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We think euro-zone retail sales fell in December (10.00 GMT) The Omicron wave may have caused US payrolls to fall in January (13.30 GMT) Virus cases may have weighed on employment in Canada as well (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes Today’s hawkish surprises …
3rd February 2022
We expect the Bank of England to raise Bank Rate by 25bp, to 0.5% (12.00 GMT) In contrast, the ECB will probably keep its policy settings unchanged (12.45 GMT) We think the US ISM services index dropped sharply last month (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes We …
2nd February 2022
Euro-zone inflation probably fell back a bit in January (10.00 GMT) January’s US ADP employment data may give an indication of Omicron’s impact (13.15 GMT) We expect Brazil’s central bank to raise its policy rate by 150bp (21.30 GMT) Key Market Themes …
1st February 2022
We expect the RBA to announce an end to its bond purchases (00.30 GMT) Omicron cases may have weighed on UK households’ borrowing in December (09.30 GMT) The US ISM Manufacturing Index probably fell this month (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes While we think …
31st January 2022
We think that the BOE will hike by 25bp on Thursday … … but that the ECB will leave policy settings unchanged Omicron cases will probably have weighed on US employment growth this month (Fri.) Key Market Themes Even if this month’s falls in equity prices …
28th January 2022
GDP data for Germany may show that its economy contracted in Q4 (09.00 GMT) The Economic Sentiment Indicator for the euro-zone probably fell this month (10.00 GMT) We think Colombia’s central bank will increase the pace of its policy tightening (18.00 …
27th January 2022
Fed likely to hint that a first rate hike may be forthcoming in March (Wed. 19.00 GMT) We think US GDP grew by 4.6% annualised in Q4 (Thu. 13.30 GMT) We expect central banks in Chile and South Africa to hike rates further (Wed. & Thu.) Key Market Themes …
26th January 2022
We suspect that the Bank of Canada will hold off raising rates this month (15.00 GMT) The Fed may hint that a first rate hike is likely to come in March (19.00 GMT) We expect Chile’s central bank to hike by 125bp (21.00 GMT) Key Market Themes Despite its …
25th January 2022
Germany’s IfO Survey probably fell back a bit this month (09.00 GMT) We expect Hungary’s central bank to raise its policy rate by 30bp (13.00 GMT) The Omicron wave may have weighed on consumer confidence in the US (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes US “big …
24th January 2022
Fed officials may issue a hawkish statement at the upcoming FOMC meeting (Wed.) We expect central banks in Chile, Colombia and South Africa to hike rates next week Annual US wage growth may have reached 5% in Q4 (Thu.) Key Market Themes Although we think …
21st January 2022
We expect UK retail sales to have fallen in December (Fri. 07.00 GMT) Japan’s headline inflation probably edged up to 0.8% last month (Thu. 23.30 GMT) Read our key calls for economies and markets in the year ahead here Key Market Themes For the first time …
20th January 2022
We expect China’s central bank to cut its 1-year Loan Prime Rate by 10bp (01.30 GMT) But we think that Turkey’s central bank will pause its easing cycle (11.00 GMT) We also expect interest rates to be left on hold in Indonesia, Malaysia and Norway Key …
19th January 2022
We think that UK inflation will hold steady at its 10-year high of 5.1% (07.00 GMT) We expect Canada’s inflation to have reached its highest level since 1991 (13.30 GMT) Register here for our webinar event “The World in 2022” Key Market Themes With …
18th January 2022
We expect the Bank of Japan will lift its inflation forecast a little We think that the UK labour market held up well in December (07.00 GMT) The Empire State Manufacturing Index in the US probably remained strong (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes Although …
17th January 2022
China’s economy probably failed to gain much momentum last quarter (Monday) The Bank of Japan may revise up its inflation forecasts at its policy meeting (Tuesday) We suspect that UK inflation remained above 5%, a 10-year high, last month (Tuesday) Key …
14th January 2022
We expect US retail sales fell slightly in December (13.30 GMT) We think that the UK economy expanded in November (07.00 GMT) China’s exports probably remained strong last month, while imports softened Key Market Themes The US dollar has started the year …
13th January 2022
