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Malaysia’s central bank will probably cut its policy rate further (08.00 BST) We expect the ECB to maintain its current policy stance (12.45 BST) Political developments in the UK could damage trade negotiations with the EU Key Market Themes While the …
9th September 2020
US fiscal negotiations resume but chances of a bipartisan deal remain slim for now Inflation in China probably slowed in August (02.30 BST) We expect the Bank of Canada to keep its policy settings unchanged (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes While the US …
8th September 2020
8 th round of UK-EU post-Brexit trade talks due to commence (Mon.) US fiscal negotiations set to resume as lawmakers return from August recess (Tue.) ECB likely to deliver a dovish message, but keep its policy settings unchanged (Thu.) Key Market Themes …
4th September 2020
We think that the ISM non-manufacturing index was broadly stable last month (15.00 BST) We expect euro-zone retail sales to have risen marginally in July (10.00 BST) Turkey’s headline inflation probably edged up in August (08.00 BST) Key Market Themes …
2nd September 2020
Front runners to replace Shinzo Abe signal policy continuity in Japan Chile’s central bank may announce government bond purchases later on Monday The US ADP employment report might be a poor guide to the official BLS figures (13.15 BST) Key Market Themes …
1st September 2020
We think that Japan’s retail sales and industrial production recovered further in July (Monday) Chile’s central bank may announce government bond purchases (Tuesday) We suspect that US non-farm payrolls rose by one million in August (Friday) Key Market …
28th August 2020
BoE Governor Andrew Baily to speak at the virtual Jackson Hole Symposium (14.05 BST) We expect real personal spending in the US to have rebounded further in July (13.30 BST) We think the EC Economic Sentiment Indicator rose only marginally in August …
27th August 2020
Chair Powell may hint at changes to the Fed’s policy framework in his Jackson Hole speech Switzerland’s economy probably contracted by 8% q/q in Q2 (06.45 BST) We think that the Bank of Korea will announce more unconventional policy measures Key Market …
26th August 2020
US Republican National Convention begins today Germany’s Ifo survey likely to point to a slowing economic recovery (Tue., 09.00 BST) We think Hungary’s central bank will keep its base rate on hold at 0.60% (Tue., 13.00 BST) Key Market Themes Although …
24th August 2020
Q2 GDP data likely to show that Switzerland and the Nordics got off comparatively lightly Powell’s Jackson Hole speech could flag up changes to the Fed’s strategy & goals (Thu.) We think that the Bank of Korea will announce new unconventional policy …
21st August 2020
Fed minutes likely may hint at shift towards average inflation targeting (Wed., 19.00 BST) We do not anticipate a cut to China’s loan prime rate (Thu., 02.30 BST) Central banks in the Philippines and Sri Lanka will probably cut their policy rates by 50bp …
19th August 2020
We think that UK CPI inflation fell from +0.6% in June to +0.5% in July (07.00 BST) Bank Indonesia is likely to hold its policy rate for now, but resume easing later in the year Track the latest high-frequency data on COVID-19 cases and economic …
18th August 2020
We think that the central banks in Norway, Turkey and Indonesia will keep rates on hold … … but expect further easing in Sri Lanka and the Philippines (Thu.) The Fed minutes may show that policymakers are considering additional QE (Wed.) Key Market Themes …
14th August 2020
We think that China’s economic recovery gathered pace in July (03.00 BST) US retail sales may have risen above pre-pandemic levels last month (13.30 BST) We suspect that Colombia’s GDP contracted by almost 15% in Q2 (17.00 BST) Key Market Themes While the …
13th August 2020
US jobless claims probably increased by 1,000,000 last week (13.30 BST) We think that Mexico’s central bank will cut its policy rate by 50bp to 4.50% (19.00 BST) In contrast, Peru’s central bank is likely to stand pat, but may hint that QE is coming Key …
12th August 2020
UK GDP is likely to have risen by around 7.5% m/m in June (07.00 BST) Industrial production in the euro-zone probably rebounded further in June (10.00 BST) We think that US CPI inflation fell to 0.3% in July (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes While a limited …
11th August 2020
The UK unemployment rate is likely to have risen in June (07.00 BST) US producer prices figures may suggest disinflationary pressures are easing (13.30 BST) We think that Russia’s GDP fell by almost 10% y/y in Q2 (17.00 BST) Key Market Themes We think …
