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We think UK retail sales fell further in May as consumption shifted to services (07.00 BST) Markit PMIs for the euro-zone are likely to indicate a continued expansion in July (09.00 BST) Russia’s central bank is likely to raise its policy rate by 100bp …
22nd July 2021
We no longer expect equities and corporate bonds to outperform “safe” government bonds by anything like as much as we did a couple of quarters ago, and we continue to forecast that some other “risky” assets, including most commodities, will struggle over …
21st July 2021
We think central banks in Indonesia and South Africa will leave policy on hold tomorrow Inflation in Mexico probably remained high in the first half of July (12.00 BST) The ECB will probably amend its policy statement to account for its new target (12.45 …
UK government borrowing probably undershot the OBR’s forecast in June (07.00 BST) We think Korea’s exports levelled off in the first 20 days of June (00.00 BST) Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their implication here Key Market Themes We …
20th July 2021
Inflation in Japan may have turned positive in June (00.30 BST) China’s benchmark loan prime rate unlikely to change despite RRR cut (02.30 BST) US housing starts probably rebounded in June (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes In recent weeks, it has often …
19th July 2021
ECB unlikely to change policy settings, but may amend forward guidance (Thu.) We expect Russia’s central bank to hike its policy rate by 100bp (Thu.) Flash composite PMIs probably rose in the euro-zone, but fell in the UK, this month (Fri.) Key Market …
16th July 2021
We expect a 25bp policy rate hike in Chile later on Wednesday (23.00 BST) We think that activity data will point to a further slowdown in China’s economy (03.00 BST) Supply constraints may have caused US manufacturing output to fall in May (14.15 BST) Key …
14th July 2021
New Zealand’s central bank is likely to strike a hawkish tone (02.00 BST) UK headline inflation probably edged up last month (07.00 BST) We think that the Bank of Canada will taper its asset purchases further (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes While the …
13th July 2021
The muted reaction in the markets so far to today’s above-consensus surge in US inflation presumably reflects a view that it won’t have as much of a bearing on economic growth or monetary policy as periods of high inflation have sometimes had in the past. …
We think that US core CPI inflation rose above 4% last month (13.30 BST) China’s June trade data should show how much disruption port closures caused Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key Market Themes The …
12th July 2021
ECB announces revamp of its policy framework, including new inflation target China’s June inflation data may point to easing price pressures (02.30 BST) UK GDP probably grew strongly in May as COVID-19 restrictions lifted (07.00 BST) Key Market Themes …
8th July 2021
It has become harder to make the case that the stock market in the US will fare worse than those in the rest of the developed world, now that the “rotation” trade has fizzled out. Nonetheless, we still think there are other reasons to expect the …
7th July 2021
We expect Poland’s central bank to stay on hold but revise up its forecast for GDP and inflation Inflation probably remained unchanged in Mexico last month (12.00 BST) … … while inflation is likely to have edged up in Brazil and Chile (13.00 BST) Key …
Fed minutes may shed more light on officials’ latest thinking about tapering (14.00 BST) We expect Germany’s industrial production to have edged up in May (07.00 BST) Russia’s headline inflation probably rose last month (17.00 BST) Key Market Themes …
6th July 2021
EZ retail sales for May likely to underline the strength of economic recovery (Tue.) FOMC minutes may provide detail on tapering discussion (Wed.) Reopening probably boosted UK GDP in May (Fri.) Key Market Themes Although the 10-year Treasury yield hardly …
2nd July 2021
We expect US non-farm payrolls to have risen by around 500,000 in June (13.30 BST) The US trade deficit probably widened again in May (13.30 BST) Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key Market Themes The US …
1st July 2021
The received wisdom is that inflation is worse for government bonds than for equities. Yet the S&P 500 has fared worse than 10-year Treasuries in a couple of periods of high inflation in the US since the 1960s. The definition of a period of high inflation …
We think Sweden’s Riksbank could signal a rate hike in late 2023 (08.30 BST) June’s ISM Manufacturing Index may provide insight on recent supply shortages (15.00 BST) Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key …
30th June 2021
While the drop back in oil prices which we forecast would probably mean an end to the recent outperformance of the energy sector, we doubt it would halt several other features of the rotation trade. Notwithstanding their wobble over the past week or so, …
We expect that China’s manufacturing PMIs edged down in June (02.00 BST) The flash estimate of euro-zone HICP inflation probably fell slightly in June (10.00 BST) Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key Market …
29th June 2021
UK consumer credit likely to have increased as the economy reopened (09.30 BST) We think economic sentiment in the euro-zone continued to improve (10.00 BST) Colombia’s central bank will probably stay on hold, but sound more hawkish Key Market Themes …
28th June 2021
Euro-zone inflation likely to have risen above 2% as the economy re-opened (Wed.) June PMIs for Asia may suggest that demand for the region’s exports has peaked (Thu.) We think labour supply shortages continued to limit gains in US payrolls this month …
25th June 2021
We doubt that US equity REITs would significantly outperform US equities in a period of higher inflation. US REITs have performed strongly in Q2 so far, with the 13.2% return from the FTSE Nareit Equity REIT index beating the 7.5% return from the MSCI USA …
24th June 2021
We think that US real consumption fell slightly in May… … while change in the core PCE deflator remained high, at 0.6% m/m (13.30 BST) Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key Market Themes The yield of 10-year …
Germany’s Ifo survey likely to rise again this month (09.00 BST) We don’t expect BoE to suggest it is any closer to tightening policy (12.00 BST) Banxico likely to look through rising inflation (19.00 BST) Key Market Themes As the dust finally begins to …