We think that US producer price inflation picked up in December (13.30 GMT) Lael Brainard likely to reiterate the hawkish line taken by Fed Chair Powell (15.00 GMT) Register here for our Drop-In event on Omicron, hawkish central banks and the 2022 outlook …
12th January 2022
Consumer and producer price inflation in China probably fell back last month (01.30 GMT) Euro-zone industrial production may have dipped in November (10.00 GMT) We think US headline CPI rose above 7% in December (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes We expect …
11th January 2022
Australia’s trade balance was probably broadly unchanged in November (01.30 GMT) We think Brazil’s inflation fell in December, but remained well above target (12.00 GMT) Chair Powell’s confirmation hearing may provide hints about the Fed’s plans (15.00 …
10th January 2022
We think headline CPI inflation fell to 1.4% in China in December... (Wed.) ... but rose to above 7% in the US last month (Wed.) US retail sales and industrial production probably edged lower in December (Fri.) Key Market Themes Even though investors …
7th January 2022
Peru’s central bank is likely to hike its policy rate by another 50bp on Thursday (23.00 GMT) We expect euro-zone HICP inflation edged up to around 5.0% in December (10.00 GMT) We think that US non-farm payrolls increased by 350,000 last month (13.30 GMT) …
6th January 2022
Fed minutes may shed more light on the timing of lift-off in the US (Wed., 19.00 GMT) We expect the US ISM Services Index to have dropped back in December (Thu., 15.00 GMT) We think Germany’s headline inflation edged down last month (Thu.,13.00 GMT) Key …
5th January 2022
Euro-zone PMIs for December likely to have been revised down (09.00 GMT) Fed minutes may provide more detail on the central bank’s hawkish shift (19.00 GMT) See our latest research on the economic impact of the Omicron variant here Key Market Themes After …
4th January 2022
We think the Bank of Thailand will keep rates on hold tomorrow... (07.05 GMT) … but we expect a 75bp hike from the Czech National Bank (13.30 GMT) Factory closures and virus restrictions may have weighed on China’s PMIs this month Key Market Themes Even …
21st December 2021
We think that UK public borrowing was in line with OBR estimates last month (07.00 GMT) New restrictions probably hurt euro-zone consumer confidence in December (15.00 GMT) Find our Chief Economist’s five key reads from 2021 here Key Market Themes If …
20th December 2021
We think that policymakers in China could deliver a surprise rate cut (Mon.) But the Czech central bank is likely to continue with its tightening cycle (Wed.) We forecast a strong rise in headline US durable goods orders (Thu.) Key Market Themes While the …
17th December 2021
UK retail sale probably rose significantly in November (07.00 GMT) Germany’s Ifo likely to have fallen again in December amid tighter restrictions (09.00 GMT) We expect Russia’s central bank to hike its policy rate by 75bp to 8.25% (10.30 GMT) Key Market …
16th December 2021
We think the BoE will keep policy on hold due to renewed COVID uncertainty (12.00 GMT) We expect the ECB will signal that net asset purchases may continue indefinitely (12.45 GMT) See Key Data & Events below for a full summary of central bank policy …
15th December 2021
The labour market recovery in the UK probably remained robust in October (07.00 GMT) Producer prices in the US are likely to underscore the strength of price pressures (13.30 GMT) We expect central banks in Hungary and Chile to continue their hiking …
13th December 2021
The Fed may accelerate the taper of its asset purchases (Wed.) We think that the Bank of England will keep rates on hold for now (Thu.) The ECB will probably announce plans to end net purchases under the PEPP in March (Thu.) Key Market Themes Although we …
10th December 2021
We think US headline CPI inflation rose to just under 7% in November (13.30 GMT) UK GDP growth probably slowed in October (07.00 GMT) Peru’s central bank likely to hike rates by another 50bp, to 2.0% (23.00 GMT) Key Market Themes While the real has …
9th December 2021
Higher food prices probably sent China’s CPI inflation higher last month (01.30 GMT) We think that inflation in Mexico jumped in November too (12.00 GMT) Peru’s central bank likely to deliver a 50bp rate hike (23.00 GMT) Key Market Themes We think the new …
8th December 2021
We think that Poland’s central bank will hike its policy rate by 75bp… …and the Bank of Canada to keep its policy rate & forward guidance unchanged (15.00 GMT) We expect a 150bp hike from Brazil’s central bank (21.30 GMT) Key Market Themes We doubt that …
7th December 2021
