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We expect China’s central bank to leave its benchmark rate on hold for now (02.00 BST) We think retail sales growth in the UK fell back in July... (07.00 BST) ... but it probably rebounded strongly in Canada in June (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes The muted …
19th August 2021
We think employment in Australia fell last month due to lockdowns (02.30 BST) We expect Norway’s central bank to leave policy unchanged until next month (09.00 BST) Housing price gains in Canada probably accelerated in July (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes …
18th August 2021
We expect policymakers in New Zealand to hike rates by 25bp (03.00 BST) We think that inflation in the UK fell back a bit last month (07.00 BST) FOMC minutes from July could provide more details on tapering discussions (14.00 BST) Key Market Themes We …
17th August 2021
US retail sales for July likely to be consistent with slower Q3 consumption growth (13.30 BST) We expect that Euro-zone employment growth picked up in Q2 (10.00 BST) In the UK, underlying wage pressures probably remained subdued in June (07.00 BST) Key …
16th August 2021
Euro-zone employment probably rebounded in Q2 (Tue.) FOMC minutes may provide some clarity on the central bank’s plans for tapering (Wed.) We expect the RBNZ to surprise with a 50bp hike (Wed.) Key Market Themes In our view, most ‘ risky’ assets are …
13th August 2021
We expect Mexico’s central bank to hike its policy rate by 25bp later today (19.00 BST) Sweden’s core inflation was probably very weak in July (08.30 BST) Virus concerns likely to have weighed on US consumer confidence in August (15.00 BST) Key Market …
12th August 2021
US headline and core consumer prices probably rose at a slower pace last month (13.30 BST) US Senate on the cusp of passing the bipartisan infrastructure package Brazil’s tightening cycle probably has much further to go, as inflation hits 9% Key Market …
10th August 2021
We think that core inflation fell further below target in Norway in July (07.00 BST) Headline inflation in Brazil probably rose again, to nearly 9% (13.00 BST) US Senate moving closer to passing bipartisan infrastructure package Key Market Themes Our …
9th August 2021
US July CPI data likely to point to another strong monthly rise in prices (Wednesday) China’s headline inflation probably eased further last month (Monday) We expect the central bank of Mexico to hike its policy rate by 25bp, to 4.5% (Thursday) Key Market …
6th August 2021
We expect US non-farm payrolls to have risen by about 650,000 in July (13.30 BST) We think Germany’s industrial production rose by 2% m/m in June (07.00 BST) Wage growth in Japan probably edged up to around 2% in June (08.30 BST) Key Market Themes The …
5th August 2021
The Bank of England is likely to keep policy unchanged at its upcoming meeting… (12.00 BST) … but we expect central banks in Brazil and Czechia to hike rates We think inflation rose further in Russia (17.00 BST) Key Market Themes The share prices of most …
4th August 2021
US ADP report will give first clues about the health of the labour market in July (13.15 BST) We expect Brazil’s central bank to hike its policy rate by 100bp, to 5.25% (22.30 BST) Euro-zone retail sales probably rose by around 2% m/m in June (10.00 BST) …
3rd August 2021
We expect the RBA to push back tapering its asset purchases to November (04.30 BST) We forecast that headline inflation in Turkey rose to 19% y/y in July (08.00 BST) Read our highest conviction macroeconomic forecasts and their market implications here …
2nd August 2021
We think that US non-farm payrolls rose by about 650,000 in July (Friday) Early end to the BoE’s assets purchases looks unlikely (Thursday) RBA may delay the tapering of its asset purchases in light of recent lockdowns (Tuesday) Key Market Themes Although …
30th July 2021
We think that inflation edged up in the euro-zone last month … (10.00 BST) … while Q2 GDP data are likely to show that the recovery there accelerated (10.00 BST) Personal spending in the US probably rose in June even as income dropped back (13.30 BST) Key …
29th July 2021
Sweden’s GDP likely to have risen back above pre-pandemic level (08.30 BST) We think the euro-zone’s ESI rose to a 22-year high this month (10.00 BST) US GDP growth probably accelerated in Q2, but Q3 looks less promising (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes The …
28th July 2021
