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Sweden’s Riksbank will probably hike by 50bp (08.30 BST) We think US durable goods orders only fell marginally in March (13.30 BST) Catch-up here on today’s CE Advance Drop-In on our revamped Financial Conditions Indices Key Market Themes We don’t …
25th April 2023
We think that Korea’s economy slipped into recession in Q1 (00.00 BST) UK public sector borrowing probably undershot the OBR’s target in 2022/23 (07.00 BST) We expect US home sales and consumer confidence to paint a weak picture (15.00 BST) Key Market …
24th April 2023
We think US GDP grew by 1.8% annualised in Q1 (Thu.) Euro-zone GDP probably rose by a smaller 0.1% q/q (Fri.) We expect the BoJ to abandon Yield Curve Control at Governor Ueda’s first meeting (Fri.) Key Market Themes We think that the more recent …
21st April 2023
Retail sales volumes in the UK probably fell in March (07.00 BST) We think the Composite PMI for the euro-zone remained unchanged in April… (09.00 BST) … while PMIs in the US and UK edged down Key Market Themes We think Fed Chair Powell was right to …
20th April 2023
We think price pressures remained elevated in New Zealand in Q1 (22.45 BST) Sign-up here for tomorrow’s Drop-in on our revamped financial condition indices… …and here to catch up on yesterday’s Drop-In on China’s post-lockdown recovery Key Market …
19th April 2023
UK headline CPI probably fell in March while core pressures remained strong (07.00 BST) See our revised and expanded Financial Conditions Indices for advanced economies here Catch up on today’s Drop-In on China’s post-lockdown recovery here Key Market …
18th April 2023
China’s Q1 GDP data may show robust q/q growth (03.00 BST) We expect Indonesia’s central bank to leave policy unchanged (08.20 BST) Sign up here for our Drop-In on China’s post-lockdown recovery (09.00 BST) Key Market Themes Q1 earnings reports from US …
17th April 2023
UK headline CPI probably fell in March, though core pressures remain strong (Wed.) We expect the PBOC to keep its 1-Year Loan Prime Rate on hold next week (Thu.) Flash PMIs for the euro-zone may point to a continued expansion in April (Fri.) Key Market …
14th April 2023
We think Peru’s central bank will keep its policy rate on hold at 7.75% (Thu.) US activity data for March may cast doubt on the case for a 25bp hike (Fri.) We expect Singapore’s central bank to leave policy unchanged (Fri.) Key Market Themes The recent …
13th April 2023
GDP growth was probably flat in the UK in February (07.00 BST) Industrial production is likely to have risen in the euro-zone in February (10.00 BST) Catch up on today’s Drop-in on what the latest US inflation data mean for the Fed here Key Market Themes …
12th April 2023
We think India’s CPI inflation fell below the RBI’s upper limit of 6% in March (13.00 BST) US CPI inflation probably dropped to 5.4% in March (13.30 BST) We expect the Bank of Canada to keep its policy rate unchanged (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes Amid …
11th April 2023
The next edition of the Capital Daily will be published on 11 th April 2023, after Easter Monday. We expect the US employment report to show the labour market is cooling (Fri.) Headline CPI inflation in China may have dropped below 1% in March (Tue.) We …
6th April 2023
The RBI will probably end its tightening cycle with a 25bp hike on Thursday (04.30 BST) Industrial production was probably flat in Germany in February (07.00 BST) Catch up on yesterday’s Drop-in on the outlook for global financial markets here Key Market …
5th April 2023
We expect the RBNZ to slow the pace of tightening and hike by 25bp (02.00 BST) The ISM Services Index is likely to show further signs of slower growth (15.00 BST) We think policymakers in Chile and Poland will keep interest rates on hold Key Market …
4th April 2023
Sign up to our Drop-In on our latest outlook for financial markets We expect policymakers to keep policy rates unchanged in Australia, at 3.6%… (04.30 BST) … as well as in Romania, at 7.0% (14.00 BST) Key Market Themes Although the decision by OPEC+ …
3rd April 2023
Despite only being three months old, 2023 has already seen several macro narratives play out in markets. “Soft landing” optimism in January was followed by a “no landing” narrative in February which has given way to concerns about a banking crisis in …
31st March 2023
We expect the RBA to pause its tightening cycle next week (Tue.) The National Bank of Poland will probably also keep rates on hold (Wed.) We think the US labour market cooled in March (Fri.) Key Market Themes Although a “narrowing” of the stock market …