23rd June 2021
Fed Chair Powell may comment on the FOMC apparent hawkish shift in House testimony Q&A PMIs could reveal whether shortages continued to weigh on manufacturing output in June We expect the Czech central bank to hike its policy rate by 25bp, to 0.5% (13.30 …
22nd June 2021
Euro-zone and UK composite PMIs probably rose further in June (Wed.) BoE meeting should provide clues as to how concerned it is about rising inflation (Thu.) We think US durable orders rose in May, but real consumption declined Key Market Themes We think …
18th June 2021
Although portfolio rebalancing by US pension funds may have played a role in depressing Treasury yields, it is likely to have been a small one in the grand scheme of things. After all, they own only a small share of the Treasury market and the actions of …
17th June 2021
We think UK retail sales rose further above their pre-pandemic level in May (07.00 BST) The Bank of Japan may extend its emerging lending facility Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key Market Themes The market …
We expect both the SNB and Norges Bank to leave interest rates on hold… (8.30/9.00 BST) … and Turkey’s central bank is likely to also stand pat, for now (12.00 BST) Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key Market …
16th June 2021
The retreat in US Treasury yields over the past month or so seems at odds with the US economy’s fundamentals, and we doubt that it will be sustained. Our forecast that the 10-year yield will end 2021 well above its current level informs our view that US …
Fed may begin discussion of how to eventually begin tapering its asset purchases (19.00 BST) We think industrial production growth in China slowed last month (03.00 BST) We expect the central bank of Brazil to raise its policy rate by 75bp to 4.25% (22.30 …
15th June 2021
UK unemployment rate probably fell while wage growth rose in April (07.00 BST) We think that US retail sales fell back from a high level in May (13.30 BST) US industrial production may have risen at a slower pace last month (14.15 BST) Key Market Themes …
14th June 2021
The record allocation of US households (and non-profit organisations) to equities chimes with the broader evidence that the valuation of the US stock market is high by historical standards. With that in mind, while we are not forecasting a crash any time …
11th June 2021
US consumer confidence and inflation expectations probably picked up in April (15.00 BST) We think UK GDP expanded by 3% m/m in April (07.00 BST) Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key Market Themes Despite the …
10th June 2021
We are still anticipating an extremely rapid recovery in the global economy over the rest of this year. But even so, it has become more difficult to make the case that returns from risky assets across the board will remain very strong, at least in the …
ECB may prepare the ground for gradual tapering of PEPP purchases later this year (12.45 BST) US core CPI inflation probably hit a 28-year high in May (13.30 BST) Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key Market …
9th June 2021
We think May producer price inflation in China rose to its highest level since 2008 (02.30 BST) Central banks in Canada, Poland and Chile are likely to leave rates unchanged Headline inflation probably fell in Mexico in May, but rose in Brazil Key Market …
8th June 2021
Industrial production in Germany probably continued to expand in April (07.00 BST) We forecast only 1.5% Q1 GDP growth in South Africa due the latest virus wave (10.30 BST) We think Chile’s central bank will keep its guidance of tightening later this year …
7th June 2021
We think US core CPI inflation to rose from 3.0% to 3.7% in May (Thu.) ECB likely to drop pledge to keep PEPP purchases significantly higher than in Jan./Feb. (Thu.) The central bank of Russia will probably hike its policy rate by 25bp to 2.25% (Fri.) Key …
4th June 2021
Today’s US Employment Report has failed to awaken the Treasury market from its slumber this quarter. We think, however, that long-dated yields will rise again in due course after their surge earlier in 2021. Admittedly, over the next few years we don’t …
We think that US nonfarm payrolls rose by around 500k in May (13.30 BST) Employment in Canada may have fallen again last month (13.30 BST) See our highest conviction macro calls and their market implications here Key Market Themes After a turbulent first …
3rd June 2021
We think that Australia’s GDP expanded by about 0.5% q/q in Q1 (02.30 BST) UK consumer credit data are likely to show that card spending picked up (09.30 BST) Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key Market Themes …
1st June 2021
Although Japan’s stock market has substantially underperformed its counterparts in the US, UK and euro-zone during the past few months, we don’t expect it to remain a laggard. Chart 1 shows the relative performance of MSCI total return indices in US …
28th May 2021
We expect US non-farm payroll to have risen by 500,000 this month (Fri.) ISM surveys are likely to suggest that supply constraints in the US intensified (Tue. & Thu.) We think China’s manufacturing and services PMIs edged up in May (Mon. & Thu.) Key …
We think that US real consumption was unchanged in April (13.30 BST) The EC’s measure of euro-zone consumer confidence probably rose in May (10.00 BST) Read our latest views on currencies on our recently launched FX Markets Service here Key Market Themes …
27th May 2021
We think US durable goods orders grew by a healthy 4.2% m/m in April (13.30 BST) With inflation subdued, we think the Bank of Korea will leave interest rates unchanged Read our latest views on currencies on our recently launched FX Markets Service here …
26th May 2021
RBNZ likely to leave policy settings on hold despite new housing mandate (03.00 BST) Unemployment in Sweden may have edged down in April (08.30 BST) Read our latest views on currency markets on our recently launched FX Markets Service here Key Market …
25th May 2021
The Ifo Survey in Germany probably rose again in May (07.00 BST) Inflation in Brazil is likely to have jumped, leading to tighter monetary policy (13.00 BST) We expect Hungary’s central bank to leave rates unchanged but update guidance (13.00 BST) Key …
24th May 2021
Although we think that the recent outperformance of the energy and materials sectors will soon come to an end, we still expect the financials sector to continue to fare better over the next few years than sectors, such as information technology (IT), …
