its policy rate by 25bp later on Wednesday (18.00 GMT) The SNB and Norges Bank are both likely to hike rates on Thursday (08.30 & 09.00 GMT) The latest UK inflation data support our view that the BoE will hike by 25bp too …
22nd March 2023
We think CPI inflation edged lower in the UK… (07.00 GMT) …and continued to soften in South Africa in February (08.00 GMT) The Fed will probably press ahead with a 25bp rate hike (18.00 GMT) Key Market Themes A risk-on mood has prevailed today amid …
21st March 2023
Clients can access all our latest research on the banking sector crisis here … … and catch-up on today’s Drop-in on the topic here Canada’s CPI inflation probably fell to 5.4% in February, from 5.9% in January (12.30 GMT) Key Market Themes Financial …
20th March 2023
In a week dominated by headlines about bank failures and the risk of another financial crisis, resulting in extraordinary volatility in government bond markets as interest rate expectations have plunged, the foreign exchange market has been a haven of …
17th March 2023
We expect the Fed to press ahead with a 25bp hike next week (Wed.) The Bank of England and Norges Bank will probably also hike by 25bp (Thu.) But we think the SNB may raise rates by 50bp (Thu.) Key Market Themes Despite a better day for financial …
While the backdrop has shifted dramatically, we still think there’s a strong case for our existing forecasts of a further rally in long-dated bonds by the end of the year, and some near-term strength in the US dollar and weakness in equities. The Swiss …
The ghosts of 2008 have made a sudden reappearance. Many metrics of core market functioning have worsened worryingly fast, but the overall situation is still long way short of the type of strains seen during the worst parts of the Global Financial …
16th March 2023
We expect Russia’s central bank to leave its policy rate on hold (10.30 GMT) US industrial production probably fell back in February (13.15 GMT) Clients can watch today’s Drop-In on banking sector turmoil and central banks here Key Market Themes The ECB …
We think Japan’s exports rebounded by 7.0% y/y on February (23.50 GMT) The ECB may not hike rates tomorrow due to fears of a banking crisis (13.15 GMT) Sign-up here for our US Drop-in on our outlook for the US economy (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes The …
15th March 2023
A preferential rate to facilitate wine exports is the latest addition to Argentina’s myriad exchange rates, but it doesn’t address the fundamental problem that the peso is overvalued. We estimate that the currency needs to fall by around 30% to restore …
Euro-zone industrial production probably edged up in January (10.00 GMT) The UK’s Spring Budget may contain limited short-term fiscal loosening (12.30 GMT) We think that US retail sales fell by 0.8% in February (12.30 GMT) Key Market Themes How the …
14th March 2023
Clients can find our coverage on the SVB collapse on our designated landing page here … …and sign-up here for our Drop-In on the policy outlook for the ECB (10.00 GMT) We think US consumer price inflation fell only slightly, to 6.1%, in February (12.30 …
13th March 2023
The dollar’s sharp rally after Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish testimony to Congress on Tuesday sent US interest rate expectations soaring now looks like ancient history. Instead, after unexpected turmoil in the US banking sector and today’s …
10th March 2023
We think US consumer price inflation fell slightly to around 6% in February (Tue.) Retail sales in China probably rebounded in January and February (Wed.) We expect the ECB to hike by a further 50bp (Thu.) Key Market Themes US government bond yields …
The South African rand has weakened sharply against the US dollar so far this year, markedly underperforming other emerging market (EM) currencies. We expect domestic and global headwinds to drive a bit more depreciation, to 19.0/$, later this year. But …
9th March 2023
The Bank of Japan could abandon Yield Curve Control tomorrow We think UK GDP growth picked up in January, but recession looms (07.00 GMT) We expect US payrolls data to confirm that January strength was a blip (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes We think …
