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ECB and BoJ likely to stick to their guns; rate hikes likely in Brazil and Colombia US GDP growth probably slowed significantly in Q3 (Thu.) We think surging energy prices have driven euro-zone inflation higher this month (Fri.) Key Market Themes While …
22nd October 2021
Flash composite PMIs for the euro-zone and the UK probably dropped back in October We expect the central bank of Russia to hike its policy rate by 50bp, to 7.25% (11.30 BST) Inflation in Mexico likely to have stayed above target in mid-October (12.00 BST) …
21st October 2021
UK public borrowing may have fallen by more than expected in September (07.00 BST) We anticipate a 100bp rate cut from Turkey’s central bank (12.00 BST) Read our highest conviction macroeconomic forecasts and their market implications here Key Market …
20th October 2021
We expect Indonesia’s central bank to leave rates on hold tomorrow... (08.20 BST) ... while Hungary’s may deliver a 15bp hike (13.00 BST) Read our highest conviction macroeconomic forecasts and their market implications here Key Market Themes Rather than …
18th October 2021
China’s September activity data may point to further economic slowdown (Mon.) We think US industrial production fell sharply in September (Mon.) Turkey’s central bank will probably cut its policy rate by 100bp (Thu.) Key Market Themes We doubt that …
15th October 2021
Sacking of MPC members at Turkey’s central bank paves the way for more loosening A drop in car sales may have hit growth in US retail sales last month (13.30 BST) We think that US consumer confidence remained subdued in early October (15.00 BST) Key …
14th October 2021
FOMC minutes may shed more light on the Fed’s tapering plans (Wed. 19.00 BST) We expect Chile’s central bank to hike its policy rate by 100bp (Wed. 22.00 BST) China’s producer price inflation probably rose to a record high last month (Thu. 02.30 BST) Key …
13th October 2021
Bank of Korea probably on hold this week, but could signal November rate hike UK unemployment rate likely to have fallen in August (07.00 BST) JOLTS & NFIB surveys may provide further evidence of labour shortages in the US Key Market Themes We expect the …
11th October 2021
Shortages and rise in energy prices probably boosted US CPI inflation in September (Wed.) China’s producer price inflation may have hit an all-time high last month (Thu.) We think US retail sales were dragged down by a plunge in auto sales in September …
8th October 2021
We expect a 50bp rate hike from Peru’s central bank (00.00 BST) Inflation in Brazil probably rose again in September (13.00 BST) US non-farm payrolls likely to have increased by around 500,000 last month (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes Emerging market (EM) …
7th October 2021
We expect the RBNZ to hike rates by 25bp, after delaying in August (02.00 BST) We think euro-zone retail sales will remain unchanged (10.00 BST) We expect Poland’s central bank to keep rates on hold despite rising inflation Key Market Themes The longer …
5th October 2021
RBA likely to keep its policy settings unchanged (04.30 BST) Romania’s central bank may lay the foundations for a rate hike next month US ISM services index probably fell again in September (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes Even if concerns about potential …
4th October 2021
RBNZ likely to hike its policy rate by 25bp (Wednesday) Germany’s industrial production probably faltered in August (Thursday) We think that US non-farm payrolls rose by around 500,000 last month (Friday) Key Market Themes We think that three recent …
1st October 2021
We think euro-zone inflation picked up this month to its highest level since 2008 (10.00 BST) US real consumption probably rose slightly in August... (13.30 BST) ... but supply shortages may have weighed on the ISM index in September (15.00 BST) Key …
30th September 2021
We think industrial production in Japan increased last month (00.50 BST) China’s PMI data will probably point to further loss of momentum in September (02.00 BST) Central banks in Czechia, Mexico, and Colombia likely to hike rates Key Market Themes …
29th September 2021
Speeches from Fed officials could give details on what drove hawkish shift in rate projections Australia’s retail sales probably fell by around 2.5% m/m in August (02.30 BST) Read our new CE Spotlight series for an in-depth look at the global inflation …
27th September 2021
US House of Representatives may vote on bipartisan infrastructure bill Lengthy coalition negotiations likely to follow German elections (Sunday) We think the US ISM manufacturing index dropped back in September (Friday) Key Market Themes We expect the …