China’s official PMIs are likely to show economic momentum fading in March (02.30 BST) We think euro-zone headline inflation fell in March, while core remained strong (10.00 BST) Real consumption in the US probably changed little in February (13.30 BST) …
30th March 2023
With the dust settling on the recent turmoil in US and European banks, economists from across our financial markets coverage assessed the damage to the outlook for bonds, equities and FX. Chief Markets Economist John Higgins and the team held an online …
We think Germany’s inflation rate fell sharply in March (12.00 BST) The central bank in South Africa will probably hike its policy rate by 25bp… (14.00 BST) … while policymakers in Egypt may deliver an aggressive 300bp hike Key Market Themes During the …
29th March 2023
Canada’s 2023 budget likely to focus on longer-term measures (Tue.) We expect Czechia’s central bank to leave its policy rate on hold… (Wed.) …and we think Thailand’s central bank will do likewise (Wed.) Key Market Themes The recent surge in the yield …
28th March 2023
We expect Hungary’s central bank to leave policy unchanged (13.00 BST) US Conference Board data may give an indication of any recent hit to sentiment (15.00 BST) Sign up here for tomorrow’s Drop-In on the risks around commercial real estate (16.00 BST) …
27th March 2023
We expect China PMIs for March to suggest economic momentum there is fading (Fri.) Updated UK Q4 GDP data may reveal a recession there after all (Fri.) Euro-zone headline CPI inflation probably dropped in March (Fri.) Key Market Themes We suspect some …
24th March 2023
We think UK retail sales edged up again in February (07.00 GMT) Flash PMIs for the euro-zone probably declined a little in March (09.00 GMT) We expect US durable goods orders fell in February (12.30 GMT) Key Market Themes With major central banks …
23rd March 2023
We expect the Fed to raise its policy rate by 25bp later on Wednesday (18.00 GMT) The SNB and Norges Bank are both likely to hike rates on Thursday (08.30 & 09.00 GMT) The latest UK inflation data support our view that the BoE will hike by 25bp too …
22nd March 2023
We think CPI inflation edged lower in the UK… (07.00 GMT) …and continued to soften in South Africa in February (08.00 GMT) The Fed will probably press ahead with a 25bp rate hike (18.00 GMT) Key Market Themes A risk-on mood has prevailed today amid …
21st March 2023
Clients can access all our latest research on the banking sector crisis here … … and catch-up on today’s Drop-in on the topic here Canada’s CPI inflation probably fell to 5.4% in February, from 5.9% in January (12.30 GMT) Key Market Themes Financial …
20th March 2023
We expect the Fed to press ahead with a 25bp hike next week (Wed.) The Bank of England and Norges Bank will probably also hike by 25bp (Thu.) But we think the SNB may raise rates by 50bp (Thu.) Key Market Themes Despite a better day for financial …
17th March 2023
We expect Russia’s central bank to leave its policy rate on hold (10.30 GMT) US industrial production probably fell back in February (13.15 GMT) Clients can watch today’s Drop-In on banking sector turmoil and central banks here Key Market Themes The ECB …
16th March 2023
We think Japan’s exports rebounded by 7.0% y/y on February (23.50 GMT) The ECB may not hike rates tomorrow due to fears of a banking crisis (13.15 GMT) Sign-up here for our US Drop-in on our outlook for the US economy (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes The …
15th March 2023
Euro-zone industrial production probably edged up in January (10.00 GMT) The UK’s Spring Budget may contain limited short-term fiscal loosening (12.30 GMT) We think that US retail sales fell by 0.8% in February (12.30 GMT) Key Market Themes How the …
14th March 2023
Clients can find our coverage on the SVB collapse on our designated landing page here … …and sign-up here for our Drop-In on the policy outlook for the ECB (10.00 GMT) We think US consumer price inflation fell only slightly, to 6.1%, in February (12.30 …
13th March 2023
We think US consumer price inflation fell slightly to around 6% in February (Tue.) Retail sales in China probably rebounded in January and February (Wed.) We expect the ECB to hike by a further 50bp (Thu.) Key Market Themes US government bond yields …
10th March 2023