We expect China’s trade surplus to reach a record high RBA not likely to make major policy changes this month, may taper in early 2022 (03.30 GMT) Industrial production in Germany probably declined again in October (07.00 GMT) Key Market Themes The recent …
6th December 2021
Inflation in Turkey probably held steady last month, but will soon rise sharply (07.00 GMT) Euro-zone retail sales may have slipped back in October (10.00 GMT) We expect another 500,000 gain in November’s US non-farm payrolls (13.00 GMT) Key Market Themes …
2nd December 2021
We expect the Caixin Services PMI to show activity slowed further in China (01.45 GMT) We think that unemployment in the euro-zone continued to edge lower (10.00 GMT) Output in Brazil probably rose a bit last quarter but remains very weak (12.00 GMT) Key …
1st December 2021
We think that China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI edged up in November … (01.45 GMT) … but the US ISM manufacturing index was probably broadly stable (15.00 GMT) Headline inflation in Switzerland likely to have fallen slightly last month (07.30 GMT) Key …
30th November 2021
Fed Chair Powell will testify to Congress and could hint at an acceleration of Fed tapering We think China’s official PMIs will show a pick-up in manufacturing activity (01.00 GMT) We forecast that headline euro-zone HICP inflation rose to 4.7% in …
29th November 2021
We think the end of lockdowns boosted Australia’s retail sales in October (00.30 GMT) Switzerland’s GDP growth probably slowed a bit in Q3 (08.00 GMT) Find our latest analysis of Turkey’s currency crisis here Key Market Themes While the accounts of the …
25th November 2021
Sweden’s Riksbank may strike a slightly less dovish tone at its policy meeting (08.30 GMT) Brazil’s inflation probably remained very high in early November (12.00 GMT) We expect Korea’s central bank to raise its policy rate by 25bp Key Market Themes We …
24th November 2021
We think the RBNZ will raise its policy rate by 50bp (02.00 GMT) US durable goods orders probably dropped back in October (13.30 GMT) FOMC minutes may show extent of support for a faster taper (19.00 GMT) Key Market Themes Turkey ’s currency crisis – the …
23rd November 2021
President Biden nominates Powell to a second term, but three Fed Board vacancies remain Supply chain problems probably weighed on PMIs in the euro-zone and the UK BoE MPC member Haskel could provide insight on December’s rate decision (11.00 GMT) Key …
22nd November 2021
Euro-zone PMIs may point to growth slowing in November (Tue.) US household consumption probably rose quite strongly in October (Wed.) Central banks of Korea and New Zealand both likely to hike rates by 25bp next week Key Market Themes We think the recent …
19th November 2021
We think that retail sales in the UK edged higher last month … (07.00 GMT) … but that retail sales in Canada fell in September (13.30 GMT) President Biden could announce his pick for Fed Chair in the next few days Key Market Themes The Turkish lira has …
18th November 2021
Turkey’s central bank may cut its policy rate despite recent lira weakness (11.00 GMT) In contrast, we think policymakers in South Africa will keep interest rates on hold You can find our latest research on major DM and EM central banks here Key Market …
17th November 2021
The UK labour market probably weathered the end of the furlough scheme well (07.00 GMT) We think Hungary’s central bank will raise its policy rate by 30bp (13.00 GMT) US industrial production may have rebounded by 0.7% last month (13.30 GMT) Key Market …
15th November 2021
High inflation may have lifted US retail sales values in October (Tuesday) UK inflation probably rose sharply last month (Wednesday) We expect a 100bp rate hike from Turkey’s central bank (Thursday) Key Market Themes After its most recent surge on the …
12th November 2021
We expect central banks in Mexico and Peru to hike rates by 25bp and 75bp, respectively Supply chain issues may have hampered euro-zone industry in September (10.00 GMT) We think US consumer confidence remained low this month (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes …
11th November 2021
We think UK GDP rose by just 0.1% m/m in September (07.00 GMT) Mexico’s central bank likely to raise its policy rate by 25bp, to 5.0% (19.00 GMT) Australia’s unemployment rate probably edged up in October (01.30 GMT) Key Market Themes US Treasury yields …
10th November 2021
Inflation in China probably picked up to 1.3% in October (01.30 GMT) The Bank of Thailand is likely to keep rates on hold at 0.5% (07.05 GMT) We think US inflation reached 5.9% in October (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes The weakness in China’s real estate …
9th November 2021
