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Unlike the consensus, we doubt that the RBNZ will cut rates (01.00 GMT) We think that euro-zone industrial production rose a bit in September (10.00 GMT) Fed Chair Powell due to testify to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress (11.00 GMT) Key Market …
12th November 2019
President Trump’s speech may provide news on trade negotiations (17.00 GMT) Weaker UK labour market figures would make an early rate cut more likely (09.30 GMT) Norway’s economy probably continued to outperform in Q3 (07.00 GMT) Key Market Themes In spite …
11th November 2019
China spending and activity probably held up well in October (Thursday) We think that Germany’s economy narrowly avoided a recession in Q3 (Thursday) Rates cuts likely in Mexico and Egypt (Thursday) Key Market Themes Until President Trump ’s negative …
8th November 2019
China’s exports are likely to have continued to contract last month We forecast that employment in Australia fell by 10,000 in October (13.30 GMT) US index of consumer confidence was probably little changed in November (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes …
7th November 2019
Central banks of Thailand and Iceland both likely to cut rates by 25bp Spanish and Italian PMIs probably dropped last month We think that euro-zone retail sales fell in September (10.00 GMT) Key Market Themes Optimism about a trade deal between the US and …
5th November 2019
One reason to think that US equities will outperform US corporate bonds over the next couple of years is a larger-than-average wedge between their valuations. Comparing the valuations of US equities and US corporate bonds is not straightforward. One …
We expect a small rebound in the US ISM non-manufacturing index (Tue.) The central bank of Iceland is likely to cut its policy rate for the 5 th time this year (Tue.) … … while the Bank of England will probably stand pat for now (Thu.) Key Market Themes …
1st November 2019
China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI probably dropped back in October (01.45 GMT) Inflation in Switzerland may have turned negative (07.30 GMT) We suspect that non-farm payrolls increased by just 25,000 due to the GM strike (12.30 GMT) Key Market Themes We …
31st October 2019
The Fed will probably cut interest rates by a further 25bp (Wednesday, 19.00 GMT) We think that the Bank of Japan will leave rates unchanged after its policy review (Thursday) China’s PMIs are likely to have dropped a bit in October (Thursday, 01.00 GMT) …
30th October 2019
We think that US GDP slowed to 1.5% annualised in Q3 (12.30 BST) Bank of Canada is likely to keep rates on hold, but cut its growth forecasts (14.00 BST) Another 25bp rate cut by the Fed is widely expected (18.00 BST) Key Market Themes The 10-year US …
29th October 2019
UK PM Boris Johnson will probably agree to delay Brexit until 31 st January at the latest … … and might get Parliament’s approval for a general election in early-December US consumer confidence probably rebounded in October (14.00 GMT) Key Market Themes …
28th October 2019
We don’t think that asset valuations in general have risen to unsustainably-high levels, even though many are now far above their long-run averages. So we see no need for major corrections in asset prices. It is often argued that an asset’s equilibrium …
Globalisation has probably peaked and could be partly reversed as a result of technological change and protectionist policies. This would have significant implications for asset markets, which have generally benefitted from increased economic and …
24th October 2019
EU leaders to discuss whether to grant a delay to Brexit and, if so, for how long Germany’s IfO Business Climate Index (BCI) probably fell slightly in October (09.00 BST) Central Bank of Russia likely to cut its policy rate by 50bp, to 6.50% (11.30 BST) …
We expect central banks in Indonesia and Turkey to cut their policy rates Internal divisions will remain the focus at Draghi’s last ECB meeting GM strike probably took a toll on US durable goods orders in September (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes Higher …
23rd October 2019
UK Parliament scheduled to vote on Withdrawal Agreement Bill (Tuesday, 19.00 BST) Euro-zone consumer confidence probably worsened in October (Wednesday, 15.00 BST) Central bank of Chile likely to cut its policy rate by 25bp (Wednesday, 22.00 BST) Key …
22nd October 2019
Ongoing protests in Chile unlikely to have much of an impact on financial markets UK government spending probably rose in September (09.30 BST) We estimate that retail sales in Canada picked up in August (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes The comparatively …