24th September 2021
We expect Germany’s Ifo index to have declined again in September (09.00 BST) Brazil’s inflation probably rose to around 10% in the first half of September (13.00 BST) Read our latest reports on Evergrande’s collapse and its macro & market implications …
23rd September 2021
The FOMC’s latest “dot plot” is likely to be the focus of today’s announcement We expect Norges Bank to be the first G10 central bank to hike rates … (09.00 BST) … and the Bank of England to keep rates and asset purchases unchanged (12.00 BST) Key Market …
22nd September 2021
Probably too soon for a Fed tapering announcement (19.00 BST) China’s loan prime rate (LPR) likely to be steady for now, but to fall before long (02.30 BST) We expect Brazil’s central bank to hike its policy rate by 100bp (22.00 BST) Key Market Themes …
21st September 2021
We think that UK public sector net borrowing remained elevated in August (07.00 BST) Policymakers in Sweden look likely to leave rates on hold … (08.30 BST) … but we expect Hungary’s central bank to hike its policy rate by another 30bp (13.00 BST) Key …
20th September 2021
Probably too soon for the Fed to announce tapering; new 2024 rate projections due (Wed.) Brazil’s central bank likely to raise its policy rate by a further 100bp (Wed.) We think Norway’s central bank will begin its tightening cycle with a 25bp hike (Thu.) …
17th September 2021
We think that UK retail sales rebounded last month (07.00 BST) US consumer confidence probably remained subdued during September (15.00 BST) See our latest research on inflation from the CE Spotlight series here Key Market Themes Although we doubt the …
16th September 2021
We think lockdowns weighed on employment in Australia in August (01.30 BST) US retail sales probably fell again last month (13.30 BST) See our latest top-line forecasts across economies and markets here Key Market Themes The renewed rise in consumer price …
15th September 2021
The UK unemployment rate probably declined in July … … but the annual pace of earnings growth is likely to have dropped too (07.00 BST) We forecast that US core inflation fell from 4.3% in July to 4.1% in August (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes Despite …
13th September 2021
We expect a smaller rise in US core consumer prices in August (Tuesday)… …but think that inflation rose sharply in the UK last month (Wednesday) China’s activity data may suggest that its economy is losing further momentum (Wednesday) Key Market Themes …
10th September 2021
We think the UK economy lost some momentum in July (07.00 BST) We expect Russia’s central bank to hike by 50bp at its meeting on Friday (11.30 BST) US producer prices for August may show further inflationary pressure (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes The ECB …
9th September 2021
We think that factory-gate inflation in China reached a new high in August (02.30 BST) The ECB is likely to prepare the ground for tapering its emergency asset purchases (12.45 BST) Inflation last month probably remained above central bank targets in both …
8th September 2021
We think CPI inflation in China held broadly steady at around 1% last month (02.30 BST) We expect the Bank of Canada to leave its policy settings unchanged (15.00 BST) Inflation in Russia probably rose further above the central bank’s target in August …
7th September 2021
We think that the RBA will press ahead with tapering its asset purchases (04.30 BST) Supply bottlenecks probably continued to weigh on German industrial production (07.00 BST) We think South Africa’s economy barely expanded in Q2 (10.30 BST) Key Market …
6th September 2021
Weaker demand probably weighed on China’s trade in August (Tue.) Inflation probably remained above target in Brazil, Mexico, Chile & Colombia in August We think the ECB will decide to scale back its emergency asset purchases next week (Thu.) Key Market …
3rd September 2021
We doubt that a further fall in Turkey’s inflation will prompt rate cuts quite yet (08.00 BST) Euro-zone retail sales probably dipped in July (10.00 BST) We expect a 750,000 rise in US non-farm payrolls in August (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes Although …
2nd September 2021
We expect the US ISM Manufacturing Index fell further in August (15.00 BST) Euro-zone unemployment probably ticked down in July (10.00 BST) We think that Brazil’s GDP growth slowed to 0.2% q/q in Q2 (08.00 BST) Key Market Themes While we think that …
31st August 2021