The Bank of Japan could abandon Yield Curve Control tomorrow We think UK GDP growth picked up in January, but recession looms (07.00 GMT) We expect US payrolls data to confirm that January strength was a blip (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes We think …
9th March 2023
China inflation data likely to show rising price pressures (01.30 GMT) We expect interest rates to be left on hold in Malaysia… (07.00 GMT) …and also expect Peru’s central bank to leave rates unchanged (23.00 GMT) Key Market Themes Most “risky” assets …
8th March 2023
Germany’s industrial production probably fell a bit further in January (07.00 GMT) We think Poland’s central bank will leave its policy rate on hold… (13.00 GMT) …and the Bank of Canada will keep its policy rate unchanged as well (15.00 GMT) Key Market …
7th March 2023
We expect Australia’s central bank to hike by 25bp (04.30 GMT) Fed Chair Powell may reveal whether his outlook for interest rates has changed (15.00 GMT) We think China’s exports weakened, but imports strengthened, in January and February Key Market …
6th March 2023
We expect Australia’s RBA to hike by another 25bp (Tue.) Japan’s central bank will probably abandon Yield Curve Control (Thu./Fri.) We think US non-farm payrolls rose by 200,000 in February (Fri.) Key Market Themes Notwithstanding the partial …
3rd March 2023
We think inflation in Turkey eased slightly to 54% in February (07.00 GMT) Final PMIs in Europe may confirm that activity is holding up better than expected (09.00 GMT) We expect the US ISM services index to have fallen back in February (15.00 GMT) …
2nd March 2023
Strong data in France and Spain suggest to us euro-zone inflation rose in February (10.00 GMT) We think Brazil GDP figures will confirm the economic growth was flat in Q4 (12.00 GMT) Clients can sign-up here to our Drop-In on the impact of elections in …
1st March 2023
We think Australia’s GDP growth softened a touch in Q4 (00.30 GMT) Germany’s HICP inflation probably fell in January (13.00 GMT) We expect the ISM manufacturing index for February to have remained weak (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes We think the recent …
28th February 2023
While the ~0.3% return from US dollar cash between 31 st January and 24 th February was hardly impressive, cash nonetheless outperformed all of the other eighteen headline indices that we track. As data pointing to a still-hot US economy and stubborn …
We expect Hungary’s central bank to leave its policy rates on hold (13.00 GMT) US consumer confidence may have recovered a bit but is probably still low (15.00 GMT) Join our Drop-In on the long-run economic and market impacts of fracturing (15.00 GMT) …
27th February 2023
We think that euro-zone inflation fell again in February (Wed.) The China PMIs will probably show another acceleration in activity (Wed. & Fri.) We doubt that the February ISM surveys will point to stronger growth (Thu. & Fri.) Key Market Themes Despite …
24th February 2023
We think Japan’s headline CPI inflation rose to a four-decade high in January (23.30 GMT) US income and spending data is likely to show a strong rebound in consumption (13.30 GMT) We expect headline and core US PCE price indices to have risen by 0.5% …
23rd February 2023
The war in Ukraine. Ageing populations. Rising temperatures. Investors are having to grapple with a formidable range of uncertainties around the long-term outlook for the global economy and markets. Their challenge is compounded by the fracturing of the …
22nd February 2023
Turkey’s central bank will probably cut its policy rate by 100bp (11.00 GMT) We think Mexico’s CPI edged down to 7.6% in the first half of February (12.00 GMT) We expect policymakers in Korea to keep interest rates on hold Key Market Themes We doubt …
The big sell-off in both equities and bonds that was a feature of 2022 has arguably created scope for them to fare a bit better in the coming years by reducing their valuations. Nonetheless, we don’t think they will provide spectacular returns over the …
21st February 2023
We think the RBNZ will hike rates by an above-consensus 75bp (01.00 GMT) Final German HICP data will offer more clarity on inflation’s drivers there (07.00 GMT) February FOMC minutes may give more insight into the Fed’s thinking (19.00 GMT) Key Market …
The February composite PMI probably rose further above 50 in the euro-zone… (09.00 GMT) … and remained below 50 in the UK and the US We think CPI inflation was unchanged at 6.3% in Canada in January (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes Those hoping for stellar …
20th February 2023