10th August 2020
The UK economy probably rebounded in June (Wednesday) Mexico’s central bank likely to cut its policy rate by 50bp (Thursday) We think that US retail sales and industrial production rose strongly in July (Friday) Key Market Themes Today’s US Employment …
7th August 2020
We think US non-farm payrolls increased by 1 million in July (13.30 BST) We expect China’s exports to have fallen by 4.0% y/y in July Headline inflation in Brazil probably rose slightly last month, from 3.3% to 3.4% (13.00 BST) Key Market Themes Although …
6th August 2020
The Bank of England is unlikely to announce further stimulus measures (07.00 BST) We think that Brazil’s central bank will cut its policy rate by 25bp to 2.00% We expect GDP in the Philippines to have fallen by 18% y/y in Q2 (09.00 BST) Key Market Themes …
5th August 2020
Euro-zone retail sales probably rose close to pre-pandemic levels in June (09.00 BST) ISM Non-Manufacturing Survey likely to point to a slowing recovery in the US (15.00 BST) We expect Brazil’s central bank to cut its policy rate, but the Bank of Thailand …
4th August 2020
July PMI surveys will probably point to a continued recovery in much of the world We expect a one million gain in US non-farm payrolls in July (Friday) Brazil’s central bank is likely to cut its policy rate by 25bp (Wednesday) Key Market Themes We suspect …
31st July 2020
GDP figures to reveal the extent of the slump in activity in Q2 in the US, Germany & Mexico Euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator likely to have risen further in July (10.00 BST) Switzerland’s KOF Economic Barometer probably rebounded sharply in July …
29th July 2020
Fed may strengthen its forward guidance at its upcoming meeting (19.00 BST) Consumer credit in the UK likely to have fallen in June (09.30 BST) We think Hong Kong’s GDP contracted by 2% q/q in Q2 (09.30 BST) Key Market Themes It is hard to envisage much …
28th July 2020
Fed may strengthen its forward guidance at its upcoming meeting (Wednesday) GDP figures to reveal the extent of the downturn in the US & Germany in Q2 We expect China’s official PMIs to have risen further in July (Friday) Key Market Themes While we …
24th July 2020
UK retail sales likely to have rebounded strongly in June (07.00 BST) Flash PMIs to provide insight on the pace of the recovery in the US in July (14.45 BST) We expect the central bank of Russia to cut its policy rate by 25bp, to 4.25% (11.30 BST) Key …
23rd July 2020
US Senate Banking Committee due to vote on nominees to the Fed’s Board of Governors We think that Japan’s manufacturing and services PMIs both rose this month (01.30 BST) Inflation in Canada probably climbed out of negative territory in June (13.30 BST) …
21st July 2020
US Congress set to start negotiating a new fiscal support package Euro-zone flash PMIs likely to point to a further recovery in activity in July (Friday) We expect the central bank of Russia to cut its policy rate by 25bp, to 4.25% (Friday) Key Market …
17th July 2020
We think that US housing starts rose sharply in June (13.30 BST) Rising virus case numbers may have weighed on US consumer confidence in July (15.00 BST) Track the latest high-frequency data on the impact of coronavirus here Key Market Themes Failure by …
16th July 2020
ECB to leave its policy setting unchanged but reiterate that it is willing to do more (12.45 BST) We think that US retail sales rose by 5.3% m/m in June (13.30 BST) China’s GDP probably expanded by 3.0% y/y in Q2 (03.00 BST) Key Market Themes Yesterday’s …
15th July 2020
China’s import data are likely to point to stronger domestic demand in June Activity in the UK and Euro-zone probably rebounded in May (07.00 BST & 10.00 BST) We think core consumer prices in the US ticked up last month (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes The …
13th July 2020
Global economic and market analysis from Capital Economics We think that the BoC, the BoJ, Bank of Korea and the ECB will stand pat (Wed. & Thu.) … … but expect the central bank of Indonesia to cut its policy rate by another 25bp (Thu.) Spending & …
10th July 2020
We think employment in Canada increased by an above-consensus 1m in June (13.30 BST) Brazil’s headline inflation likely to have risen from 1.9% to 2.2% in June (13.00 BST) We expect US producer prices to have rebounded in June (13.30 BST) Key Market …
9th July 2020
