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After a choppy few days in financial markets, the US dollar is ending the week a touch stronger against most other major currencies as risk sentiment has worsened sharply in the wake of the latest round of central bank meetings. We suspect this will …
16th December 2022
We expect the BoJ to leave its policy settings unchanged next week… (Tue.) …and we think central banks in Hungary, Czechia and Turkey will do likewise Indonesia’s central bank will probably slow its pace of tightening to 25bp (Thu.) Key Market Themes …
Fed strikes back but activity data suggests it will cut rates before the end of next year Markets take fright at ECB’s hawkish comments and the prospect of quantitative tightening Despite a dovish tone, the BoE may yet hike rates much further Key …
15th December 2022
This is part of a series of reports outlining our key macro and market calls for 2023. Click here to view the full series. Our latest Asset Allocation Outlook can be found here . Two of the three topics we expect to dominate the global macroeconomic …
We expect the Fed to slow the pace of rate hikes to 50bp later today (19.00 GMT) The BoE will probably also slow tightening and hike by 50bp on Thursday… (12.00 GMT) … and we think the ECB will follow suit with a 50bp increase too (13.15 GMT) Key Market …
14th December 2022
We suspect investors are underestimating how disruptive the transition from zero-COVID will prove for China, which could threaten some of the recent rises in the country’s equity prices, bond yields and currency. But once that disruption has begun to …
We think UK CPI inflation held steady at 11.1% in November (07.00 GMT) Euro-zone industrial production probably fell by about 2% m/m in October (10.00 GMT) We expect the Fed to deliver a 50bp hike and project a higher peak in rates (19.00 GMT) Key …
13th December 2022
We think tightness in the UK labour market eased in October (07.00 GMT) Germany’s ZEW survey may show an improvement in investor sentiment (10.00 GMT) US consumer price inflation probably fell back further in November (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes With …
12th December 2022
We think US consumer price inflation continued to ease last month (Tue.) We expect the Fed to slow the pace of tightening with a 50bp hike (Wed.) Clients can register here for our Drop In for next week’s major central bank decisions (Thu.) Key Market …
9th December 2022
Even after a small boost following the release of US PPI data today, the US dollar seems set to end this “data-light” week broadly unchanged against most major currencies. By contrast, we suspect next week will prove more volatile given the ten major …
The Canadian dollar has underperformed most other currencies over recent weeks, and we expect it to depreciate further against the US dollar over the first half of next year. The loonie has been the worst performer among major currencies since the US CPI …
We think price pressures in China cooled further in November… (01.30 GMT) … while a decline in US PPI could foreshadow a similar drop in CPI next week (13.30 GMT) University of Michigan consumer confidence is probably still historically weak (15.00 GMT) …
8th December 2022
We think the Bank of Canada will hike rates by 25bp later today… (15.00 GMT) …but central banks in Brazil and Poland will probably keep rates unchanged Catch-up here on yesterday’s Drop-In on inflation in the US and the Euro-zone Key Market Themes An …
7th December 2022
Germany’s industrial output probably contracted by 0.5% m/m in October (07.00 GMT) We expect China’s exports to have fallen by 5.5% y/y due to cooling global demand We think the Bank of Canada will hike rates by 25bp, while Poland’s central bank stays …
6th December 2022
We think the Reserve Bank of Australia will hike the cash rate by 25bp (03.30 GMT) The US international trade deficit probably widened sharply in October (13.30 GMT) Clients can sign-up here for a Drop In on our inflation outlook for the US and …
5th December 2022
Today’s US non-farm payrolls data provided some relief to the US dollar, but it still looks set to end the week lower against most major currencies. This weakness mostly reflects the market reaction to Fed Chair Powell’s much-anticipated speech on …
2nd December 2022
