Filtered by Subscriptions: Capital Daily Use setting Capital Daily
Today’s hotter-than-expected US inflation data makes for another bump in the road for US bond and equity markets. But we think a full-scale return to the bad old days of the 2021-23 inflation scare is unlikely, and that the US equity market will continue …
13th February 2024
The ways things are going, our upbeat forecast for the S&P 500 of 5,500 at the end of this year may be realised in a matter of months . We doubt the rally would end there, though. Admittedly, we might be inclined in that event to pencil in an earlier end …
12th February 2024
“High-carry” emerging market (EM) currencies have not been immune to broad-based dollar strength so far this year, and we think they have further to fall. Although investors have pared back expectations for rate cuts by major central banks (notably the …
9th February 2024
We expect government bond yields in emerging market (EM) economies to fall over the remainder of the year, helped by a broadening easing cycle and falling Treasury yields. While the big question around monetary policy in developed market (DM) economies is …
8th February 2024
Policy support for Chinese equities may facilitate a near-term rebound, but investors probably need to be convinced that the government's attitude towards the private sector has shifted if there is to be a more sustainable rally. Chinese equities have …
7th February 2024
Although last week’s renewed underperformance of US regional banks and equity office REITs sparked fears of another mini banking crisis, a fairly steady decline in the option-adjusted spreads (OAS) of private label commercial mortgage backed securities …
6th February 2024
Oil prices have had only limited impact on US Treasury yields recently, and we suspect that this will remain the case in the next couple of years. So far this month, oil prices have fallen back quite sharply. At around $72 per barrel (pb) at the time of …
5th February 2024
The US Employment Report , released today, showed that non-farm payrolls for January came in at a whooping 353,000 – even more than the upwardly revised 333,000 number for December and almost double analysts’ median expectation. Immediately after the …
2nd February 2024
Despite the Bank of England (BoE) following the Fed in pushing back against imminent rate cuts, Gilt and Treasury yields are on track to post big falls today. That partly reflects renewed concerns over US regional banks, and offers a reminder that for …
1st February 2024
Ahead of the first Fed meeting of 2024, we think there are two points for investors to note about how the central bank might affect markets this year. First, while the Fed may be cautious today, we see scope for Treasury yields to drop a bit more. Despite …
31st January 2024
The US Treasury’s latest borrowing estimates pushed long-dated yields down, and the Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) on Wednesday may add to positive sentiment. But we think that a poor fiscal outlook in the US and more price-sensitive buyers will …
30th January 2024
We think the best days for US investment-grade (IG) corporate bonds will soon be over. One reason is that credit spreads are now already very low. The option-adjusted spread (OAS) of ICE BofA’s index of US IG corporate bonds, for example, dipped below …
29th January 2024
Similar to the late 1990s, we think the economic backdrop in the US won’t stand in the way of a bubble inflating in the S&P 500. But unlike then, we doubt it will help the dollar much. US equities have rallied since GDP data revealed yesterday that growth …
26th January 2024
While the dovish reaction to today’s ECB meeting came as a bit of a surprise, we continue to think that the direction of travel for Bund yields – and most sovereign bond yields – will be down this year. Today’s ECB meeting played out broadly as had been …
25th January 2024
While we expect equities around the world to rebound – as a stock market bubble inflates on the back of growing hype around AI – we suspect that Latin American stock markets will keep lagging. Global stock markets are not off to a great start this year. …
24th January 2024
Although the Bank of Japan (BoJ) stood its ground at its meeting today, we still expect it to hike its policy rate before long; that, we think, could contribute to a higher 10-year JGB yield. The BoJ didn’t make much of a splash in markets earlier today …
23rd January 2024
Judging by the latest rally in some ‘big-tech’ sectors, renewed hype around Artificial Intelligence (AI) seems to explain why the S&P 500 has just racked up a new record high despite a recent rebound (if not today) in the 10-year Treasury yield. (See …
22nd January 2024
US large caps have vastly outperformed UK ones over the past year or so, but that is skewed by the performance of the biggest names on both sides of the Atlantic. Indeed, there is little difference between the two markets on an equal-weighted basis over …
19th January 2024
Although Gilt yields remain elevated and sterling resilient, we expect both to fall over the course of 2024 as disinflationary pressures build in the UK. Data out of the UK released so far this week have indicated mixed progress on the goal of bringing …
18th January 2024
We still forecast the renminbi to make ground against the US dollar by the end of this year, despite the seemingly stiff headwinds it faces. China’s equities and currency were back under pressure today, after the country’s Q4 activity data underwhelmed …
17th January 2024
A hawkish mood has prevailed in markets this year, and comments from the Fed’s Waller today seemed to add fuel to that fire, at least initially. But given how aggressively rate cuts were priced in late last year, investors are still discounting a huge …
16th January 2024
Government bond yield curves in the US, Germany, and the UK seem to be once again on the path towards “normalisation”, or “disinversion”, as short-term yields are close to breaking below long-term ones. And while we think that 10-year yields will drop …
15th January 2024
In contrast to 2023, we expect a strong showing from UK equities this year, helped by a weaker pound and enthusiasm around AI technology. UK’s FTSE 100 started the day with a ~1% jump, after GDP data for November released this morning came in a bit above …
12th January 2024
We wouldn’t be surprised if US bonds and equities fell a bit further in the near term. But, in our view, the Fed remains on track to start easing in March, pointing to renewed gains in US asset prices. December core CPI data out of the US, released …
11th January 2024
We still think that China’s equities could fare well relative to others in the near term, but also that their longer-run prognosis is fairly bleak. The challenging times for China’s stock market have continued today, with the country’s major indices …