21st October 2019
UK Parliament’s vote on the new Brexit deal is likely to be very tight (Saturday) No policy changes likely at Draghi’s last meeting as ECB President (Thursday) Central banks in China, Turkey, Indonesia and Russia will probably cut rates Key Market Themes …
18th October 2019
We still think that returns from many “safe” assets, including most developed market government bonds, will fail to beat those from US dollar cash over the rest of 2019, even as “risky” assets, notably equities, REITs and corporate bonds, struggle against …
China’s industrial production and retail sales probably recovered in September … … but we still think the economy slowed in Q3 as a whole (03.00 BST) Fed Clarida’s speech could shed some light on the probability of an October hike Key Market Themes Stock …
17th October 2019
Retail sales in the UK are likely to have fallen again in September (09.30 BST) We estimate that US manufacturing output fell by 0.5% in September … … but industrial production probably declined by less as utilities output jumped Key Market Themes So much …
16th October 2019
The Bank of Korea will probably cut its policy rate by 25bp (02.00 BST) UK inflation is likely to have rebounded a bit last month (09.30 BST) We estimate that US retail sales rose by 0.2% m/m in September (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes We think that …
15th October 2019
We think that local-currency and USD-hedged returns from developed market government bonds will generally be poor through the end of 2020, but that USD- unhedged returns will be positive next year. Our detailed views of monetary policy can be found in our …
The UK and EU will try to strike a Brexit deal at a summit ending on Thursday US manufacturing output probably slumped in September We expect the Bank of Korea to cut its policy rate on Wednesday Key Market Themes Equity and bond markets have remained at …
11th October 2019
High-level trade talks between the US & China probably won’t lead to a comprehensive deal The central bank of Peru might cut its policy rate by 25bp, to 2.25% (00.00 BST) We think that consumer confidence in the US improved slightly in October (15.00 BST) …
10th October 2019
Even if US and China reach a partial trade deal this week, we doubt that it will last Account of ECB’s September meeting to highlight divisions among policymakers Latest round of tariffs probably drove US CPI inflation higher (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes …
9th October 2019
Although US equity REITs still have comparatively high yields and low valuations, as well as solid fundamentals, we think that their outperformance of US equities will end given the outlook for Treasuries. 2019 has been a bonanza year so far for equity …
Fed Chair Jerome Powell might give hints about future path of interest rates Germany’s industrial production probably declined in August (07.00 BST) We think that US producer prices fell a bit last month (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes As the euro-zone …
7th October 2019
FOMC minutes for September to shed some light on the Fed’s thinking (Wednesday) The account of the last ECB meeting may show the extent of division in the council (Thursday) US CPI probably jumped, as the latest tariffs on Chinese imports start to bite …
4th October 2019
UK services PMI likely to have dropped back in September (09.30 BST) We think that euro-zone retail sales fell again in August (10.00 BST) US ISM non-manufacturing index probably edged down only slightly last month (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes The recent …
2nd October 2019
Switzerland’s CPI inflation probably remained subdued in September (07.30 BST) We expect the policy rate to be cut in Iceland but remain unchanged in Poland US ADP’s measure of private-sector employment likely to be subdued (13.15 BST) Key Market Themes …
1st October 2019
RBA likely to cut its key policy rate by 25bp, to 0.75% (05.30 BST) We think that euro-zone headline inflation fell to about 0.8% in September (10.00 BST) The US ISM manufacturing index probably rebounded this month (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes While …
30th September 2019
Although we forecast a correction in the US stock market later this year, we think it will outperform Treasuries by a large margin in 2020-21. This view rests on an assumption that inflation will remain quite low, but positive. Other inflation outcomes …