Euro-zone retail sales may have fallen in October (Mon.) We except another hike from central banks in Australia (Tue.), India and Peru… (Wed.) … while banks in Chile (Tue.), Poland and Brazil will probably keep rates unchanged (Wed.) Key Market Themes …
We think US non-farm payrolls rose by a more modest 175,000 in November… (13.30 GMT) … while employment growth in Canada probably slowed to 25,000 last month (13.30 GMT) Catch up on our Drop-In discussing EM inflation dynamics here Key Market Themes The …
1st December 2022
Renewed optimism in global markets – in large part tied to hopes for a Fed “pivot” – pushed the US dollar down against most major currencies last month. But with a global recession on the horizon, we continue to think that the dollar rally will resume …
Fed’s Powell may push back against recent easing in financial conditions (Wed., 18.30 GMT) We think US manufacturing ISM may have slipped below 50 in November (Thu., 15.00 GMT) We will be hosting Drop-Ins on UK house prices and EM policy rates tomorrow …
30th November 2022
Turkey’s GDP growth probably slowed in the third quarter (07.00) We think euro-zone inflation declined in October (10.00 GMT) Thailand’s central bank is likely to hike by 25bp (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes Although Bund yields have fallen today amid …
29th November 2022
Although the rally in the US dollar has seen a significant reversal over recent weeks, indicators from past turning points in the greenback suggest to us that there remains scope for the dollar to reach fresh cyclical highs if, as we expect, a global …
The Euro-zone’s Economic Sentiment Index is likely to have remained very weak (10.00 GMT) We think Germany’s HICP inflation stayed at 11.6% in November (13.00 GMT) Canada’s GDP growth probably slowed to 1.6% annualised in the third quarter (13.30 GMT) …
28th November 2022
Euro-zone inflation may have risen again this month (Wed.) November’s US ISM manufacturing survey probably dropped below 50 (Thu.) We think US non-farm payrolls rose by a more modest 175,000 in November (Fri.) Key Market Themes Chinese equities have …
25th November 2022
The US dollar came under renewed pressure and is set to end the week lower against most major currencies. To a large extent, this weakness came in response to surprisingly strong durable goods data easing recession fears, as well as the minutes from the …
A fall in Tokyo’s inflation might suggest that Japan’s national inflation has peaked (Thu.) Catch up on today’s Asia Macro Drop-In, and all our Drop-Ins, here … …or check out our Weekly Briefing podcast episodes here Key Market Themes Despite the …
24th November 2022
We expect central banks in Korea, Sweden and South Africa to hike policy rates… …but think Turkey’s central bank will cut rates, and that a RRR cut is imminent in China Client can sign up here for our Drop-In on Asia’s big macro and market stories …
23rd November 2022
Despite its strength this month, we think the headwinds facing the South African rand remain in place and expect it to reach fresh lows against the US dollar through the middle of next year. Amid the broad-based weakness in the dollar following the …
Reserve Bank of New Zealand will probably hike by 75bp on Wednesday (01.00 GMT) We think South Africa’s inflation softened in October (08.00 GMT) We expect UK Flash PMIs to show further weakness in November (09.30 GMT) Key Market Themes Supply …
22nd November 2022
We expect Nigeria’s central bank to hike by 100bp to 16.5%… …but Hungary’s central bank is likely to keep policy settings unchanged (13.00 GMT) We think retail sales in Canada fell by 1.0% m/m in September (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes The …
21st November 2022
The dollar has recouped a bit of ground this week as Treasury yields have stabilised and the rally in risky assets has stalled, but the greenback remains well below its late September peak. As we suggested that they might, Fed officials have pushed back …
18th November 2022
We expect 75bp rate hikes from central banks in New Zealand, Sweden and South Africa We think flash PMI data for November will show that activity contracted in the UK… (Wed.) …as well as in Germany, France and in the euro-zone (Wed.) Key Market Themes …
High carry emerging market (EM) currencies have generally fared better than their low carry counterparts over recent months, but we doubt this will continue. We think currencies in EM Asia will fare best over the next two quarters, despite their low …