Fed unlikely to be ready to issue tapering guidance (19.00 BST) Canada’s headline inflation probably fell from 3.6% to about 3.2% in June (13.30 BST) We are now anticipating a faster tightening cycle in Hungary Key Market Themes Although equity indices in …
27th July 2021
We think UK retail sales fell further in May as consumption shifted to services (07.00 BST) Markit PMIs for the euro-zone are likely to indicate a continued expansion in July (09.00 BST) Russia’s central bank is likely to raise its policy rate by 100bp …
22nd July 2021
We think central banks in Indonesia and South Africa will leave policy on hold tomorrow Inflation in Mexico probably remained high in the first half of July (12.00 BST) The ECB will probably amend its policy statement to account for its new target (12.45 …
21st July 2021
UK government borrowing probably undershot the OBR’s forecast in June (07.00 BST) We think Korea’s exports levelled off in the first 20 days of June (00.00 BST) Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their implication here Key Market Themes We …
20th July 2021
Inflation in Japan may have turned positive in June (00.30 BST) China’s benchmark loan prime rate unlikely to change despite RRR cut (02.30 BST) US housing starts probably rebounded in June (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes In recent weeks, it has often …
19th July 2021
ECB unlikely to change policy settings, but may amend forward guidance (Thu.) We expect Russia’s central bank to hike its policy rate by 100bp (Thu.) Flash composite PMIs probably rose in the euro-zone, but fell in the UK, this month (Fri.) Key Market …
16th July 2021
We expect a 25bp policy rate hike in Chile later on Wednesday (23.00 BST) We think that activity data will point to a further slowdown in China’s economy (03.00 BST) Supply constraints may have caused US manufacturing output to fall in May (14.15 BST) Key …
14th July 2021
New Zealand’s central bank is likely to strike a hawkish tone (02.00 BST) UK headline inflation probably edged up last month (07.00 BST) We think that the Bank of Canada will taper its asset purchases further (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes While the …
13th July 2021
We think that US core CPI inflation rose above 4% last month (13.30 BST) China’s June trade data should show how much disruption port closures caused Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key Market Themes The …
12th July 2021
ECB announces revamp of its policy framework, including new inflation target China’s June inflation data may point to easing price pressures (02.30 BST) UK GDP probably grew strongly in May as COVID-19 restrictions lifted (07.00 BST) Key Market Themes …
8th July 2021
We expect Poland’s central bank to stay on hold but revise up its forecast for GDP and inflation Inflation probably remained unchanged in Mexico last month (12.00 BST) … … while inflation is likely to have edged up in Brazil and Chile (13.00 BST) Key …
7th July 2021
Fed minutes may shed more light on officials’ latest thinking about tapering (14.00 BST) We expect Germany’s industrial production to have edged up in May (07.00 BST) Russia’s headline inflation probably rose last month (17.00 BST) Key Market Themes …
6th July 2021
EZ retail sales for May likely to underline the strength of economic recovery (Tue.) FOMC minutes may provide detail on tapering discussion (Wed.) Reopening probably boosted UK GDP in May (Fri.) Key Market Themes Although the 10-year Treasury yield hardly …
2nd July 2021
We expect US non-farm payrolls to have risen by around 500,000 in June (13.30 BST) The US trade deficit probably widened again in May (13.30 BST) Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key Market Themes The US …
1st July 2021
We think Sweden’s Riksbank could signal a rate hike in late 2023 (08.30 BST) June’s ISM Manufacturing Index may provide insight on recent supply shortages (15.00 BST) Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key …
30th June 2021
We expect that China’s manufacturing PMIs edged down in June (02.00 BST) The flash estimate of euro-zone HICP inflation probably fell slightly in June (10.00 BST) Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key Market …
29th June 2021
UK consumer credit likely to have increased as the economy reopened (09.30 BST) We think economic sentiment in the euro-zone continued to improve (10.00 BST) Colombia’s central bank will probably stay on hold, but sound more hawkish Key Market Themes …