Chinese PMIs will probably show that the economy remains under pressure (Monday) RBA likely to cut its key policy rate by 25bp, to 0.75% (Tuesday) We expect a subdued 125,000 gain in US non-farm payrolls (Friday) Key Market Themes Euro-zone government …
27th September 2019
This short Focus is a primer on our Asset Allocation Service , which we launched in September 2019. It is split into three sections. Section 1 provides an overview of the service. Section 2 outlines our methodology for projecting returns. Section 3 …
Mexico’s central bank will probably cut rates later on Thursday We think that the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator fell to a 4½-year low (10.00 BST) US personal spending data likely to show another rise in consumption in August (13.30 BST) Key …
26th September 2019
UK MPs to return to Parliament on Wednesday following Supreme Court ruling We think that the Bank of Thailand will cut its policy rate by 25bp (08.05 BST) But the New Zealand and Czech central banks will probably leave policy unchanged Key Market Themes …
24th September 2019
We think that the German Ifo Business Climate Indicator fell to a near-decade low (09.00 BST) UK Supreme Court to give its ruling on the prorogation of Parliament (10.30 BST) The central banks of Colombia and Hungary will probably leave rates unchanged …
23rd September 2019
We think that this year’s joint surge in the prices of US equities and government bonds is on its last legs, given the outlook for monetary policy and corporate earnings. Share prices get a boost when there is a reduction in the rate at which investors …
Economic sentiment indices for the euro-zone and Germany probably edged up in September We expect the central banks of Mexico, Thailand, the Philippines and Egypt to cut rates Those in New Zealand, Colombia, the Czech Republic and Hungary are likely to …
20th September 2019
A drop in fresh food prices probably weighed on Japan’s headline CPI inflation (00.50 BST) Canada’s retail sales are likely to have bounced back in July (13.30 BST) We suspect that euro-zone consumer confidence deteriorated in September (15.00 BST) Key …
19th September 2019
This week’s FOMC meeting reinforces our view that many “safe” assets – such as some government bonds and precious metals – will return less than cash in US dollar terms later this year, as central banks in the US and elsewhere fail to ease by more than …
The Fed is highly likely to deliver a 25bp cut at today’s FOMC meeting We expect Brazil’s central bank to cut its policy rate by 50bp this evening But both the Bank of England and BoJ will probably keep rates on hold Key Market Themes The surge in US …
18th September 2019
We think that Japan’s export values dropped by more than 10% y/y in August (08.50 BST) The FOMC will probably cut rates by 25bp for the second time in a row (19.00 BST) Brazil’s central bank is also likely to lower its main policy rate Key Market Themes …
17th September 2019
FOMC meeting starting on Tuesday widely expected to result in a 25bp rate cut UK-EU Brexit talks set to “intensify”, increasing optimism about a deal We think that US industrial production rebounded by 0.2% m/m in August (14.15 BST) Key Market Themes …
16th September 2019
Cyclical headwinds to activity and spending in China may have abated slightly (Mon) US industrial production probably rebounded by about 0.2% m/m in August (Tue) Fed highly likely to cut rates again, but we think that the BoJ and BoE will stand pat Key …
13th September 2019
Peru’s central bank is likely to cut its policy rate later today Euro-zone pay growth probably picked up in Q2, but we doubt it will last (10.00 BST) We suspect that US retail sales rose only slightly in August (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes Although the …
12th September 2019
The central bank of Poland is likely to stand pat, and strike a more hawkish tone Mexico’s industrial production probably edged down in July (12.00 BST) We think that both headline and core producer price inflation picked up in the US (13.30 BST) Key …
10th September 2019
UK MPs are likely to vote against PM Johnson’s second bid for a general election this evening Climbing food prices probably pushed China’s inflation higher in August (02.30 BST) We think that core inflation in Norway and Sweden edged up last month Key …
9th September 2019
UK MPs are likely to vote against PM Johnson’s second bid for a general election (Monday) We expect the ECB to cut deposit rate by 10bp and reinforce forward guidance (Thursday) US retail sales probably increased slightly in August (Friday) Key Market …
6th September 2019