10th January 2024
A continued pull-back in the spreads of US private-label commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) since the start of 2024, at a time when those of US high-yield corporate bonds have edged up (see Chart 1) and “risky” assets in general have come under …
9th January 2024
Despite bouncing back a bit in recent days, the spreads of corporate bonds remain near their lowest levels in two years, making them vulnerable to a deterioration in economic conditions. Financial markets are starting the year on the back foot. After a …
8th January 2024
Today’s plunge in the employment component of the US ISM services survey more than took the shine off a slightly stronger than expected US Employment Report . In doing so, it appears to have called at least a temporary halt to the recent correction in the …
5th January 2024
We expect the Japanese yen to make larger gains this year than the Chinese renminbi. The yen and the renminbi, which had rallied over November and much of December, have begun the year on the back foot. Soft PMIs in China earlier this week (even though …
4th January 2024
With most major bond and equity markets on track for a second down day to start the new year, it’s fair to say that financial markets have started 2024 with something of a mild hangover. While reading too much into the first couple of days in the working …
3rd January 2024
Both bond and equity markets have started the year on the back foot. But, while a pause after the rapid rally in most asset prices over the last two months of 2023 would not be surprising, we think the outlook for both bond and, especially, equity prices …
2nd January 2024
We think “risky” assets could struggle relative to “safe” ones in the near term if, as we expect, growth disappoints, although we still think they’ll outperform over next year as a whole. At the time of writing, Thursday’s drop in equity prices had …
21st December 2023
While the valuation gap between “growth” and “value” factors in the US is high by past standards, we suspect that “growth” will generally keep outperforming in the next year or two. Since the start of this year – and as was the case between the Global …
20th December 2023
We expect the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield to rise next year, as the era of negative interest rates there comes to an end and constraints on the bond market ease. And w e think the yield gap vs the US will shift further in favour of the …
19th December 2023
Fed officials have pushed back a bit against market bets for rate cuts today, helping to send yields a bit higher. But the bigger picture is that there has been a massive reassessment of the timing and extent of rate cuts in key economies over the past …
18th December 2023
We think China’s equities could outperform those elsewhere in the near term, but suspect their longer-run outlook is fairly bleak. China’s equities got a bit of a boost earlier today from the country’s November activity data, which showed a healthy …
15th December 2023
While central banks remain reluctant to declare victory over inflation just yet, bond markets appear more than happy to do so on their behalf. With most of the policy rate cuts which we forecast over the next couple of years now already discounted, we now …
14th December 2023
Investors have revised down their expectations for the Fed funds rate a long way in recent weeks. But we think that shift will continue in the coming months, pushing Treasury yields down further. With a broad consensus that the FOMC will leave the Fed …
13th December 2023
While US inflation for November was almost exactly as the analysts’ consensus had predicted, the yields of long-dated government bonds still rose a bit on the news in most places. But we continue to think that yields will generally fall over the next year …
12th December 2023
While the gold price has retreated over the past week or so, we think it is set for a renewed rally next year as the Fed cuts interest rates and long-term real yields fall back further. After a strong run over recent months, the gold price has dropped …
11th December 2023
The global bond rally faced a setback today after the US employment report was released. But we think that yields will resume their downward march before long in most places, including the US. One exception is Japan, where we expect they will rise over …
8th December 2023
We expect the US dollar’s resilience to fade over the next year or so, and forecast it to weaken against most major currencies. There’s been something of a return of the “heads I win, tails you lose” story for the US dollar lately. The “higher for longer” …
7th December 2023
While government bond yields continue to plunge and the main euro-zone equity index has risen to a new high, the rally in US equities has stalled over recent days and the dollar recovered some ground. This suggests to us that the resurgent optimism in …
6th December 2023
Although the relative performance of the three “big-tech” sectors of the S&P 500 has underwhelmed recently, we suspect that they will be at, or near, the front of the pack again in 2024. While the three big-tech “growth-heavy” sectors that contain the …
5th December 2023
Although the spread between the 10-year German and Swiss government bond yields has widened significantly over the past couple of years, we think it will stay close to this level for a long while yet. The soft Swiss CPI data released today has added to …
4th December 2023
Despite how far it has come this year, we think the S&P 500 can make further big gains over time. The S&P 500 has made little ground this week, on net, despite the further big fall in Treasury yields. But it has come a long way lately, thanks both to a …
1st December 2023
Oil prices have seemingly had little spillover to other financial markets over recent months, and we don’t think anything from the latest OPEC+ meeting is likely to prevent a further rally in US Treasuries. While the end of the OPEC+ meeting today sparked …
30th November 2023
While we think both yields will fall next year, we expect a smaller drop in the yield of 10-year Bunds than in that of 10-year Treasuries. The 10-year Bund yield fell ~7bp so far today, after inflation data from Germany and Spain released today suggested …
29th November 2023
Given how far below “fair value” the Swedish krona appears to us, we suspect that its decade-long fall may be coming to an end. The Swedish krona has been the best performing G10 currency so far this month, having risen by nearly 6% against the US dollar. …
28th November 2023
Although pull-backs in credit spreads and in the yields of Treasuries have contributed to a strong performance from US corporate bonds in November, they have underperformed US equities regardless so far this month. We suspect that will generally stay the …
27th November 2023