Eurogroup meeting could provide further details on the EU’s €750bn recovery fund We think that China’s inflation ticked up in June (02.30 BST) US initial jobless claim figures may suggest the economic recovery is losing steam (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes …
8th July 2020
UK government set to announce further fiscal stimulus measures Russia’s headline inflation likely to have risen from 3.0% to about 3.3% in June (17.00 BST) We think Norway’s GDP rebounded by 10% m/m in May (07.00 BST) Key Market Themes The yield of …
7th July 2020
We expect the composite PMIs for Spain & Italy to have rebounded in June… … and the euro-zone composite PMI to be revised up from its flash estimate (09.00 BST) Turkey’s headline inflation probably edged up from 11.4% to 11.5% in June (08.00 BST) Key …
2nd July 2020
We think that US non-farm payrolls rose by 5 million in June (13.30 BST) The euro-zone unemployment rate probably rose from 7.3% to 7.6% in May (10.00 BST) We expect Swiss core inflation to have remained in negative territory last month (07.30 BST) Key …
1st July 2020
Sweden’s Riksbank likely to stand pat on Wednesday, but cut rates later this year (07.30 BST) The ISM manufacturing survey will probably point to a strong rebound in June (15.00 BST) The Fed’s June minutes may give further clues on yield curve control …
30th June 2020
China’s official PMIs will probably show that infrastructure construction accelerated We think that US consumer confidence rebounded in June (15.00 BST) Colombia’s central bank is likely to cut its policy rate to 2.25% (16.00 BST) Key Market Themes The …
29th June 2020
We think that real personal spending in the US increased by 12% m/m in May (13.30 BST) ECB data to reveal whether bank lending growth in the E-Z continued to rise in May (9.00 BST) We expect Mexico’s central bank to cut its policy rate by 50bp to 5.00% …
25th June 2020
We think that central banks in Turkey, Egypt and Mexico will cut rates further … … but expect monetary policymakers in the Philippines to remain on hold (09.00 BST) US equipment investment may have started to rebound in May (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes …
24th June 2020
We think that the Markit Flash PMIs will show a marked improvement from May … … especially in the US where we forecast both PMIs to be above 50 Hungary’s central bank is likely to stand pat for now, but more easing is coming in our view Key Market Themes …
22nd June 2020
Flash PMIs are likely to suggest that economic recoveries continued in June We expect central banks in Mexico, Turkey, Thailand and Egypt to cut rates next week… …but those in New Zealand, the Czech Republic, Hungary and the Philippines to stand pat Key …
19th June 2020
EU leaders set to discuss the EC’s proposal for a €750bn joint recovery fund (09.00 BST) Russia’s central bank is likely to cut its policy rate to a post-Soviet low of 4.50% (14.00 BST) May UK retail sales data to give first indication of the speed of the …
18th June 2020
We think that central banks in Brazil, Indonesia and Thailand will cut their policy rates further The Bank of England is likely to expand its QE programme by £100bn (12.00 BST) US initial jobless claims probably fell further last week (13.30 BST) Key …
17th June 2020
Central bank of Brazil likely to cut its policy rate by 75bp to 2.25% We think that headline inflation fell from 0.8% to 0.6% in the UK last month … (07.00 BST) … and that it remained in negative territory in Canada (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes Even if …
16th June 2020
US retail sales and industrial production probably rebounded in May (13.30 BST & 14.45 BST) We expect the Bank of Japan to expand its lending schemes Central banks in Poland and Chile likely to stand pat on Tuesday Key Market Themes Concerns about a …
15th June 2020
BoE likely to announce more QE, while BoJ may expand its lending programmes We think US retail sales rebounded in May (Tuesday) Fiscal stimulus probably pushed up China’s investment growth in May (Monday) Key Market Themes Neither the Fed ’s latest …
12th June 2020
We expect a 20% m/m drop in UK’s GDP in April (07.00 BST) Euro-zone’s industrial production is likely to have plunged in April (10.00 BST) The University of Michigan consumer confidence index probably continued to rebound in June Key Market Themes We …
11th June 2020
Fed likely to strengthen its forward guidance on interest rates (Wednesday) China’s exports probably fell by 2.0% y/y in May (Sunday) We think that Brazil’s headline inflation fell from to 2.4% to just 1.8% in May (Wednesday) Key Market Themes Today’s far …
5th June 2020