Japan’s headline inflation probably rose to 3.5% in October (Thu., 23.30 GMT) We think UK retail sales volumes were flat in October (07.00 GMT) We suspect Chile’s GDP contracted by 0.3% q/q in Q3 (11.30 GMT) Key Market Themes The market reaction to …
17th November 2022
We think US housing starts fell in October on the back of rising mortgage rates (15.00 GMT) We expect the central banks of Indonesia and the Philippines to raise rates Clients can sign up here for our Drop-In on the UK Autumn Statement (16.00 GMT) Key …
16th November 2022
The negative correlation between the US dollar and the price of oil has reasserted itself in recent months, and we think it will persist as the looming global recession pushes the dollar higher and oil price lower. Although the price of oil hasn’t risen …
Higher utility prices probably pushed UK CPI inflation higher in October (07.00 GMT) We think US retail sales increased by 1.3% last month… (13.30 GMT) … but we expect industrial production to have risen by a more-muted 0.2% (14.15 GMT) Key Market …
15th November 2022
Activity data likely to show that China’s economy lost momentum last month… (02.00 GMT) …but we expect the PBOC to refrain from cutting its MLF rate tomorrow We think tightness in the UK labour market eased in September (07.00 GMT) Key Market Themes …
14th November 2022
We think economic activity was weak in China in October, but probably held up in the US We expect central banks in the Philippines and Indonesia to hike rates (Thu.) Clients can sign up here for our Drop-In on the UK Autumn Statement (Thu.) Key Market …
11th November 2022
The dollar is set to end the week substantially lower, adding today to its broad-based weakness following the softer-than-expected US October CPI report . The data were in line with our view that inflation in the US economy is easing, and investors have …
Despite the recent sharp drop in the greenback, we doubt this is the end of the dollar bull market. Yesterday’s softer-than-expected US CPI print prompted the largest single-day drop in the DXY index since December 2015. Indeed, it was one of only a …
While the renminbi, and many other currencies sensitive to the outlook for China’s economy, have rallied sharply against the dollar on hopes that China will shift away from its “zero-COVID” policy (and today’s softer-than-expected US CPI print), we doubt …
10th November 2022
We think Malaysia’s GDP growth slowed sharply in Q3… (04.00 GMT) … and the UK economy contracted, marking the start of a recession (07.00 GMT) Consumer sentiment in the US probably remained low in early November (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes US …
We think US consumer price inflation fell back in October (13.30 GMT) Mexico’s central bank is likely to deliver another 75bp hike… (19.00 GMT) … but we expect policymakers in Peru to keep interest rates on hold (23.00 GMT) Key Market Themes The …
9th November 2022
We think CPI inflation eased in China in October … (01.30 GMT) …but remained well above the central bank’s target in Mexico (12.00 GMT) We expect Poland’s central bank to announce a 25bp hike Key Market Themes Although US “big-tech” stocks have had a …
8th November 2022
Brazil’s financial markets have been some of the world’s best performers lately, supported in part by the prospect of centrist policymaking by incoming president Lula. With the presidential election now complete, and Lula set to be inaugurated soon, a …
We think euro-zone retail sales increased by 0.8% m/m in September (10.00 GMT) Romania’s central bank is likely to hike by 50bp (13.00 GMT) Register here for a Drop-In to discuss the key takeaways from our Global Economic Outlook Key Market Themes The …
7th November 2022
After another turbulent week in currency markets, the US dollar looks set to end the week a touch lower against most major currencies after a mixed US payrolls report and hopes that China is about to relax its “zero-COVID” policy offset the …
4th November 2022
Germany’s industrial production probably slumped in September (Mon.) We think annual US core CPI inflation fell in October (Thu.) We expect rate hikes in Mexico, Poland and Romania Key Market Themes While we still think a sustained fall in Treasury …
Chief Markets Economist John Higgins held a discussion with economists from across our Markets team shortly after the release of our Q4 Outlooks. During this briefing, John and the team answered client questions and highlighted key takeaways from their …