Sweden’s GDP growth probably increased last quarter (08.30 BST) US real consumption likely to have fallen back in July (13.30 BST) Powell due to speak at virtual Jackson Hole conference (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes The S&P 500 remains within a whisker of …
26th August 2021
We expect the Bank of Korea to start tightening, despite recent virus wave Account of ECB’s July meeting may shed more light on changes to its forward guidance Further rise in Brazil’s inflation probably paves the way for another big rate hike next month …
25th August 2021
We think that inflation in Brazil rose further in the first half of this month (13.00 BST) We expect US core durable goods orders increased again last month (13.30 BST) Industrial production growth in Russia probably remained elevated in July (17.00 BST) …
24th August 2021
Mexico’s inflation probably remained well above target in the first half of August (12.00 BST) We expect a 30bp rate hike from Hungary’s central bank (13.00 BST) Read our highest conviction macroeconomic forecasts and their market implications here Key …
23rd August 2021
US durable goods orders probably saw another decent rise in July (Wed.) The account of July’s ECB meeting may reveal views on changes to forward guidance (Thu.) We don’t expect a definitive statement on tapering from the Fed’s Powell at Jackson Hole …
20th August 2021
We expect China’s central bank to leave its benchmark rate on hold for now (02.00 BST) We think retail sales growth in the UK fell back in July... (07.00 BST) ... but it probably rebounded strongly in Canada in June (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes The muted …
19th August 2021
We think employment in Australia fell last month due to lockdowns (02.30 BST) We expect Norway’s central bank to leave policy unchanged until next month (09.00 BST) Housing price gains in Canada probably accelerated in July (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes …
18th August 2021
We expect policymakers in New Zealand to hike rates by 25bp (03.00 BST) We think that inflation in the UK fell back a bit last month (07.00 BST) FOMC minutes from July could provide more details on tapering discussions (14.00 BST) Key Market Themes We …
17th August 2021
US retail sales for July likely to be consistent with slower Q3 consumption growth (13.30 BST) We expect that Euro-zone employment growth picked up in Q2 (10.00 BST) In the UK, underlying wage pressures probably remained subdued in June (07.00 BST) Key …
16th August 2021
Euro-zone employment probably rebounded in Q2 (Tue.) FOMC minutes may provide some clarity on the central bank’s plans for tapering (Wed.) We expect the RBNZ to surprise with a 50bp hike (Wed.) Key Market Themes In our view, most ‘ risky’ assets are …
13th August 2021
We expect Mexico’s central bank to hike its policy rate by 25bp later today (19.00 BST) Sweden’s core inflation was probably very weak in July (08.30 BST) Virus concerns likely to have weighed on US consumer confidence in August (15.00 BST) Key Market …
12th August 2021
US headline and core consumer prices probably rose at a slower pace last month (13.30 BST) US Senate on the cusp of passing the bipartisan infrastructure package Brazil’s tightening cycle probably has much further to go, as inflation hits 9% Key Market …
10th August 2021
We think that core inflation fell further below target in Norway in July (07.00 BST) Headline inflation in Brazil probably rose again, to nearly 9% (13.00 BST) US Senate moving closer to passing bipartisan infrastructure package Key Market Themes Our …
9th August 2021
US July CPI data likely to point to another strong monthly rise in prices (Wednesday) China’s headline inflation probably eased further last month (Monday) We expect the central bank of Mexico to hike its policy rate by 25bp, to 4.5% (Thursday) Key Market …
6th August 2021
We expect US non-farm payrolls to have risen by about 650,000 in July (13.30 BST) We think Germany’s industrial production rose by 2% m/m in June (07.00 BST) Wage growth in Japan probably edged up to around 2% in June (08.30 BST) Key Market Themes The …
5th August 2021
The Bank of England is likely to keep policy unchanged at its upcoming meeting… (12.00 BST) … but we expect central banks in Brazil and Czechia to hike rates We think inflation rose further in Russia (17.00 BST) Key Market Themes The share prices of most …
4th August 2021
US ADP report will give first clues about the health of the labour market in July (13.15 BST) We expect Brazil’s central bank to hike its policy rate by 100bp, to 5.25% (22.30 BST) Euro-zone retail sales probably rose by around 2% m/m in June (10.00 BST) …
3rd August 2021