28th June 2021
Euro-zone inflation likely to have risen above 2% as the economy re-opened (Wed.) June PMIs for Asia may suggest that demand for the region’s exports has peaked (Thu.) We think labour supply shortages continued to limit gains in US payrolls this month …
25th June 2021
We think that US real consumption fell slightly in May… … while change in the core PCE deflator remained high, at 0.6% m/m (13.30 BST) Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key Market Themes The yield of 10-year …
24th June 2021
Germany’s Ifo survey likely to rise again this month (09.00 BST) We don’t expect BoE to suggest it is any closer to tightening policy (12.00 BST) Banxico likely to look through rising inflation (19.00 BST) Key Market Themes As the dust finally begins to …
23rd June 2021
Fed Chair Powell may comment on the FOMC apparent hawkish shift in House testimony Q&A PMIs could reveal whether shortages continued to weigh on manufacturing output in June We expect the Czech central bank to hike its policy rate by 25bp, to 0.5% (13.30 …
22nd June 2021
Euro-zone and UK composite PMIs probably rose further in June (Wed.) BoE meeting should provide clues as to how concerned it is about rising inflation (Thu.) We think US durable orders rose in May, but real consumption declined Key Market Themes We think …
18th June 2021
We think UK retail sales rose further above their pre-pandemic level in May (07.00 BST) The Bank of Japan may extend its emerging lending facility Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key Market Themes The market …
17th June 2021
We expect both the SNB and Norges Bank to leave interest rates on hold… (8.30/9.00 BST) … and Turkey’s central bank is likely to also stand pat, for now (12.00 BST) Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key Market …
16th June 2021
Fed may begin discussion of how to eventually begin tapering its asset purchases (19.00 BST) We think industrial production growth in China slowed last month (03.00 BST) We expect the central bank of Brazil to raise its policy rate by 75bp to 4.25% (22.30 …
15th June 2021
UK unemployment rate probably fell while wage growth rose in April (07.00 BST) We think that US retail sales fell back from a high level in May (13.30 BST) US industrial production may have risen at a slower pace last month (14.15 BST) Key Market Themes …
14th June 2021
US consumer confidence and inflation expectations probably picked up in April (15.00 BST) We think UK GDP expanded by 3% m/m in April (07.00 BST) Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key Market Themes Despite the …
10th June 2021
ECB may prepare the ground for gradual tapering of PEPP purchases later this year (12.45 BST) US core CPI inflation probably hit a 28-year high in May (13.30 BST) Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key Market …
9th June 2021
We think May producer price inflation in China rose to its highest level since 2008 (02.30 BST) Central banks in Canada, Poland and Chile are likely to leave rates unchanged Headline inflation probably fell in Mexico in May, but rose in Brazil Key Market …
8th June 2021
Industrial production in Germany probably continued to expand in April (07.00 BST) We forecast only 1.5% Q1 GDP growth in South Africa due the latest virus wave (10.30 BST) We think Chile’s central bank will keep its guidance of tightening later this year …
7th June 2021
We think US core CPI inflation to rose from 3.0% to 3.7% in May (Thu.) ECB likely to drop pledge to keep PEPP purchases significantly higher than in Jan./Feb. (Thu.) The central bank of Russia will probably hike its policy rate by 25bp to 2.25% (Fri.) Key …
4th June 2021
We think that US nonfarm payrolls rose by around 500k in May (13.30 BST) Employment in Canada may have fallen again last month (13.30 BST) See our highest conviction macro calls and their market implications here Key Market Themes After a turbulent first …
3rd June 2021
We think that Australia’s GDP expanded by about 0.5% q/q in Q1 (02.30 BST) UK consumer credit data are likely to show that card spending picked up (09.30 BST) Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key Market Themes …
1st June 2021
We expect US non-farm payroll to have risen by 500,000 this month (Fri.) ISM surveys are likely to suggest that supply constraints in the US intensified (Tue. & Thu.) We think China’s manufacturing and services PMIs edged up in May (Mon. & Thu.) Key …
28th May 2021
